The PGA Tour packs its bags and heads north for the RBC Canadian Open. Hamilton Golf Club in Ontario is the destination for many of the tour’s best, who are hoping to grab some form before another major. We haven’t seen this layout since 2019 when Rory McIlroy grabbed the trophy, and he leads off the field this week once again. From a betting perspective, he takes on the Scottie Scheffler role as the guy to beat, but the board is full of potential options. Here’s what we need to know about the course and, more importantly, who is worth an outright bet as part of our Canadian Open PGA best bets.
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PGA RBC Canadian Open Odds, Picks & Betting Predictions for 2024
PGA RBC Canadian Open Odds & Tournament Preview
| Golfer | Odds |
|---|---|
| Rory McIlroy | +360 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +1600 |
| Sahith Theegala | +1800 |
| Shane Lowry | +2200 |
| Alex Noren | +2200 |
| Corey Conners | +2200 |
| Sam Burns | +2500 |
| Cam Young | +2500 |
| Maverick McNealy | +3300 |
| Adam Scott | +3300 |
Hamilton Golf Club is far from the longest course on tour, with it measuring just over 7,000 yards. The par 70 emphasizes accuracy off the tee and making sure golfers have distance controlled with the mid- and short-range irons. Obviously, weather always is a wild card in terms of difficulty, but this should be a fair test of golf that doesn’t turn into a complete birdie fest.
In terms of skillset, I want the standard profile of crisp ball striking and ideally a good bentgrass putter. Overall, it’s a course that allows any style to thrive as distance isn’t a barrier to entry at all.
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PGA Outright Pick #1: Alex Noren
Yes, I did consider betting Tommy Fleetwood, who sets up well, but he isn’t on the card just yet at 16-1. However, Alex Noren at 22-1 is another European searching for that elusive PGA Tour win. His game has been outstanding all year, with consistent quality results even without a win. Noren hasn’t missed a cut all year and hasn’t been outside the top 25 in an event since early February. That consistency proves where his game is, but now we need to find that ceiling performance.
A lot of Noren’s near wins came at tracks that profile similarly to this one. Most recent was a third-place finish at Byron Nelson where he gained across the board in all strokes gained categories. Coming off a 12th at the PGA Championship where he gained nearly six strokes on the approach, Noren’s form is very encouraging. If he continues to play this, well the win will come — and it could be this week.
PGA RBC Canadian Open Pick: Alex Noren (22-1, FanDuel)
PGA Outright Pick #2: Keith Mitchell
I have talked about Mitchell often at courses that ironically are more technical, as they suit his game more than one would imagine. He has distance and firepower off the tee, but he can still utilize that at tracks like this, which gives him a ton of short irons into these holes. Mitchell is automatic in gaining off the tee, and lately his irons also have been positive, with strokes gained on approach in 10 straight events. It’s a simple breakdown when looking at his game – he is consistently gaining tee to green and losing those strokes with the flatstick.
Mitchell’s putter has to flip to grab a win, but we’ve seen this story before in his career. In 2019 Mitchell won at a short layout at the Honda, and heading into that week he had lost strokes putting in five straight events. All it takes is a quick upswing with that club, and Mitchell has his game ready to go.
He’s made three of four cuts, but he sneakily fits a lot of what I am looking for this week. With his solid outright price of 35-1 to win, the hope we get the best version of Mitchell in this spot.
PGA RBC Canadian Open Pick: Keith Mitchell (35-1, FanDuel)
PGA Outright Pick #3: Adam Svensson
I am contractually obligated to back at least one Canadian at their signature event, so why not swing for the fences? I had Adam Svensson on the list of potential 2024 winners, and although the year hasn’t been stellar for him, there is still a lot of golf to be played. He is finding the weekend consistently, having made seven straight cuts, including the PGA Championship. The bigger issue has been the upside, as a ton of top-50 results do nothing for us in terms of outrights. Now, his putter flashed some form last week, and with it came a better 24th-place showing at Charles Schwab.
Svensson has a win on tour at the RSM Classic, and that layout isn’t too dissimilar to what he may see here. The par 70 that isn’t a bomber’s paradise is probably his best chance to thrive on tour. The thing I like about Svensson is he’s proven even his putter can get red hot at times, and the irons have been in top form for the last month or so. The odds have come down from triple digits, but 80-1 is a longshot number worth attacking.
PGA RBC Canadian Open Pick: Adam Svensson (80-1, BetMGM)
OddsShopper’s PGA Betting Tools & Tips
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