The PGA Tour rolls on and heads to TPC Deere Run for the John Deere Classic. Similar to last week in Detroit with the Rocket Mortgage, this is a full field mostly comprised of golfers looking to make a statement in a relatively weak event. That means plenty of birdies, potential drama and the chance for a first-time winner. On the betting side, this allows us to look at a lot of players who either have minimal experience on tour or not many wins in their career. Let’s dive into the John Deere Classic PGA best bets for this week.
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PGA John Deere Classic Odds, Picks & Betting Predictions for 2024
PGA John Deere Classic Odds & Tournament Preview
| Golfer | Odds |
|---|---|
| Sungjae Im | +1400 |
| Sepp Straka | +1600 |
| Denny McCarthy | +2000 |
| Aaron Rai | +2000 |
| Jordan Spieth | +2000 |
| Davis Thompson | +2500 |
| Maverick McNealy | +2800 |
| Keith Mitchell | +3000 |
| Jason Day | +3300 |
| J.T Poston | +3500 |
TPC Deere Run hosts this tournament every year, so there is plenty of data in terms of what skillsets we want. The first thing that stands out is that golfers need to make some birdies, as there are a ton of gettable holes on this par 71. They could take a few different paths, but the most common is simply getting the ball in the fairway and attacking with the irons. These fairways aren’t difficult, and most of the field will be in prime position to flag hunt with their second shot.
From there, rolling it on bentgrass never hurts, as golfers will lose pace to the field if they can’t knock down their fair share of putts. Overall, it’s an “attack mode” golf course that guys will tear apart, leading to a winning score that could exceed -20.
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PGA Outright Pick #1: Denny McCarthy
I am not going to be the only one who mentions Denny McCarthy this week, as he checks a ton of boxes. He is still searching for that elusive win, and he has been so close at so many different venues over the past few years. He has back-to-back sixth-place finishes at this event the last two years, and his game translates to exactly what you’d envision a successful golfer would look like. McCarthy’s form hasn’t been anything too exciting, with four straight made cuts but zero top-20 finishes. However, this is a major drop in field quality and a course that suits his game perfectly.
With that in mind, it’s no surprise to see McCarthy taking money in the betting market and the number continuing to drop. What was upwards of 30-1 is now down to the low 20s, but I am still willing to play him at 22-1. McCarthy has shown he is one of the best putters in the world, and that paired with some solid ball striking is going to be what takes down this tournament. I won’t be alone celebrating if he wins this week, but he has a great chance to get to Sunday in contention.
PGA John Deere Classic Pick: Denny McCarthy (+2200 at DraftKings)
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PGA Outright Pick #2: Eric Cole
Cole joins McCarthy on the list of guys with a bunch of top-5 finishes without a career-defining win on the PGA Tour. He has all the talent, has proven he can contend and now comes into the John Deere Classic with some momentum after a successful showing last week. Cole came out of no form to finish sixth at the Rocket Mortgage and gained strokes in all four categories. Maybe that was a one-off week and he will regress, but that type of showing again will have him firmly in the hunt.
Cole’s history on the PGA Tour shows he doesn’t mind needing to go super low to contend and can keep pace at courses with minimal defense. At times his putter has proven it can get crazy hot, which would be a huge step towards breaking through here. At the RSM Classic in 2023, Cole posted -22 en route to his third-place finish. At 55-1, he is worth backing as a guy whom everyone was rushing to back earlier in the season against much stronger fields than this.
PGA John Deere Classic Pick: Eric Cole (+5500 at FanDuel)
PGA Outright Pick #3: Ryo Hisatsune
Let’s make it 3-for-3 in targeting guys with zero career PGA Tour wins. This tournament is wide open, and that makes Ryo Hisatsune an interesting longshot at 66-1. He doesn’t have the experience that most have in this field, as he’s just 21 and in his first full season on tour. If 2024 has shown us anything, it’s that experience — although valuable — isn’t the end all with numerous young guns competing and winning this year. Hisatsune has all the talent, and he battled back last week to make the cut and finish 31st. That result doesn’t move the needle, but strokes gained on the approach in 4 of 5 paired with an occasionally hot putter certainly do. Like a lot of these up-and-coming golfers, he seems to be able to really attack these track where birdies are everywhere.
We didn’t really talk about the top of the board this week, but as you can imagine, it’s weak relative to a normal event. There is no Scottie Scheffler or Rory McIlroy lurking, and that opens up and distributes the win equity down the board. For that reason, I find myself looking towards these players in the hope one of them connects the dots and breaks through for their first PGA Tour win. Hisatsune could be that guy at 66-1.
PGA John Deere Classic Pick: Ryo Hisatsune (+6600 at BetMGM)
OddsShopper’s PGA Betting Tools & Tips
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