We’re on to Matchday 21 in the MLS. I didn’t have time to cover Matchday 20, but our Matchday 19 picks went an acceptable 1-1 — we hit on Nashville at -140 but missed San Jose at +130. We’re still in the black after out big win on Columbus at +175 for Matchday 18. Let’s dive into today’s best MLS bets for Matchday 21.
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Best MLS Bets, Picks & Predictions for Matchday 21: Seattle Sounders Remain Underrated Today
Seattle Sounders-Orlando City Odds
MLS Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Seattle: -115 | Draw: +255 | Orlando: +310
We’re sticking to just one MLS bet this week because my model doesn’t see a ton of value on the card, so why force it? The Seattle Sounders remain underrated relative to their actual on-field production, so let’s take advantage. They slot in odds of -115 (53.5%) at DraftKings Sportsbook at the moment, which is far too long for a team this good.
My expected goals model has Seattle winning this one 60% of the time, giving us plenty of edge relative to the market. Even FiveThirtyEight’s model has the Sounders winning 52% of the time, which, while not presenting us with an edge relative to the market price, still speaks to how underrated the Sounders are getting in this spot.
More than just my model points to value here. Orlando City has been scoring at an unsustainably high clip on the road. The club is averaging 1.75 goals per road match while averaging only 1.29 expected goals. On the flip side, the Sounders are averaging 1.3 goals per home match but 1.66 expected goals. Regression favors Seattle by a substantial margin, so let’s lock this one in at DraftKings at the current price.
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Today’s MLS Bet: Seattle -115 at DraftKings
