Early Saturday morning, Australia and France will lock horns for the third semifinal spot at the 2023 Women’s World Cup. The winner will go on to face either England or Colombia, which will be decided right after the first match concludes. In terms of the game itself, Australia and France are respectively the 10th- and fifth-best teams in the world according to FIFA, so expect some high level, front-foot play. France has built steam since its 0-0 draw against Jamaica, rattling off three consecutive victories and outscoring opponents 12-4. Meanwhile, Australia, who has co-hosted this tournament, has taken down Canada and Denmark, with only 10 minutes of Sam Kerr in four games. Its run has been very impressive, holding three clean sheets as well, making this a very difficult match to predict. Continue reading for the best Women’s World Cup bets and Australia-France prediction and odds.
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Women’s World Cup Odds: Australia-France Odds
| Australia Moneyline/Odds to Advance | +265/+140 |
| France Moneyline/Odds to Advance | +105/-175 |
| Draw Moneyline | +215 |
| Over/Under 2.5 Total Goals | Over: +130, Under: -160 |
| Location | Suncorp Stadium, Milton, Australia |
| Time | 3:00 a.m. ET |
| TV | FOX/Telemundo |
Breaking Down the Australia-France Odds
Overall, France is the slight regular time favorite, with moneyline odds of +105. However, its odds to advance, which cover a victory in extra time or penalties, become much juicier at -175, equating to an implied win probability of 63.6%. On the other hand, Australia’s +265 and +140 odds make it out to be too much of an underdog.
Coincidentally, these teams met just a few weeks ago in the buildup to this World Cup. Australia actually won that match 1-0 thanks to Mary Fowler in what has been the only loss of Herve Renard’s tenure as France manager.
Moreover, Kerr could very well start for Australia on Saturday, which adds a ton of value in favor of Australia. She joins a team that is already getting goals from Fowler, Hayley Raso and Caitlin Foord. Adding arguably the best player in the world to that mix, how is it still priced at +265 in regular time?
Australia-France Prediction: The Over/Under
On the goal front, this match is being priced similarly to many other Women’s World Cup matches. The over on 2.5 goals is at +130, with the reverse option sitting at -160, making it practically impossible to favor fewer goals. However, the tournament is starting to come out of this trend a little bit, with more head-to-head quality on display. In 10 knockout matches so far, the games have split down the middle in terms of over/under on 2.5 total goals. Moreover, in these six matches featuring two top-20 teams, the over on 2.5 goals has hit 66.6% of the time.
It goes without saying that these are two high-powered offenses as well, combining for 21 goals over eight matches. Specifically, France has been flying, with a combined seven goals in just three games for Kadidiatou Diani and Eugenie Le Sommer. With all of that said, the over is more favorable here at a very solid +130.
Australia-France Prediction
Over the course of this tournament, Australia has played some serious competition. Nigeria, Canada and Denmark have prepared it extremely well for this moment, even without its best player having much of an influence yet. Australia has already lost too, which helped it fine-tune some aspects of its defense. In fact, since that 3-2 defeat to Nigeria, it has not conceded, only allowing an expected goals of 1.3 over two matches. With five clean sheets in its last six matches across all competitions, its defense, led by Steph Catley, is going to be extremely hard to break down.
France has not really had that luxury of preparation, playing Jamaica, Brazil, Panama and Morocco. It has been an easier World Cup road to say the least, and now it is facing the hosts, which is a challenge in its own right given the levels of energy that will be on display in Milton.
In turn, ride with Australia to advance at +140. It is not the most confident play on the Aussies, but one has to respect France’s ability to make this interesting.
Final Australia-France Prediction: Australia to Advance (+140, DraftKings)
Over 2.5 Total Goals (+130, DraftKings)
