While the Tour opened last week with a short field at the Tournament of Champions, a who’s who in the PGA outside of Rory McIlroy, the quest for a true long shot begins this week. The good news is anyone who played last week doesn’t even need to change states, as Waialae Country Club plays host to the Sony. Unlike last week, distance off the tee isn’t nearly as important as accuracy. Course history also plays a significant role in factoring the best long shot candidates. The elements look mostly calm, but it wouldn’t be the first time a Sunday at the Sony would be impacted by strong, gusting winds. The field isn’t as top heavy as last week, which opens up some major betting opportunities deeper in the field.
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2023 Sony Open Long Shot Golf Bets
Nobody in any long shot position is doing well right now or comes into the season on a major heater. Maybe an unknown who blasted his way through the Korn Ferry Tour is in good form, but for the most part it will be clear why any golfer is 90-1 to win an event: He’s not great, or just not playing great, or maybe hurt — or possibly a healthy combination of all three.
It should come as little surprise that a golfer in Brendan Steele comes in fresh off missing the cut last year at Waialae. It was part of the colossal disappointment of a season where Steele’s third-best achievement was barely missing a cut. But he does have strong history here before that, especially coming off a nine-year gap. Steele missed the cut back in 2011 then returned in 2020 and 2021, finishing second and fourth, respectively.
Steele lost to Cam Smith in a playoff in which the winds picked up more than the previous three days combined, and he has survived a lot of what this course offers as challenges. He is also one of just 14 players in the current field with multiple top-15 finishes over the past five years. Sheer power off the tee will not be rewarded or forgiven like last week, but accuracy off the tee and from 200 yards and in become crucial. Steele can thrive here if he gets rolling early; he’s done it before with a similar game plan.
This guy certainly seems to fit the bill as a legit contender for this event despite imploding last year. His course history is pretty strong, so what is the problem? The answer is his putting. On one hand, the flat stick remains the game’s greatest equalizer; on the other, it’s exactly why Steele sits as a +9000 long shot on the big board. If, and only if, Steele can just not destroy his round with his putter, a season’s worth of bets will cash on this one ticket.
Best Long Shot Outright Winner: Brendan Steele (+9000, DraftKings)
It’s probably worth a mention to look at Webb Simpson as a mid-range long shot. He is currently at 60-1 at a course he knows awfully well, and he has had winning success here before. Waialae is perfect for Simpson, a shorter course demanding precision versus raw power and the ability to putt on Bermuda grass throughout the tournament. The main concern is his health. If, in fact, Simpson is still golfing hurt, then it’s going to be a long year with triple-digit odds at courses like this one. If he’s found some consistency in his health, then this number becomes valuable. Bettors can also build a smaller ladder and take him at top 20.
Long Shot Outright Winner Bet: Webb Simpson (+6000 DraftKings)
