On Saturday morning, England squares off against Colombia in the quarterfinals of the 2023 Women’s World Cup. On paper, this is quite the mismatch for the quarters, considering these teams are 21 places apart in the latest FIFA Women’s rankings. With the USA and Germany already eliminated, England is now the odds-on favorite to the win the entire tournament and, in turn, this match. However, as Lauren James sits out as part of her two-match ban, questions arise as to whether or not an upset is in the cards for England. Continue reading for the best Women’s World Cup bets and England-Colombia prediction and odds.
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Women’s World Cup Odds: England-Colombia Odds
| England Moneyline/Odds to Advance | -205/-390 |
| Colombia Moneyline/Odds to Advance | +600/+290 |
| Draw Moneyline | +270 |
| Over/Under 1.5 Total Goals | Over: -200, Under: +160 |
| Location | Stadium Australia, Sydney, Australia |
| Time | 6:30 a.m. ET |
| TV | FOX/Telemundo |
Breaking Down the England-Colombia Odds
England is a heavy favorite in this one, especially to advance should the match need an additional 30 minutes. In fact, its odds to advance sit at -390, equating to an implied win probability of 79.6%. This is a team that just does not lose often. In 28 matches since April of 2021, it has only lost twice, to Australia and France, two more teams among the world’s elite. Even if it is forced to extra time and penalties, England usually wins those too; refer back to the Finalissima or Nigeria match to see how strong it is from the spot.
This is not to say Colombia has no chance, because it does. Any team that can topple South Korea and Germany in back-to-back matches is capable of winning against the very best. But the likelihood of another massive upset is significantly smaller. Those wins have context too, as this South Korea team was surprisingly poor all tournament, and Colombia produced two goals from just 0.4 expected goals against Germany, with a 97th-minute winner to boot. It would be almost impossible to write a fairy tale that good again, which is why the odds favor England so heavily, even without James in its attack.
England-Colombia Prediction: The Over/Under
For the over/under, it is definitely better to side with fewer goals in this contest. In their eight combined World Cup matches so far, only two have exceeded 2.5 total goals, and they have combined for five clean sheets.
While Colombia’s defense tends to allow more chances, England’s is strong from front to back thanks to players like Rachel Daly, Lucy Bronze and Millie Bright. Its squad has averaged 68% possession in four games while only being expected to concede 3.3 goals. While it is impressive it has only allowed one actual goal, its ball control and calmness when the game is tight is the key takeaway.
Nonetheless, betting under 2.5 total goals offers little to no value at -205, so it is time to get creative. There are plenty of options out there, including fading both teams to score, playing the clean sheet market or using under 2.5 goals in a single-game parlay.
England-Colombia Prediction
When it comes down to it, England should win this match at Stadium Australia in Sydney. All of the reasons above impact this choice, but it is also because of its tournament experience. Remember, it just won the Euros in 2022, a tournament with the same format, facing off against elite competition. Going through those knockout rounds prepared it for this moment, even though it is now against a weaker opponent.
On the other hand, Colombia does not have that same experience to refer back to. Moreover, individually Colombia has good attackers. Linda Caicedo and Catalina Usme in particular are great players, but it takes more than great individual players to beat England’s defense. Even against Morocco and Jamaica, this Colombia team only put six shots on target, combining for 1.5 expected goals. Its attack is easily subdued, and it will not be the same on the other end, as England will most likely start a trio of Lauren Hemp, Alessia Russio and Chloe Kelly.
With all that being said, ride with England to win to zero, which means England needs to win and hold a clean sheet. This play offers odds of -120, which is great value considering the run England has been on.
Final England-Colombia Prediction: England to Win to Zero (-120, DraftKings)
