It may be Super Bowl week, but don’t think that’s the only drama that will be had in the desert as the PGA tour heads to Scottsdale for the Waste Management Open. This is one of the more defining courses and events on tour, with a truly unique atmosphere and a field filled some big-name players. If you’re looking to get some skin in the game on the PGA this week, check out a few of our market-based betting model’s top picks for free — or subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for all of our best bets, including every expert pick. I also recommend checking out my guide to golf betting if you’re planning to place some outrights of your own. Without further ado, let’s dive into the Waste Management (WM) Phoenix Open odds to provide some picks and predictions, including an outright pick for Justin Thomas.
Of course, the most notable feature of this is the 16th green, a stadium-seated venue that sounds more like a Super Bowl than a golf tournament. Beers will be flying, chants will be had, and plenty of storylines will be spun as we get closer to Sunday. From a betting perspective, this is a great tournament to attack, as we know the course and it’s a very open field to select. Let’s dive into what we need to know and a few guys on the radar.
WM Phoenix Open Odds, Picks & Betting Predictions for 2024
Waste Management Phoenix Open Odds & Tournament Preview
| Golfer | Odds |
|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | +450 |
| Justin Thomas | +1000 |
| Max Homa | +1600 |
| Sam Burns | +1800 |
| Jordan Spieth | +1800 |
| Byeong Hun An | +2500 |
| Min Woo Lee | +2800 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | +2800 |
| J.T Poston | +3000 |
| Wyndham Clark | +3000 |
The first positive this week is that we only have to talk about just one course, which is a rarity in early season PGA. We head to TPC Scottsdale as we do every year, and that means players deal with a par-71 course that measures out just north of 7,200 yards. This course has a little bit of everything, which is why I’m a fan, with water hazards, risk-reward par-4s and a ton of tricky setups that test your game. Despite that, it’s still a scoreable event with the winner usually flirting with around -20 when the dust settles.
In terms of skillset wanted like most weeks sign me up for a ball striker and I’ll worry about the putting later. I think that mindset is even more crucial at this event where you need to attack these flags and avoid the water hazards. The green complexes aren’t the most complicated and I won’t factor in much when trying to select some betting targets. It’s not to say we aren’t going to need a hot putting week to take this down, but I’ll roll the dice with guys who tackle par-4s, ball striking, and strokes gained on approach. Here are a few names that fit this profile and have numbers that have me interested in their outright price this week.
Waste Management Phoenix Open Pick #1: Justin Thomas
I normally don’t have a player this low in terms of the odds on the card, but I’m sticking with Justin Thomas this week. He was on the card last week at 25-1, and I’m not saying he would have hunted down Wyndham Clark, but he was in a position to do so heading into Sunday. So far in 2024, it’s been a ball-striking clinic for JT, which is exactly what we want around TPC Scottsdale. Add in that he has littered the first page of the leaderboard here in recent years, including a fourth-place finish last year, and he just has to be on the card.
Like all bets, it’s not just about the player but also the price we are getting, and 10-1 certainly is one of the shortest odds available. However, the field losing both Viktor Hovland and Xander Schauffele took a lot of win equity with it, and I see why Thomas is amongst the favorites. I’m comfortable having a position on him as he is primed to win and comes into this tournament checking almost every box I want.
WM Phoenix Open Pick: Justin Thomas +1000 DraftKings
Waste Management Phoenix Open Pick #2: Sungjae Im
Sungjae Im has been on the outright card a few times already in 2024, but I’m still willing to buy him this week. We get a reasonable 33-1 out there on FanDuel for a guy who I think fits TPC Scottsdale well and is another with a top-10 showing last year at this event. Of course, that doesn’t indicate he will play well here, but I do think having some experience at a unique venue is a nice plus.
More importantly than all that is the question of can and will Im improve his ball-striking and irons here in Scottsdale. If the answer is yes, this is an easy buy at 33-1, but if not, it could be a wasted outright shot as that’s the missing piece over the last few weeks.
Digging back into early 2023 I found that Im lost strokes on the approach at both the Sony Open and Amex before gaining seven the next week at the Farmers en route to a fourth-place finish. That illustrates how quickly he can flip the ball striking, and that’s what I am hopeful happens here. I will continue to buy Sungjae and love his game for this layout.
WM Phoenix Open Pick: Sungjae Im +3300 FanDuel
Waste Management Phoenix Open Pick #3: Erik Van Rooyen
Now we are getting into the fun part of the card, with Erik Van Rooyen and his triple-digit odds to win this thing. Normally, it’s hard to justify targeting guys this far down the board, but looking at the winners of events in 2024 so far, it’s been a string of 100-1+ targets. Now, I certainly think the best players in the world will win their fair share, but a guy like Van Rooyen is an interesting dart throw as a longshot for your betting card.
EVR finally paid off the believers in November 2023 with a win at the WWT Championship. For many of us, we knew the talent was there, and seeing him win over here proved that he can still contend not just in Europe but on the PGA tour. Stepping into WMPO is a bigger challenge than that field, but his solid form has continued to start 2024. Van Rooyen has made every cut and is coming off a respectable 20th-place finish last week. He has played this event a few times with nothing notable, but at least it’s not a new venue for him.
Stats-wise, Van Rooyen’s OTT game gives him a different path to success as we have seen bombers challenge and attack some of these risk-reward holes. Sure, this could lead to an early exit, but if the dots connect, this is the type of guy who can find himself in the mix come Sunday. At 110-1 on FanDuel this is a long shot that I’m willing to gamble on in the hope we get the best version of the South African this week.
WM Phoenix Open Pick: Erik Van Rooyen 110-1 FanDuel
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