Tiger is back. To be fair, Tiger Woods isn’t back, he’s just back hosting his annual tournament at Riviera Country Club. The Genesis Invitational brings out the top names, has an elevated purse, and plays as tough as any major. It’s the place to be this weekend on tour no matter what Woods does on the course. Every week, different value pops up for us to exploit on the first-round leader markets based on course fit, history and just how hard it is to sustain great golf four days in a row. Let’s dive into the best first-round leader bets for the 2024 Genesis Invitational.
Tee times are also a great helper in determining who to bet, as golfers with earlier times normally — not always — get the better of conditions and tempo. Maybe it’s beating the wind, maybe it’s having fewer golfers in front to slow them down, or maybe it’s just a matter of comfort, but teeing off in the earlier portion can make a difference. The last thing to consider is that most of the first-round leader (FRL) bets are priced off overall win numbers, meaning there are value spots for quick starters who finish poorly.
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The Genesis Invitational First-Round Leader Bets
Keys to Being the First-Round Leader at the Genesis Invitational
This is a long course built with elevated bunkers and narrow fairways. The Poa annua greens adds an uncomfortable track for most to putt, and anything in the rough may add a stroke — just like Tiger wants it. With a shorter field of golfers yet huge names up top, the strategy is to build around a scrambler who can putt and avoid bogeys more than a golfer who can crush drives. Gaining strokes on approach shots and avoiding bogeys are the two biggest areas of success for anyone leading after one.
The scores may hover around even par, especially with any added wind, but that doesn’t mean there won’t be birdies or scoring chances. Getting out of this thick rough around the green and avoiding any lost stroke is going to be the difference. Most approach shots, nearly 75%, depending on the golfer, at Riviera are coming outside of 150 yards, so consistent ball striking, especially the ability to get on the green from the 175-yard range, makes all the difference.
First-Round Leader Bets for the Genesis Invitational
Ludvig Aberg: +2500 at BetMGM
We need a guy who is comfortable with this course, has a good history here and is sharp both off the tee and around the green. The last element is knowing how to putt on Poa. Ludvig Aberg’s overall price to win has already been steamed down, but there’s still great value in taking him at 25-1 on BetMGM. He can smash the ball while hitting for accuracy while and sacrificing little distance. He has even fixed a couple of smaller issues of late, helping him to continue his tear.
Aberg comes off a second-place finish at Pebble and a T9 at the Farmers the week prior. The biggest change is gaining strokes around the green, something that was leaking even at the Farmers. He finds himself in the earlier sector of tee times and should be comfortable despite not having the course history. The latter is why he’s not a great play to win, but everything else is why we take him to lead after one.
Best Genesis Invitational First-Round Leader Bet: Ludvig Aberg +2500 at BetMGM
Russell Henley: +5000 at BetMGM
Much like Aberg above, Russell Henley fits the key areas of success at Riviera — at least to lead after the first round. He missed the cut last year mainly because he failed to prevent losses on his approach shots. It’s not easy landing greens from 175 yards out, and, as a result, Henley paid the price.
The difference this year is that Henley comes into this week gaining strokes on approach shots in five straight events, finishing no worse than T14 in any of them. He is one of the earliest guys to tee on Thursday morning and is worth a sprinkle here at 50-1.
Best Genesis Invitational First-Round Leader Bet: Russell Henley +5000 at BetMGM
How to Bet on Tiger Woods at the Genesis Invitational
Don’t bet Woods to win anything. He took seven months off last time before hosting this event, and with a little more golf this time, his value is finishing in the top 10 or 20 in the first round. He has some of the best hands to ever play this game, knows the Poa greens, and, despite a bad finish last year, was one of the best at gaining strokes on approach shots.
Even at the Hero, where he finished near the bottom, Woods was in the top strokes gained off the tee. Bet him to finish near the top after the first round before he flames out later in the event. He’s sitting at +500 on BetMGM to finish in the T10 after the first round, which is the highest place he’ll see all week.
