For many the unofficial start of the golf season occurs as the NFL season winds down, so with the Super Bowl in the books, it’s time to shift our focus to the links. We still have a few months until major season, but the PGA Tour has some signature events on the horizon, including this week’s Genesis Invitational. There are some unique situations this week from venue to format, but one thing is for sure: There are opportunities for a score in the outright betting market. With that in mind, here we will go over some PGA best bets for the 2025 Genesis Invitational.
Since this is a signature event, there are 72 golfers vying to make the top 50 (plus ties) to find the weekend. Another wrinkle is the “10 shots off the lead” rule in effect, giving even more guys a chance at 72 holes. For outrights, we aren’t overly concerned about this as hovering around the cutline doesn’t exactly put them in the position heading into the weekend. The other major storyline is the layout, which has moved to Torrey Pines South instead of the normal host, Riviera. Torrey South is a beast; players will be tackling a 7,700-yard layout that will test all the tools in the bag. Fortunately, golfers just saw this course for the Farmers, and that can help us target some outrights.
Genesis Invitational Odds, Picks & PGA Best Bets
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Genesis Invitational PGA Best Bet: Hideki Matsuyama
Any field with Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler has immense risk in terms of targeting anyone else to win the tournament. We know the firepower those two bring, but on the other hand, if they don’t win, we get very reasonable numbers on the rest of the field. Matsuyama, for example, at 22-1 kicked off 2025 in style with the win at the Sentry, and since then it’s been a run of decent yet uneventful form. That can change this week pending he can get a little spike in the putter.
One thing we know for sure is Matsuyama can deal with Torrey South. Not only does he have a ton of experience from the Farmers Insurance Open, but his long iron game is always an asset. Poa greens can challenge everyone, but given Matsuyama is coming in with a cold putter, I actually like the greens being a bit of a wild card. I’m willing to start my bets this week with Matsuyama.
Genesis Invitational Best Bet: Hideki Matsuyama (22-1 at FanDuel)
Genesis Invitational PGA Best Bet: Taylor Pendrith
If you know me at all, then this isn’t a surprise as Pendrith is one of my favorite golfers to target in the betting market. That can be an expensive sentence since Pendrith gets close more often than he hoists trophies, even though that can and will change. In 2025 he already has two top-10s, including at the Farmers, all while losing strokes putting in every event. That might not change here, but if it does, watch out because the rest of his game is in form.
Pendrith is a reasonable 40-1, which again speaks to the strength of the field. Off-tee stats show how well he is driving the ball, which is another key piece to the puzzle for this layout. Not only will I be targeting Pendrith in PGA DFS, but I absolutely want him on the outright card with the chance his putter and ball striking sync up.
Genesis Invitational Best Bet: Taylor Pendrith (40-1 at FanDuel)
Genesis Invitational PGA Best Bet: Min Woo Lee
Lee honestly isn’t a name I usually choose. He is an interesting breakdown as he has the talent and has proven he can compete amongst the best fields on tour. Last week he was 12th at the WM Phoenix Open, highlighted by surgical driving and an insane number of strokes gained around the green. That mostly is unsustainable, but at the same time the irons have plenty of room for improvement. I like him at 60-1 for an outright, but I don’t love the idea of having him in more stable markets like head-to-heads or top-20s given the erratic nature of his game.
Unlike a lot of this field, Lee doesn’t have immense experience at Torrey South, but course fit is more important. He has all the shots, and again some of his best results on tour have come at majors or The Players, which resembles a signature-event field. If he can get hot on poa (which has happened before), this could be a dark horse contender to break through.
Genesis Invitational Best Bet: Min Woo Lee (60-1 at FanDuel)
One thing worth mentioning: Keep an eye on the weather this week as we get closer to lock. Tee time stacks and other edges may open up. If you are looking for additional PGA content or more expert picks across all the sports, come join us on the Tails Marketplace. Use the code GENESIS at checkout and you will get a full week of Jazzraz’s TAILS Discord for $1.
