Spain punched its ticket to the Women’s World Cup Final on Tuesday morning and will meet either Australia or England, who face off on Wednesday. Australia is looking to become only the second team ever to play in the World Cup Final for a tournament it hosted; the other was the United States in 1999. So far, Australia has been nearly perfect, barring a strange 3-2 loss to Nigeria on Matchday 2. With a 3-1-0 record in those other matches, and having outscored its opponents 9-0, Australia should feel confident about its chances. Nonetheless, England is the highest-ranked team left in the tournament and has its own sense of swagger at the moment. It is 4-1-0 Down Under, with three clean sheets to boot. While Lauren James is serving the second leg of her two-match suspension, England will not shy away at a chance to reach its second major tournament final in just over one calendar year. Continue reading for the best Women’s World Cup bets, an Australia-England prediction and the latest tournament odds.
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Women’s World Cup Odds: Australia-England Odds
| Australia Moneyline/Odds to Advance | +230/+120 |
| England Moneyline/Odds to Advance | +130/-150 |
| Draw Moneyline | +195 |
| Over/Under 1.5 Total Goals | Over: -185, Under: +150 |
| Location | Stadium Australia, Sydney, Australia |
| Time | 6:00 a.m. ET |
| TV | FOX/Telemundo |
Breaking Down the Australia-England Odds
England is the marginal favorite here, as both teams have plus moneyline odds. Currently, England’s odds to win in regular time and to just advance sit at +130 and -150, respectively, equating to implied win probabilities of 43.5% and 60%.
In five head-to-head matches since 2011, these teams are 2-1-2 against one another. Their most recent encounter ended 2-0 in favor of Australia, thanks to Sam Kerr and Charlotte Grant goals on either side of halftime. To this day, that stands as Sarah Wiegman’s only loss as manager of England in 37 matches.
This goes to show that this match could probably go either way. England has not slipped at this World Cup, but it has been far from perfect, being held to one goal or less on three occasions. Furthermore, it has only played one team in the top 15 (China) and has played no teams in the top 10. Australia has played and beaten the fifth-, seventh- and 13th-best teams in the world in a matter of days. Underdog or not, it probably means its +230 odds to win in regular time are a bit exaggerated.
Australia-England Prediction: The Over/Under
At this stage of the tournament, everyone should be used to the under being favored. This is the same story in this match, just heightened to an extreme level. In fact, the under on 2.5 goals sits at a staggeringly juicy -210, while the under on 1.5 goals offers improved but risky odds of +150.
In these teams’ 10 combined World Cup matches so far, 60% have stayed under 2.5 goals, with an average of 2.3 goals per contest. Additionally, only one of their five head-to-head matches eclipsed the 2.5-goal total.
While the under market probably is not worth shopping, it could be used as a parlay leg, or perhaps look into the clean sheet market or fade both teams to score to get the same effect. Currently, the latter offers -140 odds, but an Australia clean sheet stands out at +200. This is a great play for a team that has held four clean sheets against countries like Canada, Denmark and France.
Australia-England Prediction
Overall, bet heavy on Australia in this one. It is the underdog and doing the same thing for Sweden in its semifinal did not pay off, but Australia is the tournament host, and that has a pull of its own, especially in Sydney.
Australia has the ability to pull this out, at least in extra time or penalties. While the moneyline play has serious value, it feels a little too risky against a tricky England team. Also, the Australia clean sheet is a solid play as well. Without James in the lineup, England lacks that last bit of creativity needed to bypass a stonewall Aussie back line. And at +200, it is hard to pass up, knowing the stats.
With that being said, Alessia Russo can get two shots or more on target for the only England-centric play. This bet did not disappoint last time out against Colombia, as Russo put three on frame. Again, without James in the mix, a lot of chances will fall her way.
Final Australia-England Prediction: Australia to Advance (+120, DraftKings)
Australia Clean Sheet (+200, DraftKings)
Alessia Russo 2 or More Shots on Target (+140, DraftKings)
