The PGA tour season rolls on with the next stop in San Diego for the Farmers Insurance Open. It’s only a few weeks into 2024, but it seems like the storylines keep coming with last week’s American Express producing another marquee headline. Amateur Nick Dunlap shocked the world and won the event, which just shows how much talent these fields have. Let’s dive into our top PGA bets and picks for the 2024 Farmers Insurance Open. If you’re looking to get some skin in the game on the PGA this week, check out a few of our market-based betting model’s top picks for free — or subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for all of our best bets, including every expert pick!
PGA Farmers Insurance Open Odds, Picks & Betting Predictions for 2024
PGA Farmers Insurance Open Odds & Tournament Preview
| Golfer | Odds |
|---|---|
| Xander Schauffele | +900 |
| Patrick Cantlay | +1100 |
| Collin Morikawa | +1100 |
| Max Homa | +1200 |
| Min Woo Lee | +2000 |
| Ludvig Aberg | +2000 |
| Tony Finau | +2200 |
| Sungjae Im | +2200 |
| Jason Day | +2500 |
| Sahith Theegala | +3000 |
This week’s Farmers Insurance Open will be no different — at least quality-wise — than last week’s tournament. Torrey Pines Golf Course’s North and South venues offer us a great test of golf.
Unlike the last few weeks, where birdies have dominated the scoring, we will see golfers get tested a little more on these layouts.
In the betting market, we have some big names to choose from, including favorites Xander Schauffele (9-1), Patrick Cantlay (11-1) and Collin Morikawa (11-1). Tony Finau (22-1) stands out further down the board
That said, this field could easily produce another dark horse winner, and I’ve got some action down on one such long-shot bet. Here are a few guys to keep an eye on as you build out your betting card.
PGA Outright Pick #1: Collin Morikawa (Farmers Insurance Open)
Despite it being a decent field, we still have four golfers priced inside 12-1 in the outright market. That’s never a great feeling with so much win equity up top and not the most eye-popping numbers to target. However, if you are going to the top of the board as I am by picking a favorite, it’s going to be Collin Morikawa at 12-1. We know Morikawa will bring the ball striking, and around Torrey Pines, that will translate. We saw exactly that last year with Morikawa’s third-place finish thanks to nearly seven strokes gained with the irons.
We didn’t get to see Morikawa tackle the American Express, but at the Sentry, he was up to his usual form. He tore up the course from tee to green. The South course will demand golfers to be at their best when it comes to ball-striking, and this is a layout in which Morikawa can thrive. Even at a number like 11-1, I have an interest in putting Morikawa on the card, and I expect him to be in the hunt come Sunday.
PGA Farmers Insurance Open Pick: Collin Morikawa 11-1 DraftKings
PGA Outright Pick #2: Tony Finau (Farmers Insurance Open)
I’ve resisted putting Tony Finau on the card the first few events, but here we are as Torrey Pines approaches. The form hasn’t moved the needle much if at all, but Finau made it to Sunday and landed 25th last week at the three-course rotation. I’m not overly concerned about how he played, but I do like that he got some reps even though those courses aren’t nearly the challenge this could present.
One thing we know for sure is that Finau will be familiar with these courses as he makes the Farmers an annual stop on his schedule. He finished runner-up in 2021 and has recorded numerous top-10s over the last decade.
It’s no stretch of the imagination to think it could finally connect here for Finau. One major benefit is Finau has consistently overachieved here with the putter relative to his typical strokes gained numbers, so the Torrey Pines greens will be a welcome sight.
At 25-1 on FanDuel, he is another target with some real pedigree. He knows what it takes to get it done at a challenging venue like the Farmers.
PGA Farmers Insurance Open Pick: Tony Finau 25-1 FanDuel
PGA Outright Pick #3: Adam Svensson (Farmers Insurance Open)
Compared to the winners the last few weeks, a player in the 110-1 range is barely qualifying as a long shot. Certainly, as the season goes on, we will see some shorter odds take down tournaments, but there is still some room for a long shot on the card. The guy who stuck out to me in this range: is Adam Svensson, a player I want to and plan to buy on a lot early in the season.
So far in 2024, it’s been a pair of top-40-type finishes for Svensson. Fortunately, the ball striking numbers have been positive, and I still believe in the upside if he connects with his putter. His past three trips to the Farmers didn’t produce much, but playing a venue always helps, and nothing is stopping him from stringing together some quality rounds.
Anytime you have a guy in the triple digits on the card, you know everything has to break your way, but given the past few weeks, I’m willing to take another long shot and hope we connect the dots.
PGA Farmers Insurance Open Pick: Adam Svensson 110-1 FanDuel
OddsShopper’s PGA Betting Tools & Tips
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