The wait is over, and the golf world takes center stage this week with the Masters. The first major of the season is the most well known, and with so many storylines, we shouldn’t be short on drama. Eighty-nine players will descend upon Augusta looking for a career-defining win. It’s one of the best betting events of the year, not just because of the field but because of all the additional markets a tournament of this caliber offers. I focus on outrights here for our Masters PGA best bets, but I plan to attack a ton of different markets as Thursday approaches.
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The Masters Odds, Picks & Best Bets for 2024
The Masters Odds & Tournament Preview
| Golfer | Odds |
|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | +400 |
| Rory McIlroy | +1000 |
| Jon Rahm | +1100 |
| Xander Schauffele | +1400 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | +2000 |
| Brooks Koepka | +2200 |
| Jordan Spieth | +2200 |
| Joaquin Niemann | +2800 |
| Ludvig Aberg | +3300 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | +3500 |
Augusta National needs no introduction, as it’s a staple of the PGA Tour season. This is the only major that isn’t a rotation, so players have plenty of experience here depending on their age. The par 72 is like most, with par 5’s where golfers need to score but danger lurking around every corner. The greens are lightning fast, and the slopes create around-the-green shots you don’t see anywhere else.
One note is that course history does seem to be a stronger correlation here than at other venues, and that could be for a ton of different reasons given the stakes of the week. One other thing to monitor is weather, with storms brewing that could easily impact what type of skillset we want this week.
We have all the world’s best, as the LIV guys are back in the fold. Scottie Scheffler is still the man to beat, but Jon Rahm, Brooks Koepka and several other big names bring us back to when the tour was unified.
With a smaller field, we have top 50 and ties finding the weekend, but for outrights this really isn’t a big deal. We are looking to get ceiling performances and find someone in contention come Sunday. Here are a few names to target for Masters outright bets.
Masters Outright Pick No. 1: Rory McIlroy
Let’s get all the peripheral stuff out of the way, like McIlroy finishing third last week and having his best showing with the irons in nearly a full year. McIlroy has talent, but the Masters and he have had a volatile relationship the last half decade. Over his last six appearances here, he has three top-5’s including a runner-up, but also a pair of missed cuts. He was in perfect position to complete the career grand slam a few years back, but so far this green jacket has eluded him. Will the pressure continue to mount, or will McIlroy find a way to finally break through?
McIlroy is at a reasonable 10-1 at most books. Right now it’s Scheffler and then everyone else, but the odds reflect that and McIlroy is in an intriguing spot. He has dominated on the par 5’s but not enough on the rest of the course to finally get it done. It’ll be another fascinating week for McIlroy, but at 10-1 he is the guy up top to which I have the most exposure in the betting markets.
Masters Pick: Rory McIlroy (10-1, FanDuel)
Masters Outright Pick No. 2: Tony Finau
I promise you I am not just blindly backing Tony Finau in all things, even though at times it feels that way. Like all bets, shopping and finding a number that you perceive as inefficient is the name of the game, and Finau is interesting at 45-1. Most would agree Finau has the game to contend anywhere, including Augusta, but it’s just matter of whether or not he can string together 72 holes against the world’s best players.
One big positive is the course history, as Finau has never missed a cut here, with all six finishes inside the top 40. The best was a fifth in 2019, and he comes in off an impressive second-place finish a few weeks ago in Houston. Finau’s ball striking is there, and it comes down to how he handles these lightning-quick Augusta greens that have derailed him in the past. For 45-1, I am willing to pay to see if he can overcome that and get back in the mix.
Masters Pick: Tony Finau (45-1, FanDuel)
PGA Outright Pick No. 3: Shane Lowry
The more I dug into Shane Lowry, the more his outright number became appealing. Lowry has a major on his resume, doesn’t mind adverse conditions and is playing world-class golf. He seemed to struggle at Augusta early in his career, but he started to figure it out. His first four appearances were three missed cuts and a 39th, while his last four have been all inside the top 25, with a third-place finish in 2022.
Lowry’s current form is fantastic; over the last three events, he has three straight top-20 finishes, including fourth and third at the Cognizant Classic and the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Lowry gained over four strokes on approach in all three events, and that type of ball striking is going to translate anywhere. Like with Finau, Lowry’s putter probably will define the ceiling, but with almost a decade of experience around these greens, he can figure it out and threaten to win another major in the right conditions.
Masters Pick: Shane Lowry (60-1, DraftKings)
OddsShopper’s PGA Betting Tools & Tips
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