Updated Saturday, September 5, 2026, after settlement. Kalshi prices, volume and minute-by-minute trade history come from Kalshi's public market data, pulled shortly after 7 p.m. ET; the fight result and round summaries come from the official scorecards as reported by MMA Junkie and Cageside Press. The pre-fight sportsbook lines quoted below are the ones this page carried Saturday morning. Every Kalshi contract on this fight is finalized, so nothing here is a live quote. Round boundaries below are reconstructed from the price history against the 15-second takedown; treat them as give-or-take 20 seconds.
The Quick Answer
Michael "Venom" Page beat Nursulton Ruziboev by unanimous decision, 29-28 on all three cards, on the UFC Paris main card at Accor Arena on Saturday, September 5, and Kalshi settled his contract at $1 from a 65-cent ask at the walkout. Page by decision paid $1 on a 42-cent ask, "goes the distance" paid $1 on 53 cents, and the knockout contract that someone bought 24,900 of at 26 cents on Friday night expired at zero. The number that makes this fight worth grading is the one in the middle: after Ruziboev's takedown 15 seconds in, the exchange traded Ruziboev as high as 67 cents inside the first two minutes and Page as low as 41 two minutes after that, and Page by decision printed at 9 cents, all inside the first round of a fight the favorite won on every card. The full board, the minute the market flipped, and what the sportsbooks would have paid for the same position are below.
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A Takedown In 15 Seconds, Then Three Rounds Nobody Wanted To Watch
The fight went the way the two stat lines said it would, minus the finish either man was supposed to bring. Ruziboev, the 6-foot-5 Uzbek with 21 submission wins on his record, put Page on the mat 15 seconds after the opening bell and spent most of round one on top of him, landing elbows while Page fished for a buggy choke that went nowhere. Page got back to his feet with a little over a minute left in the round and landed a few strikes before the horn, but the round belonged to the man on top. The 29-28 cards mean each judge gave Ruziboev exactly one round, and the one he spent on top of Page from 15 seconds in is the obvious candidate.
Rounds two and three were Page's, in the way Page rounds usually are. He jabbed, threw a side kick to the knee that visibly wobbled Ruziboev in the second, got dumped once more when Ruziboev caught a kick, but Page wall-walked straight back up, and he landed the shot the MMA Junkie recap called his best of the fight, a big right, early in the third. Ruziboev got him down again in round three and held him for a while, drew a referee warning for a low knee, and hunted one more takedown as the crowd booed the final minute out. No knockdown, no submission attempt that got close, no round anyone would call a 10-8. It was the sixth straight UFC fight Page has taken to the scorecards, and Ruziboev's second UFC loss on the scorecards, after the unanimous decision to Joaquin Buckley at welterweight in May 2024.
Page moves to 26-3 in MMA (5-1 in the UFC) and, according to both the Yahoo and Cageside Press recaps, finished the last fight on his current UFC contract. Ruziboev drops to 37-10-2, with 8 of his 10 losses by decision. If you are new to how a Kalshi contract settles and why the winner's side pays exactly $1, what a Kalshi price actually means covers the mechanics in five minutes, and the rest of this page assumes it.
New to OddsShopper? We line up every major sportsbook's price on a fight like this one, so the comparison this article does by hand happens for you on one screen. Try OS Pro free for 7 days, and code VENOM20 takes 20% off your first month if you stay.
The Winner Board, Graded
Kalshi listed the fight under the event ticker KXUFCFIGHT-26SEP05PAGRUZ, one yes/no contract per fighter, each paying $1 to the winner's side and nothing to the other. The board opened on August 30 and closed at 5:14 p.m. ET Saturday, with settlement six minutes later.
| Contract | Ask At The Walkout | In-Fight Low / High | Settled At | $100 At The Walkout Ask Returned* |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Page | 65¢ | 41¢ / 99¢ | $1.00 | ~$150 |
| Nursulton Ruziboev | 36¢ | 1¢ / 67¢ | $0 | $0 |
*After Kalshi's taker fee of roughly 0.07 times the price times one minus the price, about 1.6 cents a contract on either side of this fight.
