The first piece of silverware is up for grabs at the Women’s World Cup as Sweden and Australia face off for a third-place medal. Sweden has an extremely deep history in the third-place match, winning all three of its appearances in 1991, 2011 and 2019. The United States is the only other country that can boast multiple bronze medals. Also, Sweden will be feeling unlucky in how it was knocked out of the semifinals. While Spain was the better team, a late equalizer for Rebecka Blomqvist made Sweden feel as though it clinched extra time, only to be crushed by an Olga Carmona goal just seconds later.
Likewise, Australia comes into this match having lost 3-1 to England in its respective semifinal. The host has battled all tournament but probably lost to the better opponent and manager. Nonetheless, Sam Kerr started her first match of the tournament for Australia and scored a screamer from outside the box, showcasing her immediate impact. While this is already Australia’s best overall result at a Women’s World Cup, it would not mind a podium finish in front of its home fans. Continue reading for the best Women’s World Cup bets, a Sweden-Australia prediction and the latest tournament odds.
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Women’s World Cup Odds: Sweden-Australia Odds
| Sweden Moneyline/Odds to Finish 3rd | +135/-125 |
| Australia Moneyline/Odds to Finish 3rd | +180/+100 |
| Draw Moneyline | +245 |
| Over/Under 1.5 Total Goals | Over: -130, Under: +105 |
| Location | Suncorp Stadium, Milton, Australia |
| Time | 4:00 a.m. ET |
| TV | FOX/Telemundo |
Breaking Down the Sweden-Australia Odds
All in all, this match is extremely tight, both on paper and in the odds. Sweden is the narrow favorite, with a moneyline of +135 and odds to win bronze at -125, equating to respective implied win probabilities of 42.6% and 55.6%. Australia has slightly longer moneyline odds of +180.
These are probably fair given that in seven head-to-head matches, dating back to 2011, Sweden is 4-2-1 against the Aussies. Its last meeting represents Sweden’s only loss, which was a 4-0 drubbing last November, featuring goals from Caitlin Foord, Mary Fowler and Kerr. This was just a friendly, so take it with a grain of salt.
It makes sense to look past any sort of draw or extra-time play here. Fatigue will probably have its part to play in this match, and while a bronze medal is fantastic, the stakes are undeniably lower. In turn, these matches generally sort themselves out within the provided 90 minutes. Over the course of eight completed Women’s World Cups, only 25% of third-place matches have advanced past regular time.
Sweden-Australia Prediction: The Over/Under
On the goal front, this one is expected to surpass the over on 2.5 total goals. That play offers -130 odds, while the reverse option sits at +105. So far, the knockout rounds have been a polar opposite experience to the low-scoring encounters of the group stage. In fact, in 14 knockout matches, over 57% have eclipsed over 2.5 goals. This lines up with the results of Sweden and Australia too; in their 12 combined matches, over 58% have also hit the over. And finally, for what it is worth, about 63% of third-place matches in Women’s World Cup history have also hit the over.
Both of these teams have prolific goal scorers too. For Australia, Kerr is a machine and can pick it out from anywhere on the field, basically. After a shortened World Cup experience, she will want to add to her highlight reel. With odds of +185 to score anytime, she is one to keep an eye on. On the other side, Amanda Ilestedt has become an unlikely Golden Boot favorite for Sweden, having scored four goals, all from defense. Sweden’s set pieces are deadly, so it will be interesting to watch how Australia defends.
Sweden-Australia Prediction
Overall, Sweden has the experience in big matches like this. Moreover, its head-to-head record against Australia shows its abilities to see this final match out. It will be an open contest and goals will be scored, so also consider a play on the over and for Kerr to find her way on the scoresheet.
Final Sweden-Australia Prediction: Sweden Moneyline (+135, DraftKings)
Sam Kerr to Score (+185, DraftKings)
Over 2.5 goals (-130, DraftKings)
