Spain and the Netherlands square off on Thursday night in the first quarterfinal of the 2023 Women’s World Cup. Currently, Spain is the second favorite — behind only England — to win the whole tournament, with futures odds of +300; conversely, the Netherlands have much longer odds of +1100. The winner of this match will go on to play either Japan or Sweden in the semifinals. Continue reading for the best Women’s World Cup bets and Spain-Netherlands prediction and odds.
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Women’s World Cup Odds: Spain-Netherlands Odds
| Spain Moneyline/Odds to Advance | -120/-205 |
| Netherlands Moneyline | +330/+160 |
| Draw Moneyline | +240 |
| Over/Under 2.5 Total Goals | Over: +115, Under: -140 |
| Location | Wellington Regional Stadium, Wellington, New Zealand |
| Time | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX/Telemundo |
Breaking Down the Spain-Netherlands Odds
Overall, Spain is the strong but not overwhelming favorite, with moneyline (regular time) odds of -120, equating to an implied win probability of 54.5%. Much of this hesitancy draws from the fact that Spain has never made it this far at the Women’s World Cup. In fact, its 5-1 romp over Switzerland was its first ever knockout stage win. Likewise, only a week or so ago it was rocked 4-0 by Japan, a match that left many wondering if Spain could hold up on the biggest stage.
Nonetheless, its chances are bolstered by the fact the Netherlands will be without Danielle van de Donk due to yellow card accumulation. She is one of the more seasoned Dutch players and can be described as the glue that holds the front and back of this team together. She has a bit of feistiness about her too, which is a difficult element to replace on such short notice.
Spain-Netherlands Prediction: The Over/Under
Shifting gears to the goal front, this match is expected to stay on the tame side, with the odds for under 2.5 total goals sitting at -140. If you only watched Spain’s matches, you would think this is crazy, as Spain’s four games have all surpassed that total, averaging 4.5 goals.
However, the Netherlands have stayed under 2.5 goals in 75% of their games so far, with three clean sheets along the way. Again, Spain was shut out when it actually played a country inside the top 15, so take that into consideration. Also, it is worth saying that, in the Round of 16, five matches stayed under 2.5 goals, with 75% of them failing to see both teams score. Fading both teams to score here offers odds of -115, which is a good workaround to essentially betting the under, just with more value.
Finally, in three head-to-head matches since 2019, Spain has won all three on an aggregate scoreline of 5-0; all three matches stayed under the 2.5-goal tally.
Spain-Netherlands Prediction: It Gives Oranje
Just a few days ago, I predicted that the Netherlands would become semifinalists for the second straight Women’s World Cup. That was assuming they would be playing Spain in the quarters, so it is time to stand by that prediction.
Truthfully, this will be the Netherlands’ toughest match yet, even harder than the United States. For one, they will have to endure Spain’s possession and tiki-taka style, led by Jennifer Hermoso and Teresa Abelleira. Japan let Spain have 76% possession in its 4-0 victory and basically let Spain putter around in attack with no real end product. Then Japan scored four on an expected goals of just 0.9. It is that type of bravery in letting the opponent have the ball to open the game up that the Netherlands need to have on Thursday.
It might sound obvious, but their attack has to be absolutely on it too. When chances fall against Spain, they have to convert. Luckily, Jill Roord and Esmee Brugts are both in the goals at this World Cup and should be able to contribute when called upon.
All in all, the play is to back this Dutch team, but only to advance at +160, which provides cover in case of a regular-time draw. On top of that, fading both teams to score at -115 makes sense; once again, this play has hit in 75% of the 56 Women’s World Cup games so far.
Final Spain-Netherlands Prediction: Netherlands to Advance (+160, DraftKings)
No on Both Teams to Score (-115, DraftKings)
