The golf world joins the collective sports world this week as the Olympic Games from Paris take center stage. This is something we don’t get too often, with a chance to see golfers from across the globe play for their country and a gold medal. With it comes a complete overhaul of a lot of the normalcies we are used to on the PGA Tour. This is more analogous to the former WGC tournaments where you have 60 or so players that are all guaranteed four rounds. That’s the format here and the challenge in trying to find some outright bets. Here are the Olympic golf best bets this year — starting with Jon Rahm (and a model pick, for good measure).
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Olympic Golf Odds, Picks & Betting Predictions for 2024
Before diving into Olympic Golf bets, we want to introduce you to OddsShopper’s premium model. This model consistently generates positive expected value (+EV) with our market-based betting model picks.
The best value is an MLB bet, with Cristopher Sanchez under 5.5 strikeouts getting -165 odds at BetMGM and -184 true odds (which is how we evaluate breakeven points on our props and bets).
You can find positive expected value at several books, as anything longer than -165 is going to be profitable long-term. However, BetMGM and ESPN BET are the best.
Those BetMGM odds of -165 make this bet positive by 4% EV, and the OS Rating of 7 is strong. For reference, this year our strikeouts bets that have OS Ratings of 7 or more have won 58.7% of the time, earning a 14.8% positive ROI. If you took all these bets at their recommended bet size, you’d be up over $27,000!
This type of bet is positive value long-term — but it is long-term. As such, don’t get down when you lose one, and don’t get too excited by individual wins.
And now let’s get back to the greens with our Olympic Golf PGA best bets.
Olympic Golf Odds & Tournament Preview
| Golfer | Odds |
|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | +360 |
| Xander Schauffele | +550 |
| Rory McIlroy | +750 |
| Jon Rahm | +1000 |
| Collin Morikawa | +1100 |
| Ludvig Aberg | +1400 |
| Shane Lowry | +2200 |
| Joaquin Niemann | +2200 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +2200 |
| Tom Kim | +2800 |
There are 60 players from 32 countries looking to grab a medal and some history for their country. This time the players are taking on Le Golf National – a course that has been a staple of European tournaments for quite some time. The Albatros course is a par 71 measuring around 7,200 yards. We saw this venue for the 2018 Ryder Cup and have some data points to go off of, even if overall we are flying blind.
One thing we know is that danger is lurking all over this course with water and bunkers protecting many of the greens. Length isn’t a huge defense, so both bombers and shorter hitters can thrive here. What should separate is the iron and scrambling as golfers need to control these approach shots and be able to work in and out of trouble.
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Olympic Golf Outright Pick #1: Jon Rahm
Jon Rahm is sitting at a reasonable number and comes in with a little bit of momentum. Of course, unlike with most of the favorites who are playing on the PGA Tour, we have to decipher LIV results, but Rahm finally secured a win last week and showed some flashes a few weeks back at the Open. We know he can play and tackle any conditions, has experience at this venue and seems to have the game in a solid spot heading into these Olympic games.
The betting board is a little tricky due to the fact there are only 60 players in the field, thus giving everyone additional win equity. Then you have to factor in some countries having a minimal chance of competing and subsequently reduce the number of reasonable outright winners. Getting Rahm still at 10-1 looks great given those circumstances and his recent form, plus it won’t be a shock if he wins the gold medal.
Best Bet for Olympic Golf: Jon Rahm (+1000 at FanDuel)
Olympic Golf Outright Pick #2: Tommy Fleetwood
It would be fitting in a lot of ways if Fleetwood took down the Olympics, as it’s hard to gauge where that falls in the power rankings of golfing accomplishments. Last time we saw Fleetwood it was a disaster as the wind got the best of him in Scotland and he missed the missed cut. Before that, it had been quality results week in and week out thanks primarily to ball striking. Fleetwood’s iron game is built for a course like this, and he has plenty of experience here and at similar Euro venues.
Of course, the easy knock on Fleetwood is he simply does not win tournaments even while making it on the first page of the leaderboard. There’s no denying that Fleetwood hasn’t capitalized on all the chances, but those narratives can change quickly. It wasn’t that long ago that Xander Schauffele simply couldn’t close in majors, and now he has two this year and put that talking point to bed. At 22-1 in this field, Fleetwood deserves a spot on the card.
Best Bet for Olympic Golf: Tommy Fleetwood (+2200 at FanDuel)
Olympic Golf Outright Pick #3: Christiaan Bezuidenhout
One of the many things I like about this setup is there is not a ton of info on how the course will play. Irons are key and a timely short game is important, but there are a lot of different skillsets that could be ideal. Targeting Christiaan Bezuidenhout always carries some risk, but in an outright market we are only concerned about ceiling. If this course plays to a more driver-heavy slant, then he is in big trouble; if it doesn’t, this is a good spot for him. Bezuidenhout is another who struggled at the Open, but given those conditions, I don’t factor that much in at all. He has a world-class short game and seems to be able to gain strokes putting no matter what the surface or conditions.
There is a rogue 80-1 for Bezuidenhout on FanDuel, and with all the uncertainties and unquantifiable variables around Olympic golf, it’s primed to see a few surprises contend for medals. At this price point, I am willing to take a flier on Bezuidenhout.
Best Bet for Olympic Golf: Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+8000 at FanDuel)
OddsShopper’s PGA Betting Tools & Tips
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