The second leg of the PGA Tour FedEx Cup is here, which means the field continues to shrink and the stakes keep growing. Last week got things started in Memphis, and there was no shortage of drama for those vying for the trophy and others trying to secure their spot in the top 50 for the BMW Championship this week. Castle Rock, Colo., is the location, and the 50 golfers who remain all have the same goal to get to the Tour Championship with a chance next week. Now let’s dive into the PGA best bets for the 2024 BMW Championship.
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BMW Championship Odds, Picks & PGA Best Bets for 2024
BMW Championship Odds & Tournament Preview
| Golfer | Odds |
|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | +330 |
| Xander Schauffele | +550 |
| Rory McIlroy | +1200 |
| Collin Morikawa | +1600 |
| Patrick Cantlay | +1800 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | +1800 |
| Viktor Hovland | +1800 |
| Ludvig Aberg | +2200 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +2500 |
| Wyndham Clark | +3000 |
The course is a par-72 layout that measures just north of 8,000 yards. Yes, you read that right, and I had to double check, but you have to remember the elevation in Colorado makes it less absurd. It seems like a standard ball striker’s paradise where precision irons will be key. Barring some terrible weather, scoring will be there even with the distance, and guys should be able to attack these pins.
Strokes gained on approach, birdie-or-better percentage and putting on bentgrass will all be nice stats to favor this week. Despite only 50 guys to choose from, the field is loaded and plenty could find themselves in the hunt come Sunday.
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BMW Championship PGA Best Bet: Viktor Hovland
This does feel a little like chasing a big result from the previous week, but Hovland managed to do just that. He had not been having a great season as of late but came to Memphis on a mission, and the runner-up finish was impressive. He gained over five strokes with the irons, added another three off the tee and absolutely looked in form. The around-the-green game was predictably lacking, but at this venue with calm conditions, I don’t expect that to be a big deal. The biggest question coming here is, was last week a turning of the corner or a blip on the radar?
Given how this course plays, Hovland sets up perfectly to be successful. He brings elite off-tee game, and if his irons continue, then there’s no reason he won’t be in the hunt again on Sunday. The odds took a hit because of the result from last week, but at the same time, that form from him is enough to buy in.
BMW Championship Best Bet: Viktor Hovland (18-1 at FanDuel)
BMW Championship PGA Best Bet: Tony Finau
Lately, when you think of pure ball strikers, Finau comes to mind. His approach numbers this year are among the best on tour, and it seems sustainable. Last week was an uneventful 16th-place finish, but the irons still gained Finau nearly four strokes on approach. Outside the Open Championship, which was a weather-induced disaster, he has seven finishes of top 20 or better, and that consistency can’t be ignored.
The knock on Finau is whether or not he can close the door when in contention. That is a reasonable critique, but given his run of form even against the best fields on tour this year, Finau is worth a look here. Of course, you could opt for a more conservative approach with a top-10 or head-to-head, but he belongs on the outright card. Finau has a shot to lead any field in strokes gained on approach, and that alone puts him in play at 33-1.
BMW Championship Best Bet: Tony Finau (33-1 at FanDuel)
BMW Championship PGA Best Bet: Justin Thomas
I am opting for a more rounded outright card than usual this week since the bottom of the board doesn’t look amazing. We talked a little about this at the FedEx St. Jude: These events have so much win equity up top that it is hard to make a case for a true longshot. Given how Thomas has played this year at times, you might regard him as a longshot, but he has the firepower to win major events. It has been a lackluster 2024 campaign for Thomas, who did not do enough by his standards at the biggest events. Even with all that negativity, his 40-1 odds in the outright market are pretty enticing.
The pain point all year for Thomas has been not syncing the irons and putter. He has these fantastic ball-striking performances and absolutely awful putting, or in some rare cases the exact opposite. Last week in Memphis he gained another 3.3 strokes on approach and combatted that with exactly the same 3.3 lost on the greens. Since March, Thomas has gained three or more strokes on approach six times, but of those events, he only gained strokes putting in one. That’s five wasted top-end ball-striking performances. Is this the week he puts it all together? Your guess is as good as mine, but at 40-1, Thomas is a good bet in the hope that the putter and irons can eventually get paired together.
BMW Championship Best Bet: Justin Thomas (40-1 at FanDuel)
Along with these BMW Championship bets, OddsShopper’s model is constantly delivering positive expected value with its market-based +EV Betting Tools.
In the WNBA this season, our assists bets are offering some of the best value in the market. Right now Jonquel Jones under 4.5 assists is coming in with a strong OS Rating of 6 and 4.2% expected value. That’s because the true odds — the way we demonstrate the breakeven point of bet profitability — are -173, yet BetMGM has their odds down at -155.
As long as a sportsbook’s odds are shorter than the true odds, the bet is +EV. BetMGM, FanDuel and BetRivers are the top +EV books since every other operator is -175 or worse.
This year our WNBA assist bets with OS Ratings of at least 6 are winning 57.4% of the time, and that’s leading to 16.0% positive return on investment (ROI)! At BetMGM, in a smaller sample, the ROI jumps up to 25.3%; if you tailed all these BetMGM bets (27 total), you would be up $1,330 this season.
See how our bets are performing from an EV standpoint on our EV Results page. Keep in mind, however, that EV results focus on long-term profitability rather than individual wins and losses. It’s important to maintain a big-picture perspective — don’t get too excited about the hits or too discouraged by the misses.
