Saturday’s Women’s World Cup slate features the Netherlands-South Africa as its lone Round of 16 match, at least for us here in America. The Dutch are looking to make another deep run into the knockout stages, and have a really favorable match in the first round. South Africa are the 54th ranked country in the world, according to FIFA, and barely snuck out of the group stage. In fact, had Thembi Kagtlana not scored her 92nd minute winner against Italy, the teams would have swapped places and this match would have looked a lot different. Nonetheless, we are here to provide you with the best Women’s World Cup bets and our Netherlands-South Africa picks, predictions and more.
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Women’s World Cup Odds: Netherlands-South Africa Odds
| Netherlands Moneyline | -475 |
| South Africa Moneyline | +900 |
| Draw Moneyline | +550 |
| Over/Under 3.5 Total Goals | Over: +120, Under: -145 |
| Location | Allianz Stadium, Moore Park, Australia |
| Time | 4:00 a.m. ET |
| TV | FOX/Telemundo |
Breaking Down the Odds & Recent History
Of course, the Netherlands are significant favorites in this match with -475 moneyline odds; this also equates to an implied win probability of 82.6%. This is fair considering their World Cup runs so far and recent head-to-head performance.
For starters, the Netherlands are still unbeaten in this year’s competition, only conceding once along the way. They really impressed against the United States and had clean victories against Portugal and Vietnam, winning by a combined score of 8-0. Better yet, they are outperforming on their xG and xGA by 2.1 goals and 0.4 goals, respectively. In three friendlies versus South Africa in recent years, the Dutch have won all three a combined scoreline of 9-2.
On the over/under front, this game is expected to feature goals, given the sizable gap in competition. The over on 3.5 total goals sits at +120, which I am honestly not a huge fan of. At the 2023 World Cup, 56% of games have stayed under 2.5 goals, with 75% of games seeing only one team on the scoresheet. The Netherlands have great creators and scorers like Jill Roord and Lieke Martens, but seeing a combined score that eclipses three total goals is a bit exaggerative.
Netherlands-South Africa Picks and Predictions
In terms of how these sides match up, South Africa has their hands full. While they have kept every match close, even against the likes of Sweden and Italy, their defense has struggled. Their back line, spearheaded by Bambanani Mbane has already conceded six goals, which is almost precisely what they were expected to.
It is not a goalkeeping issue either, as there were 5.6 post-shot expected goals. In reality, they just lack defensive quality. If you take a look back at the Italy match, the two goals they conceded were from the penalty spot and corner flag, which all but cements this point.
Oranje leeuwinnen are not a side that will let those easy opportunities go to waste either. When you look at players like Roord and Esmee Brugts, they are lethal, scoring 0.20 and 0.33 goals per shot they take, respectively. Again, I do not think the Netherlands will blow them out like they did against Vietnam, but they undoubtedly have a big attacking advantage.
It is hard to ignore the Netherlands defense too, who will be looking to keep their third clean sheet of the tournament. They face an interesting challenge, going up against a free-flowing South African attack that has played extremely well so far. In fact, their offense is the entire reason they are still here. Against the United States, the Dutch committed 15 fouls which really broke up the States’ rhythm of attack. It will be interesting to see if they use the same strategy and if South Africa can cope should that be what the Netherlands resort to.
From a betting perspective, I like fading both teams to score here which offers -125 odds. This has been a great play all tournament and it has value here. On top of that, you can get a parlay for the Netherlands to win and under 3.5 total goals for even money. Should fading both teams to score fail and the match finishes 2-1, this is a great hedge opportunity. Moreover, if the match ends 1-0, 2-0 or 3-0, we double down and win twice.
Best Netherlands-South Africa Picks: No on both teams to score (-125, DraftKings)
Netherlands win and under 3.5 total goals (+100, DraftKings)