Read the Page row first, because it is the whole argument for grading a market instead of just checking whether the favorite won. He did win, the 65-cent price was right, and a $100 buyer at the walkout collected about $150. But for three minutes in the middle of round one that same contract traded as low as 41 cents, which means the exchange was pricing the man who won every card in two of the three rounds as the underdog. The question this page asked Saturday morning was whether Ruziboev could get the fight to the floor. He did, in 15 seconds, and the market repriced the entire fight on that one fact before Page had thrown a punch.
The volume says how much money was in it. The two winner contracts traded about 2.9 million contracts over their lifetime, about 2.7 million of that in the final 24 hours, and roughly 1.76 million of it between the first bell and the close. On Saturday morning this page called the Ruziboev side "the deep one," at 155,000 lifetime contracts to Page's 118,000. By settlement it was 1.77 million to 1.15 million.
The Minute The Market Flipped
Kalshi's minute-by-minute candles put a clock on the fight, and the clock is the story. Every minute below is labeled by the time it ended, Eastern.
Through 4:49 p.m. ET the board was exactly where it had been all day: Page 64 bid, 65 ask; Ruziboev 35 bid, 36 ask. The minute ending 4:51 is the takedown, and the price history puts a second on it. At 4:50:39 p.m., 233,822 Ruziboev contracts were bought at 36 cents, the pre-fight ask, inside that one second: two prints of 50,000, one of 48,348, two of 25,000 and one of 23,469, plus change. Someone, or several someones, were on the button within seconds of the takedown. Over the full minute 301,643 Ruziboev contracts changed hands, about one contract in six of everything it ever traded, at an average price of 36.5 cents and a high of 49, and across the takedown minute and the one after it takers bought 423,322 Ruziboev contracts and sold 9,803. Page's contract printed as low as 52 in the same minute and closed it at 59.
The next three minutes are where the price got it wrong. In the minute ending 4:52, with Ruziboev on top and landing elbows, his contract traded as high as 67 cents and Page's as low as 47. By the minute ending 4:53 Page closed at 42 cents, and in the minute ending 4:54 he printed his low of the fight, 41 cents, against a Ruziboev close of 52. The bottom was thin, and it should be read that way: everything at 42 cents or less added up to 2,408 contracts across 76 prints, the 41s sold in lots of two to 191 contracts in an eleven-second stretch at 4:53, and about 29,542 contracts changed hands at 45 cents or less before the round ended. The size sat a level up. The largest single sale of Page in the whole fight, 15,052 contracts at 55 cents, hit the price history at 4:50:49 p.m., inside the takedown minute, and the 4:53:43 second alone cleared 8,462 contracts at 43. Freeze the clock at the 4:53 closes, Page 42 and Ruziboev 57, and the exchange was pricing a 58-42 fight the other way. The decision contract on Page, 42 cents at the walkout, traded down to 9 cents in the minute ending 4:55. Round one was not over.
Then Page stood up. The candle ending 4:56 is the first one where his contract closes above 55 again, the 4:58 candle closes at 65, the walkout price, and the minute ending 4:59, right after the knockout contract spiked to 49 cents, the move that best fits the recap's side kick to Ruziboev's knee, is the biggest Page minute of round two: 57,321 contracts, a high of 81 and a close of 77. Ruziboev's contract went from 36 to 23 in that minute. The round-two rally carried Page to a close of 79 at 5 p.m., and he held the mid-to-high 70s into round three.
Round three produced one more reversal. In the minute ending 5:04, Ruziboev's round-three takedown, his third of the fight, Page's contract printed 42 cents again and Ruziboev traded up to 59, on 59,414 Page contracts in one minute. The biggest single buy of the fight landed in that same minute: 17,500 Page contracts at 65 cents at 5:03:49 p.m., as the price was on its way from 75 to 42. It lasted a minute; the 5:05 candle closed Page at 81, and the buyer at 65 was ahead again before the round was over. From there the price walked to the decision, 89 at 5:07, 92 at 5:08, and 99 in the minute ending 5:10, the biggest Page minute of the fight at 96,049 contracts, which is where the scorecards were read. Even there, someone paid: 17,957 contracts were bought at 99 cents in the single second of 5:09:38, a penny of profit per contract before fees, for the certainty. Ruziboev's last trade was a penny.
