Major season has officially concluded with the Open Championship last week. Xander Schauffele stamped an incredible 2024 season with his second major of the year (and his career), but there is more golf left. The PGA Tour heads back to America, specifically Minneapolis, for the 3M Open. It is not the same caliber of event that as the Open, but there is still money to be made and a field full of interesting options. From a betting standpoint, this event is a completely different test, as there could easily be a first-time winner and the board is littered with players vying for a breakthrough. Let’s dive into the PGA best bets for the 2024 3M Open.
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3M Open Odds, Picks & Betting Predictions for 2024
Before we get into the 3M Open bets, we need to tell you about OddsShopper’s premium model that consistently generates positive expected value (+EV) with our market-based betting model picks.
The best value for now is coming from MLB, where Matt Waldron under 3.5 strikeouts has +128 odds at FanDuel but +122 true odds (how we calculate the breakeven point on bets).
This bet is +EV at only one book, as all of the other operators have accounted for the modest 45% expected win rate. However, FanDuel is lagging behind, giving us a favorable opportunity here.
Those FanDuel odds make this bet positive by 2.8% EV, and the OS Rating of 2 is workable. For reference, this year our strikeout bets with at least a 2 OS Rating are 2,299-1,741, leading to a strong 10.9% positive ROI. If you tailed all such bets in our model this season, you would be up over $58,000!
Bets like this one are profitable long-term — but it is long-term, so don’t be frustrated by individual losses and don’t get too high on individual wins.
And now let’s get into our 3M Open PGA best bets.
3M Open Odds & Tournament Preview
| Golfer | Odds |
|---|---|
| Tony Finau | +1100 |
| Sam Burns | +1800 |
| Akshay Bhatia | +2200 |
| Sahith Theegala | +2200 |
| Luke Clanton | +2500 |
| Billy Horschel | +2800 |
| Keegan Bradley | +3000 |
| Tom Hoge | +3300 |
| Keith Mitchell | +3500 |
| Taylor Pendrith | +3500 |
TPC Twin Cities is the venue, and it’s a course with a lot of different aspects to it. First and foremost, danger lurks all over in the form of water, so get ready for some extra variance. If golfers don’t end up in the drink, most likely they will find a birdie opportunity, as this course is an ultimate risk/reward on a lot of holes.
The layout itself isn’t overly challenging, and this should resemble the events prior to the Open where -20 was a potential winner. Driving distance and total driving both are key components of this layout, and players will most likely be aggressive off the tee. If they stay out of the thick stuff and the water, they will have a chance come Sunday.
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3M Open Outright Pick #1: Akshay Bhatia
The field isn’t nearly the caliber of a major field, opening the door for Bhatia to be among the favorites. It’s been a year of multi-time winners on tour, so why not look to Bhatia to add another trophy after his win back in April at Valero? He fits so many of the skills for this course, from aggressive driving to going low in birdie fests to coming in with quality form outside of last week’s major. I’m drawing basically nothing from an event in Europe that had links-style golf and weather he will not see here.
Bhatia doesn’t have any course history here, but that is almost a positive since his price would be even lower if he had some past success. He just was runner-up at the Rocket Mortgage and fifth at the Travelers, both of which fit in terms of how difficult this TPC layout will be. At 22-1, Bhatia is a playable, top-end option and will lead off my outright card.
PGA Best Bet for the 3M Open: Akshay Bhatia (+2200 at FanDuel)
3M Open Outright Pick #2: Patrick Rodgers
Unlike Bhatia, Rodgers is still searching for that elusive breakthrough on tour. He’s been so close many times, and if he is going to get one, it’s most likely going to happen at an event with a weak field and favorable scoring conditions. Rodgers has an off-tee/putting combo that is always a recipe for high-end finishes when both are clicking at the same time.
He has made four of five cuts but does not have a lot of top-end finishes in recent weeks. His putter has been electric, as it usually is, but Rodgers needs the irons to improve if he wants to threaten the top of the leaderboard. He has found the weekend in all three of his appearances at this venue, and he’s drifted to 50-1 in the outright market.
Given this field, I am willing to roll the dice on this finally being the week for Rodgers to finish one off.
PGA Best Bet for the 3M Open: Patrick Rodgers (+5000 at FanDuel)
3M Open Outright Pick #3: Emiliano Grillo
I normally restrain myself from adding Grillo to every single betting article of the season, but I have to go to him again here. He’s probably my favorite golfer on tour, someone I always look to at long odds. He doesn’t even have huge odds this week, as the price has come down into the 55-1 range across the industry. That’s a number worth adding to the card, as this is a great fit for Grillo in a lot of ways. He last found the winner’s circle at a much more difficult test and a winning score of -8, but he’s more suited for easier conditions.
Recently Grillo hasn’t done anything eye popping, with a lot of middling finishes. That said, the results aren’t overly concerning when you factor in the events he’s played and how little relevance they are to the 3M. Grillo was 43rd at the Open, missed a cut in Scotland and was 41st at the US Open within his last four starts on tour. An uneventful Travelers result was in the middle of that, but overall he’s been playing stronger events at much more challenging courses. If he can get back to elite iron play and some fluke putting, then Grillo has a shot here.
PGA Best Bet for the 3M Open: Emiliano Grillo (+5500 at FanDuel)
OddsShopper’s PGA Betting Tools & Tips
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