Earlier this week, Eytan Shander wrote up Rickie Fowler to win the 2023 US Open and his best pick of the tournament. Holding a lead on Friday, Shander examined the odds board to determine whether or not he should hedge his initial bet or not. The following is the original story from Saturday morning before Round 3.
A US Open Rickie Fowler bet story? Yes, that’s where we start our journey this weekend, as we decide if it’s time to hedge or not.
Halfway through the US Open at the Los Angeles Country Club sits Rickie Fowler atop the leaderboard. He’s 10 under for the tournament, but more importantly he stamped his return to Golf by tying the US Open record through the first 36 holes. Yes, that Rickie Fowler.
He’s the same guy who’s finished at least T20 in seven of his last eight events and blew through day one with an 8-under masterpiece. So the question begs, what exactly do we do with that 48-1 ticket that we gave you earlier this week, right here on OddsShopper? There are a couple of golfers worth looking at from a hedge standpoint, but it’s going to be hard to match what Fowler has already done – especially with conditions becoming more difficult across the next two days.
Here are some strong options to live bet if you are currently holding that 48-1 ticket, not to mention a verdict at the end!
US Open Rickie Fowler Bet Story: Options!
Top Live US OPEN Options
Most sites have Fowler less than a 4-1 live shot so anything on him is off the table. The idea is finding anyone who can make a push on Saturday, then ideally stick around to make a final push on Sunday. With so many big names in tight contention, that might be a littler easier than normal, especially since Fowler is ahead. Scottie Scheffler is currently at 7-1 on most sites, his pre-tournament odds. He’s sitting five off the lead and has been stellar at times, especially out of the rough or bunkers.
We know what happens if/when he turns on the putter, so taking him five strokes behind anyone with two days to go shouldn’t be a heavy deterrent. The rub here is betting enough to balance a loss in the event Fowler does win. Scheffler ended his first round with a bogey, then followed up the next day shooting 1-over on the first 9. He ended the day with three birdies and seems to be able to withstand some misses, and while being average on the green. Scheffler at +700 or better is certainly intriguing, especially since we didn’t lose anything after two rounds.
Dustin Johnson snowmanned his second hole and still battled his way back to even par. He currently sits four strokes off the lead and is going to need that big push discussed above, mainly today before things get too tight or difficult on Sunday. Moving Day can be just that for DJ as he finished his back nine with three birdies, avoiding bogeys, and overcoming one of the more brutal starts for any contender.
The majority consensus for Johnson is +1200. There needs to be a set of two circumstances coming together for him to ultimately win; he needs to gain at least three — if not four — strokes today, finishing at 10-under, AND Fowler & Xander Schauffle need to shoot no better than 1-under. That’s a big ask. There’s probably deeper confidence in the latter two battling the course to a number-hugging even par than Johnson destroying LACC today, but it’s worth a look for a two-time Major winner.
Shout out to our own Geoff Urlich for dropping Min Woo Lee on Twitter before he dropped a 65. Don’t expect this nearly-25-year-old to show any youth after firmly establishing a spot at 6-under, right next to Johnson. Lee finished T18 at the PGA Championship and certainly won’t be intimidated by the field. The only true intimidation on the final two days comes from wind and pin location, as Lee will have to make some putts.
It’s been a theme for him, gaining strokes on the green at the PGA and The Players – where he finished T6. There’s still plenty of meat on the bone here for Lee at 25-1, but like DJ, he needs to make that big push on Saturday, not tomorrow. If he continues to play the course smart and set up some scoring chances on the green, that very well could happen, cutting this +2500 number in half.
Final Verdict After Our US Open Rickie Fowler Bet Story: Let it Ride with Rickie
The three guys chasing Fowler are the best options in relation to where their odds currently reside. A 48-1 ticket is massive and there can easily be some small hedging on all three alternates, while still maintaining the majority of profits. It’s the proper thing to do to help ensure some profit, but it’s not foolproof by any means. Rory McIlroy and Schauffle are pretty damn good and either could walk away with this thing come Sunday evening.
Neither one of those guys make sense from a value standpoint, but ensure there’s no guarantee in betting anyone live. The play is simple – we ride Fowler until the end, certainly no cashing out. I’d put .25u on both DJ and Lee. As for Scheffler, you would already have him at +1000 if you followed me on the OddsShopper discord, so no reason to go back on that ticket for lesser value. Anyone who publicly took Fowler ahead of the US Open probably got something from heat to groans to overall disdain, all making victory taste even sweeter.