The thing I keep coming back to is that both dips into the low 40s were takedowns and neither was a submission attempt. Ruziboev's ground game produced elbows and control time, and the market priced each takedown as though the 21 submissions on his record were about to become 22. They never got close. The buyers at 41 and 42 who read the fight that way, that Page on his back is still Page, collected $1 on a 41-cent contract inside the hour.
The Finish Board, Graded
The method contracts are where this page said the fight's real argument was priced, and they are where the result made or lost the most money per contract.
| Contract | Ask At The Walkout | In-Fight High | Settled At | Lifetime Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Page By Decision | 42¢ | 99¢ | $1.00 | ~119,600 |
| Page By KO/TKO/DQ | 23¢ | 49¢ | $0 | ~165,300 |
| Page By Submission | 2¢ | 26¢ | $0 | ~51,100 |
| Ruziboev By Submission | 16¢ | 42¢ | $0 | ~134,300 |
| Ruziboev By Decision | 16¢ | 65¢ | $0 | ~83,500 |
| Ruziboev By KO/TKO/DQ | 9¢ | 17¢ | $0 | ~71,800 |
| Draw Or No Contest | 2¢ (5 a.m. quote; no closer print pulled) | not pulled | $0 | ~16,200 |
| Fight Goes The Distance | 53¢ | 99¢ | $1.00 | ~315,800 |
The top row is the trade this page was built around Saturday morning. Page's three method asks then totaled about 67 cents with 41 of it on the decision, which meant the board was putting three of every five Page wins on the scorecards, the read a handicapper gives a points striker who wins rounds and does not dominate. That contract was 42 cents at the walkout. It paid $1. Same read as the 65-cent winner contract, same fighter, and $100 at 42 cents plus fee bought about 229 contracts and returned about $229, against about $150 for the winner contract. The print at 9 cents in round one was 11 times the money, before fees, for anyone who took it.
Now the row that cost the most. The Page by knockout contract carried about 39,700 contracts of lifetime volume at 5 a.m. Saturday, and about 29,500 of that, roughly three-quarters, came from one minute on Friday night when someone bought about 24,900 at 26 cents. By settlement its lifetime volume was 165,300, the most traded of the seven method-of-victory contracts, and its open interest at the close was about 146,200, so most of that position was still open when it settled at zero. The Friday buyer's 24,900 contracts at 26 cents cost about $6,474 and paid nothing. The contract's one moment came in the minute ending 4:58, when it traded up to 49 cents, the print that best fits the round-two side kick, the minute before Page's own contract hit 81; the next minute closed the knockout contract at 28.
The Ruziboev rows read like his fight. Submission, his most expensive path at 16 cents, traded to 42 within three minutes of the first takedown and was at a dime by the first minute of round two, once it was clear the top position was producing elbows and not a choke. The surprise is the decision contract: Ruziboev by decision hit 65 cents in the minute ending 5:05, during his round-three takedown, with round one already in the bank for him. A buyer at 65 cents was pricing Page's third round as lost. Page stood up, landed, and the contract went from 65 to a penny in about three minutes. The distance contract went the other way from everyone: 53 cents at the walkout, a low of 16 in the minute ending 4:53 when the submission looked closest, 99 at the horn and $1 at settlement.
What The Sportsbooks Paid For The Same Position
The pre-fight book comparison this page ran Saturday morning holds up as a grade, because the sportsbook lines and the exchange agreed on Page before the walkouts. At 5 a.m. ET the OddsShopper live board carried Page at 20 sportsbooks, from -180 at the softest book, Bet99ON, to -227 at the harshest, Ladbrokes, with DraftKings at -198, FanDuel at -198, Caesars at -195 and Pinnacle at -191. Strip the vig from each pair and the books put Page between 61.9% and 65.6%, with Pinnacle at 63.8% and DraftKings at 63.7%, and Kalshi's 64-to-65 quote sat inside the band, about a cent above the sharp anchors. The full method is in our de-vig walkthrough for Kalshi.
