The PGA Tour heads to the mainland for the first time in 2024 as the American Express is set to tee off. Another staple of the early season, this tournament features a rotation of three different courses and a cut after 54 holes instead of 36, which will make things a little more challenging for us from a handicapping perspective. Let’s get into the 2024 American Express betting odds as we make our PGA predictions and pick the best outright bets. If you’re looking to get some skin in the game on the PGA this week, check out a few of our market-based betting model’s top picks for free — or subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for all of our best bets, including every expert pick!
PGA The American Express Odds, Picks & Best Bets for 2024
PGA The American Express Odds & Tournament Preview
| Golfer | Odds |
|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | +550 |
| Patrick Cantlay | +1000 |
| Xander Schauffele | +1200 |
| Sungjae Im | +2000 |
| Justin Thomas | +2200 |
| Tom Kim | +2500 |
| Min Woo Lee | +3000 |
| Sam Burns | +3000 |
| J.T. Poston | +3000 |
| Eric Cole | +3000 |
The awkward format makes us have to dig a little deeper, but it also presents some unique opportunities in the betting market. We are burning the edges so far this year with last week’s Byeong Hun An suffering a playoff loss in a true heartbreaker. Still, we are getting chances, and that’s all you can ask for when betting on PGA outrights.
Scottie Scheffler leads the odds board at 11-2 on DraftKings, giving him a considerable advantage over the next-best golfers like Patrick Cantlay (10-1) and Xander Schauffele (12-1). After those three, it’s a big drop-off to Sungjae Im (20-1).
Further down the board, you’ll find some formerly big names priced at a bit of a premium for their current form, like Jason Day (35-1) and Rickie Fowler (60-1). In contrast, a few long shots like Taylor Montgomery (45-1) and Stephen Jaegar (65-1) stand out at similar odds. Grayson Murray (130-1), last week’s winner, clocks in as a huge underdog.
PGA Outright Pick #1: Sungjae Im
It isn’t hard to say that the trend can’t be broken, but looking at past winners from this event, and we see pretty much just guys who played at some point in the mini Hawaii swing. It makes sense, given the value of early-season reps, so ideally we want our players to have been at the Sentry or the Sony Open. Sungjae Im checks that box. He finished fifth in the opening event at the Sentry and brought his normal well-rounded game with him. Sungjae won’t wow you with one individual category, but he has no glaring weakness in his game, and he also has no issue going low.
As far as course history is concerned, Sungjae always plays this event, and he has no trouble finding the fourth round after Saturday’s cut. However, he hasn’t threatened to take down the trophy in the previous years, with his last five appearances all resulting in finishes between 10th and 20th. I still think the familiarity with these layouts is a plus, and with his game in form, he is absolutely live to win here. Add in that we get a reasonable price thanks to guys like Scottie Scheffler in the field and Im is on my outright card this week.
PGA American Express Pick: Sungjae Im 20-1 at DraftKings
PGA Outright Pick #2: Taylor Montgomery
I’m not sure what to make of Taylor Montgomery right now. I mentioned him last week as a potential sneaky target at the Sony. He cooperated by finishing 13th, but not in the way we’d expect. Montgomery is one of the best putters on tour, but it was his ball-striking that led the way last week. If that continues, Montgomery will take a big leap forward. Ball striking is usually the piece missing from his game.
Montgomery finished fifth here last year in his lone appearance. The result wasn’t surprising, given how many opportunities you get on the greens here. If this turns into a putting content, then there are few players, if any, that I’d rather have standing over putts than Montgomery.
Even with some of the big names in the field, the depth isn’t overly difficult, so there is no reason we can’t see him in contention come Sunday. At 50-1, this is a guy I will look to buy early in the year, which is when he seems to do some of his best work.
PGA American Express Pick: Taylor Montgomery 50-1 at FanDuel
PGA Outright Pick #3: Stephan Jaeger
If you’re looking for a long shot down the board, then take a few minutes to consider Stephan Jaeger, who I still believe has what it takes to win on tour. His game came around in 2023, and Jaeger became extremely reliable in finding the weekend. He brings an 18-event streak of made cuts to the AmEx. Of course, making the cut and winning are two different things, but Jaeger looked in form last week at the Sony, finishing a respectable 18th.
Like many players, the missing piece of the puzzle with Jaeger is usually the putter, which can go ice cold at times. However, we’ve often seen guys get hot on the greens for a short amount of time, and I am always willing to wager on someone who only needs an improvement on the greens.
The layout of these courses should provide Jaeger with the ability to go low, and that is the type of tournament in which I envision him thriving. He has played in this event previously and finally made Sunday in the 2023 version, finishing 36th. He can certainly eclipse that for his best showing at this event, and with a little positive regression on the greens, he can get to Sunday with a chance for his first PGA Tour victory.
PGA American Express Pick: Stephan Jaeger 70-1 at FanDuel
OddsShopper’s PGA Betting Tools & Tips
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