With the English Premier League and Bundesliga seasons over — and La Liga not far behind — soccer bettors will increasingly have to rely on the MLS for action. Fortunately, I’m here to help you handicap this summer’s MLS games. Let’s dive into the MLS betting odds to find the best picks and bets for today’s slate.
Readers looking for all the best MLS bets, picks and predictions throughout the season should check out OddsShopper’s articles. Our standard tools do not currently support MLS, but you can subscribe to Insider Access to check out my MLS betting model.
Best MLS Bets, Picks & Predictions Today: Trust the Home Favorites
Seattle Sounders-San Jose Earthquakes Odds
MLS Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Seattle: -125 | Draw: +270 | San Jose: +320
The Seattle Sounders have dealt with more than their fair sure of injuries this season, but some value remains on taking them to beat the San Jose Earthquakes today outright. The Sounders will have Raul Ruidiaz and Kelyn Rowe available, with Christian Roldan close to returning, but won’t have Jordan Morris or Cody Baker.
Morris leads the team in expected goals (7.3), but that’s largely a function of volume — Ruidiaz, who has played only 248 minutes this year, is outpacing him in expected goals per 90 minutes, 0.69 to 0.56. Morris’ absence has swung the odds a bit too far in San Jose’s favor, especially with Ruidiaz back in the mix.
San Jose is also somewhat pressed for depth at the moment. Defender Jonathan Mensah, who the team traded for back in February, failed to play on Saturday and could miss tonight’s action. Mensah has played the fifth-most minutes for San Jose. Reserve midfielder Judson is also suspended.
Seattle has an edge both in expected goals, 1.66 to 1.47, and expected goals allowed, 1.02 to 1.36. Goalie Stefan Frei owns a save percentage of 75.9% and has the highest clean sheet percentage at 53.3%. Opposing teams have scored just four goals on Frei in Seattle all season.
Today’s MLS Bet: Seattle Sounders -125 at DraftKings
DC United-CF Montreal Odds
MLS Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook
DC: -145 | Draw: +275 | Montreal: +380
We’re getting exposure to another home favorite today in this game. DC United has drawn enough sharp action to drop their outright line to -150 at DraftKings and -160 at FanDuel after it was trading at -145 last night. Pinnacle, a sharp book, has DC priced at -142, so the -145 at BetMGM looks like a solid deal relative to the direction the MLS odds are moving in.
This play is more than a market-based read. DC has an edge in expected goals, 1.15 to 1, and expected goals allowed, 1.08 to 1.55. DC will host and has gone a surprisingly unimpressive 3-2-2 at home this season, but Montreal is an atrocious 1-0-7 on the road. They have an MLS-worst goal differential in away games (-16).
DC also has an edge in the net. Goalie Tyler Miller owns a save percentage of 71.9% and ranks a solid 13th in clean sheet percentage at 33.3%. Montreal’s goalie, Jonathan Sirois, owns a save percentage of 70.9% and outpaces Miller in clean sheet percentage at 38.5% but has allowed 2.1 goals per road start.
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Today’s MLS Bet: DC United -145 at BetMGM
