One and Done pools are exploding in popularity, and the Sony Open is the first chance for people to get their One and Done pool started. Let’s dig into the field to identify who makes sense for our PGA One and Done selection at the 2024 Sony Open. If you’re looking to get some skin in the game on the PGA this week, check out a few of our market-based betting model’s top picks for free — or subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for all of our best bets, including every expert pick!
If you haven’t played One and Done before here’s a quick primer on the basic rules. It’s almost like an NFL survivor pool in that you must choose a single golfer every week, but once you pick them, they are ineligible for the rest of the season. The goal is to accumulate the most money during the year, so we are after tournament winners while hoping to avoid the missed cuts that net us $0 for the week.
Different fields and tournaments bring different prize pools, so you should try to plan ahead by saving some big names for the elite payday opportunities. This week’s Sony Open offers just north of an $8 million purse with the winner taking home around $1.5 million. With 7 figures up for grabs in One and Done, let’s dive into a few golfers worthy of consideration.
PGA Sony Open One and Done Picks for 2024
PGA Sony Open One and Done Picks Expert Analysis & Picks
Is JT Poston a Strong Contrarian Choice?
One of the other fascinating things about One and Done pools is wondering which golfers you ultimately will select during the year and which you won’t touch at all. A guy like JT Poston lands in that gray area — he might be useful in certain events, but it’s no guarantee you’ll need him at all. That’s a long winded way of saying the opportunity cost is next to nothing, but don’t be fooled, this guy absolutely can win on tour.
We’ve seen JT Poston hoist a few trophies so far, and his resume is littered with top 5’s, including last week at The Sentry. Again, the goal in One and Done is winning, but banking money with any finish is key — even a top-10 showing can be useful. Normally, when Poston is on his game, it’s the putter and short game giving him an advantage. That fits Sony, which is a pseudo-putting competition.
I love that Poston played last week, as that’s a proven bump early in the season, and I don’t think you’ll him later in the season.
Is it too Early for Matthew Fitzpatrick?
I just mentioned this issue, but it’s worth repeating: targeting the best golfers in a field is a big opportunity cost if you think they might excel at a more important event later in the season. That’s certainly possible with a guy like Matthew Fitzpatrick, who has a major on the resume and is a proven winner on tour. He is amongst the favorites in this field and it’s easy to see why when you look at his game and the field itself.
We saw Fitzpatrick last week finish 14th, and, honestly, his game seems to be in good shape. The biggest question mark is how will he like this course, as he doesn’t have course history for us to peak into here in hopes of drawing some conclusions.
What we do know is that some of these shorter technical layouts are where he has found major success before, and I believe The Sony could be amongst them if he starts playing here going forward. I’d say Fitzpatrick is the most conservative One and Done option on the board, and for smaller pools, this might be a spot to consider.
Ben Rasa’s PGA One and Done Pick: Corey Conners
Corey Conners played last week and finished an unremarkable 33rd, but, more important than the finish was the fact he played. Looking into the numbers, we see a big loss on the greens, which is an easy explanation for the lack of upside last week.
Fortunately for Conners, His game translates well to this course. Conners finished third here in 2019 and has four straight top 15’s at Waialae, which is exactly what we want to see in a potential One and Done selection. I feel confident that, at the very least, he’ll cash a check for us and bank some money in the first event of the year.
With it being the first week, we have every golfer available, so it’s up to you to decide how you’re weighing opportunity costs. Going with the favorite in the tournament or an elite name will give you the best chance to get a quick start, but you will miss those guys later in the season. Conners to me strikes a nice balance of risk and reward here at Sony.
I’ll be going with Corey Conners this week in One and Done because he offers that balance. I imagine he will be a popular name as a lot of people have the same mindset to start the season, but I also think Conners is poised to contend here. It’s an incredibly long season, so no need to panic even with a poor start in One and Done at the Sony, but I think Conners gets us off on the right foot and provides a nice return with a quality showing this week.
PGA One and Done Pick for the Sony Open: Corey Conners
OddsShopper’s PGA Betting Tools & Tips
Looking for more PGA predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down every tournament, so make sure to check out the rest of our PGA articles. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets.
