Spain and Sweden are just 90 minutes away from a spot in the Women’s World Cup final, and the two teams square off on Tuesday morning. Spain’s high-powered attack continues to thrive Down Under, and it will be vying to reach its country’s first ever major tournament final. For Sweden, this is a stage of the tournament where it has experienced so much previous heartbreak. It has lost three times in its four trips to the semifinals, dating back to the first Women’s tournament in 1991. Nonetheless, despite going unbeaten in five games and toppling the USA and Japan, Sweden finds itself as an underdog once again. This match will be a hotly contested, top offense versus top defense affair, sure to impress viewers around the world. Continue reading for the best Women’s World Cup bets, a Spain-Sweden prediction and the latest tournament odds.
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Women’s World Cup Odds: Spain-Sweden Odds
| Spain Moneyline/Odds to Advance | +105/-170 |
| Sweden Moneyline/Odds to Advance | +280/+140 |
| Draw Moneyline | +215 |
| Over/Under 2.5 Total Goals | Over: +130, Under: -160 |
| Location | Eden Park, Auckland, New Zealand |
| Time | 4:00 a.m. ET |
| TV | FOX/Telemundo |
Breaking Down the Spain-Sweden Odds
Sweden is the underdog here, with +280 moneyline odds in regular time and +150 odds to advance. Those equate to respective implied win probabilities of 26.3% and 41.6%. In 10 head-to-head matches dating back to 1950, Sweden is just 3-2-5 against its European opponents (1-2-2 since 2019), so these odds are relatively fair.
It is also important to note that this match has a really high probability of going to extra time. In these teams’ four combined knockout matches at this tournament, two have gone past the full 90. Those two matches were both against other top-10 countries too, proving the margins are closer than the books show.
Sweden’s stingy defense is a huge part of this as well. The back line, anchored by Amanda Ilestedt (who also has an astounding four goals at the tournament), has only conceded twice in five matches. It has achieved this on 5.2 expected goals, which is brilliant.
In Spain’s last match against the Netherlands, it struggled going up against another team that had three clean sheets in four World Cup matches. It took it 81 minutes to score, and that was from the penalty spot; it eventually wore the Dutch down and scored again in extra time, but the point stands. Because of the high draw potential, consider a draw moneyline play or playing one of the teams to advance.
Spain-Sweden Prediction: The Over/Under
In terms of the over/under, this match is expected to be quiet on the goal front. Currently, the most up-to-date odds have over 2.5 total goals at +150, while the reverse option sits at a juicy -185. Once again, this is because of the elite Swedish defense. Moreover, 55% of games at this Women’s World Cup have fallen under 2.5 total goals.
People may say that these teams are averaging 3.4 total goals per match at the World Cup and that they have surpassed 2.5 total goals in 70% of their combined games. This is simply based on the difference between top and mediocre competition. Expect a much cleaner match with two top teams going head-to-head for a spot in the World Cup final. Remember, only regular time goals count, which makes a huge difference. There is no value in betting the under here, so try to look for a parlay where it can be a probable leg.
Spain-Sweden Prediction
For the match itself, this honestly could go either way in extra time or penalties. Despite early doubts, Spain has proved to be a real handful. With eight different goal scorers in just five matches and midfielders like Jennifer Hermoso and Aitana Bonmati, who pop all around the pitch, it can truly hit Sweden from all angles. Likewise, Sweden’s players are set piece experts, and its defense will really make an impact in this one, especially as it is expected to lose the possession battle.
One thing certain is the draw moneyline. At +215, this has great value and is a likely play given the margin between these two countries. For the final result, sprinkle half a unit on Spain to win in penalties at +800. This is obviously a riskier bet with very high returns.
Still, Spain is an extremely technical team, so a likely scenario is it winning via a penalty shootout. Sweden already had a penalty shootout against the United States, and it missed two in seven, which should give Spain quite a bit of confidence.
Final Spain-Sweden Prediction: Regular Time Draw Moneyline (+215, DraftKings)
Spain to Win on Penalties (+800, DraftKings)
