The tour rolls on, from California to Arizona ahead of this year’s WM Phoenix Open Phoenix Open. There are 38 top-50 players in the field, and only once in the last decade has a golfer won with longer than 50-1 odds. It just has not happened, partly due to the overwhelmingly top-heavy field, the other part is the entire course and environment being a little different — especially for those newer to the event. Granted, much will be made about the grandstands on 16, but the crowd is a little louder and more involved than a typical event boasting so many top names. Let the rest of the public figure out how to squeeze any value from Rory McIlroy or Jon Rahm; the job is to find a longshot who can actually win.
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WM Phoenix Open Longshot Golf Bets
There are two things to highlight when selecting a true longshot in an event like this with a field so heavy. The first — again — is guys that are 150-1 have not been successful here no matter their recent course history, even though recent course history plays a role in selecting them. Basically, golfers have to be really good or truly hot to outlast a field this tough. The other thing is where a golfer can sacrifice in one area to gain an edge elsewhere. The obvious area where anyone can gain on the field would be putting, but they have to get to the green first. TPC Scottsdale is one of the longer courses with driving average, meaning shorter players are able to still find some distance off the tee. Driving distance, driving accuracy and stokes gained off the tee are less important here. What can separate a golfer at Scottsdale is his ability to scramble and save a par or score off longer putts. The two-inch rough acts more like a safeguard against multiple hazards than it does as any true hindrance.
It is important to find a golfer with respectable course history, a top scrambler who can gain strokes around the green and a decent-to-good enough putter that can get hot. Matt Kuchar is one of the 10 best golfers in the field when it comes to course history at TPC Scottsdale. He is one of only 15 golfers playing this week with multiple top-10 finishes over the last five years. He also missed the cut last year and sits as a monster 150-1 longshot. But Kuchar played well during swing season, with three straight top-30s despite losing strokes on the green in each event. His last two events saw him gain strokes putting, including a top-7 at the Sony Open.
Kuchar is 27th this year in stokes gained tee to green and is one of the best scramblers on tour this season. The field gets stronger each week, and it’s going to be tough keeping up with Max Homa or Colin Morikawa, let alone Rahm or Scottie Scheffler, but Kuchar has the tools and history to do it. He is a fantastic ladder candidate at top-40 and top-20. Just get that flat stick working and it’s going to be one glorious payday.
Best WM Phoenix Open Longshot Golf Bet: Matt Kuchar (+15000, DraftKings)
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Honorable Mention: Taylor Montgomery
Ben Rasa has hit the last two outrights on Putting for Dough, including a mid-range play in Justin Rose. Based on how strong the top of the field is ahead of this week, the 50- to 70-1 range is still a true longshot. Taylor Montgomery is the best putter on the planet, at least with a PGA Card. He has come on ridiculously strong this year and has yet to miss a cut. In fact, he finished outside of the top 20 in just 2 of 10 events played this year. Yet he is a 60-1 longer shot to win the WM Phoenix Open because he’s newer to the tour and has struggled in one key area that can hurt anyone in Phoenix: Stokes gained on approach. Approaching the green, scrambling and putting are going to be the difference for anyone with longer odds. Montgomery has the putting down and is one of the better scramblers, but he needs to settle down with his shorter iron and wedges to have a legit chance. He’s a fantastic ladder candidate at top-40/top-20/top-10.
