The fourth and final major of the PGA Tour season is rapidly approaching, but before we talk Open Championship, we have one more tournament to break down. The tour is going to Scotland, specifically the Renaissance Club, for the Genesis Scottish Open. This gives players a tune-up where they can test their skills on links golf and get a sense of the potential elements awaiting them. Most of the Open field is here to tackle this layout, and from a betting standpoint, this provides a loaded odds board. Finding a winner here is no easy task, but with a strong field, the prizes we get from quality golfers are intriguing. Let’s get into some Scottish Open PGA best bets for this week.
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Scottish Open Odds, PGA Picks & Betting Predictions for 2024
Scottish Open Odds & Tournament Preview
| Golfer | Odds |
|---|---|
| Rory McIlroy | +800 |
| Xander Schauffele | +900 |
| Collin Morikawa | +1600 |
| Ludvig Aberg | +1600 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +2000 |
| Viktor Hovland | +2200 |
| Tom Kim | +2500 |
| Min Woo Lee | +2800 |
| Matthew Fitzpatrick | +3500 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | +3500 |
Anytime the PGA Tour heads to Europe, we know that wind and weather could play a factor. That doesn’t change this week, so make sure to keep an eye on forecasts closer to tee times.
Players will be facing a par 70 that measures around 7,300 yards. The course isn’t overly demanding off the tee, but golfers still want to avoid the thick stuff and set themselves up for reasonable approaches.
Despite the course not being crazy long, expect plenty of medium- to long-range iron shots. With Scotland, bumping around the green and sand saves are crazy, especially if you think conditions get a little rough. One thing to note is that, despite the strong and full field, Scottie Scheffler is not in attendance, which changes the entire odds board given his talent.
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PGA Outright Pick #1: Tommy Fleetwood
Fleetwood and the outright board do not mix well together. He has to be at or near the top of most people’s lists of players who have been close without ever grabbing that PGA Tour win. For it to come in Scotland would be ironic, but we have to like the setup and situation. The 20-1 number is the bottom of the range, but to me it’s still one I can get behind despite the lack of win equity historically. Furthering the interest is no Scheffler and Rory McIlroy returning after the heartbreak at the US Open.
Fleetwood seems to like this course, with a fourth and sixth in his two appearances. It makes sense given that he, of course, knows links golf, has the irons to deal with the layout and won’t need to get into a -25 putting competition. His form has been all about consistency over upside, which is the opposite of what we need from an outright selection, but quality golf never hurts. Fleetwood can and will win on tour, and this course should give him another chance come Sunday.
Scottish Open Pick: Tommy Fleetwood (+2000 at FanDuel)
PGA Outright Pick #2: Justin Thomas
We don’t have to worry about consistency versus upside here, as Thomas’ year certainly can be classified as a roller coaster. In his last six events, he has a horrible missed cut at the US Open but also three top-10 finishes. Zooming out further, he had missed cuts at the Masters and Players. Last time out at the Travelers, Thomas gained strokes in all four categories, and he is a dangerous player when he gets going. The lack of consistency has worked for us when looking at the number, as 45-1 is generous.
Unlike Fleetwood, Thomas does not have any past success here, so he needs to find new form at the Renaissance Club. He only has a pair of appearances, so the 60th and missed cut aren’t actually concerning, and I like Thomas’ ability to play links golf. The results in Europe haven’t been up to his standards, but I’m willing to embrace the volatility here.
This one is not for the faint of heart, as the downside with Thomas has been him falling out of contention and being a complete swing and miss.
Still, at 45-1, Thomas gets on the card since his top-end game is good enough to win in fields and layouts like this one.
Scottish Open Pick: Justin Thomas (+4500 at FanDuel)
PGA Outright Pick #3: Wyndham Clark
Wyndham Clark is another volatile option, but unlike Thomas, he actually played well here the past few years and his skillset should continue to translate to this type of layout. It’s been an up-and-down year for Clark, with a win at Pebble Beach, a pair of runners-up at the Players and Arnold Palmer Invitational and then an ugly run of form in recent weeks. That speaks to the range of outcomes he has here, but the number offers a lot of potential value if Clark finds that previous form. He showed signs of life last time out at Travelers, as he gained 3.5 strokes with the irons en route to a ninth-place finish.
It may just be a blind spot with me, but Clark is one of the more difficult players to break down in terms of where his odds should be. Considering he has a US Open trophy, we know field strength isn’t an issue, and his unique skillset can translate to this style of golf. He absolutely can roll it, and typically his off-tee game puts him in a position to be successful. Clark did enough at Travelers to merit interest here, and if you do want to look ahead, 80-1 is sitting there for his Open Championship odds next week.
Scottish Open Pick: Wyndham Clark (+4500 at FanDuel)
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You can get the same odds of -120 at BetMGM and Hard Rock, and sharp book Pinnacle is just a hair below at -121. The true odds — how we calculate the breakeven point for betting value — at -128, which means anything longer than that is positive EV. That means you have five options for sportsbooks; but again, the best odds are at BetMGM.
There this prop is +EV by 2.8%, so long-term this is a bet that will be very profitable if you take advantage of them on a regular basis.
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OddsShopper’s PGA Betting Tools & Tips
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