Matchday 19 has arrived in the MLS, and with it comes plenty of betting value. Last week’s column nearly locked up the 2-0 sweep with Seattle and Columbus outrights, but Seattle allowed a goal at 89′ to seal the draw. Oh well, we still hit Columbus at +175. Let’s dive into today’s best MLS bets for Matchday 19.
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Best MLS Bets, Picks & Predictions for Matchday 19: Value on Two Home Favorites
Nashville SC-St. Louis SC Odds
MLS Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Nashville: -140 | Draw: +285 | St. Louis: +360
Nashville SC opened as a much bigger favorite for their Matchday 19 game against St. Louis SC, but the odds have slowly moved in favor of St. Louis. This shouldn’t concern prospective bettors. Nashville has drawn 93% of the handle wagered on the spread as a one-goal favorite. The club has also drawn 57% of the handle on the moneyline.
Few clubs have been better at home this year than Nashville. With a 6-2-1 home record, Nashville trails only FC Cincinnati for points picked up at home. The club has gone 4-0-1 through the last five games played in Nashville. The defense and goalkeeper Joe Willis have allowed only five goals at home this year.
Nashville SC draws St. Louis SC today. St. Louis has gone a reasonably solid 3-1-3 on the road, good for 10 points, but recent games haven’t gone the club’s way. St. Louis is 1-3-1 through its last five road contests. My MLS betting model has Nashville winning 59% of the time; FiveThirtyEight’s model has them winning 64% of the time — both of which are better than the -140 (58.3%) at DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Today’s MLS Bet: Nashville -140 at DraftKings
San Jose Earthquakes-Portland Timbers Odds
MLS Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
San Jose: +130 | Draw: +250 | Portland: +190
The San Jose Earthquakes are undefeated at home, yet the Portland Timbers have drawn enough action for the books to tighten this line in advance of the Matchday 19 contest. That’s cool with me — we can get San Jose at a much better price because of the line movement.
San Jose’s home record is quite impressive, but it helps that Portland struggles on the road. The Earthquakes have gone 6-2-0 at home this year, good for 20 points, and are 4-1 through their last five home games. The Timbers are 1-3-5 on the road this year, good for only six points.
Portland may have drawn some extra action now that goalkeeper David Bingham is healthy, but Bingham doesn’t move the needle much for me. He has allowed five goals in five starts this year, three of which came in his lone start on the road. Bingham helped Portland shut out FC Dallas last week but faced only two shots on target.
My model gives San Jose a 49% chance of winning; FiveThirtyEight gives them a 47% chance. Both of those are better than the +130 (43.5%) at DraftKings Sportsbook, so let’s lock this one in over there. A whopping 80% of the handle wagered on the spread has come in on San Jose to cover as well.
Today’s MLS Bet: San Jose +130 at DraftKings