A Worked Example: The Favorite's $100, Venue By Venue
The finding first: the exchange lost the moneyline comparison by a few dollars and won the fight on a contract the moneyline cannot express. The table is the receipt for the first half, the same $100 on Page at the walkout ask on Kalshi and at the Saturday-morning lines at the books:
| Venue | Price | $100 Returned | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi, 65¢ Ask Plus ~1.6¢ Fee | ~66.6¢ effective | ~$150 | ~$50 |
| DraftKings | -198 | ~$150.51 | ~$50.51 |
| Pinnacle | -191 | ~$152.36 | ~$52.36 |
| Best Book On The Board | -180 | ~$155.56 | ~$55.56 |
Kalshi's 65-cent ask sat about a cent above Pinnacle's 63.8% de-vig, a near-tie, and the 1.6-cent taker fee is what turned it into a 50-cent loss against DraftKings and a five-dollar loss against the best book, with the caveat that the book prices are 5 a.m. quotes and the exchange price is the walkout. The second half is the one that matters, because the fee-versus-vig math flips the moment the position is one a moneyline cannot express. The reason to have been on the exchange was never the winner contract, it was the 42-cent decision contract, a position the moneyline cannot express, and that is the one that paid $229. Our live UFC odds screen puts every book's price on the next card side by side so you shop the number instead of taking the first one, and the structural reason the exchange and the books converge on some fights and split on others is in Kalshi fees vs sportsbook vig.
What The Morning Read Got Right, And The Number That Still Bothers Me
Saturday morning this page made three arguments. First, that Page's price was a statement about his defense, a man who absorbs 1.51 significant strikes a minute and has never been stopped in the UFC. He was not stopped; he was not hurt; the only strike that visibly hurt anyone was the side kick he landed. Second, that Ruziboev's path was repeated entries against a 70% takedown-defense rate until one landed late. Three of them landed, one 15 seconds in, the kick-catch dump in round two, and one more in round three, and Page got up from all three. The rule the sharp MMA handicappers use, "can he get it there?", turned out to be the wrong question by half: he could get it there, he just could not do anything with it that a judge scores above a 10-9. Third, that the value was on the method board, not the moneyline. Page by decision at 42 cents was the same read as Page at 65 with $79 more profit per $100.
The number that still bothers me is 41. A contract that settles at $1 traded at 41 cents with the winner on his back and no submission in sight, and 233,822 contracts were bought on the other side in the single second the takedown landed. Whether that was one account sweeping the book or a crowd hitting the same button at once, the price history cannot say; what it can say is that in the two minutes after the takedown, takers bought 423,322 Ruziboev contracts and sold 9,803, a fight repriced on its first 15 seconds. The 5-1 UFC fighter who has gone to the scorecards in all six of his UFC bouts was the underdog for three minutes because he was underneath a grappler whose five UFC wins came against unranked opponents. If you want the one lesson from this tape, it is the one our live-betting handicappers preach: the moment the fight tilts is the moment the price overshoots, and the overshoot is the trade. Watching how they read those momentum shifts in real time costs nothing on our free expert picks today hub.
Two housekeeping notes for anyone holding the paper. Kalshi's winner contracts settle at 50 cents on a draw or no contest, which did not apply here, and the exchange's rules for these markets state it is not affiliated with or endorsed by the UFC. Kalshi operates under CFTC regulation as event contracts, is open to traders 18 and over, and its state availability differs from the sportsbooks' and changes often (our last verified list dates to July 2026), so check Kalshi's own eligibility page before assuming your state is live.
The main event graded the other way. Two fights after this one, the Hooker vs Parnasse main event ended in the first round, a body kick and punches at 2:35, for the French fighter. The daily version of this exercise, across every liquid Kalshi board, runs each morning on the Kalshi picks today hub, and the Makhachev vs Garry market is the closest comparison for how a UFC winner contract behaves when the favorite is never in trouble.
The Bottom Line On Page Vs Ruziboev Kalshi Odds
Zoom back out. The 65-cent favorite won, the sharp books and the exchange had him priced within a cent of each other, and every contract that said "Page, on the cards" paid: the winner at 65, the decision at 42, the distance at 53. Every contract that said anyone finishes anyone paid zero, including the 24,900-lot knockout position from Friday night. And for three minutes of round one, starting with 233,822 contracts bought in a single second, the market had all of that backwards. The fight was as dull as the crowd said it was. The price history was not.
Price-shopping is the entire edge on a fight where the venues agree, and doing it by hand across 20 books and an exchange is the slow way. OddsShopper does the comparison automatically and flags the prices in your favor before the next card's walkouts. The 7-day OS Pro trial is free, and code VENOM20 is good for 20% off your first month after it.
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