On Sunday morning, the United States Women’s National Team (USWNT) plays Sweden for a spot in the Women’s World Cup quarterfinals. So far, this tournament has been mediocre for the Americans, and that is putting it very nicely. Two draws and only four goals in three matches saw them finish in second place behind the Netherlands, just inches away from being eliminated in its final match versus Portugal. They now face Peter Gerhardsson’s Sweden, who won all three games in Group G while only conceding a single goal. In this post, we will be making our USA-Sweden predictions and picks, but first take a look at the USA-Sweden odds below.
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Women’s World Cup Odds: USA-Sweden Odds
| USA Moneyline | +115 |
| Sweden Moneyline | +255 |
| Draw Moneyline | +210 |
| Over/Under 2.5 Total Goals | Over: -135, Under: +170 |
| Location | Melbourne Rectangular Stadium, Melbourne, Australia |
| Time | 5 a.m. ET |
| TV | FOX/Telemundo |
Breaking Down the Odds & Recent History
The USWNT is the marginal favorite on Sunday, with moneyline odds of +115 and odds to advance of -170. The respective implied win probabilities for those plays are 46.5% and 62.9%. In fairness, one has to go back all the way to November to find a USWNT loss, so having any type of plus odds on the moneyline is good value. Despite not living up to expectations, it still is a hard team to send packing.
Also, while the Americans have played in an unfamiliarly poor fashion, Sweden is a very familiar opponent. All time, the USWNT is 23-12-7 against the Swedes; more recently, in its last 10 head-to-head meetings, it is 4-4-2. At the World Cup, the Americans have an even better record, going 4-1-1, with the lone defeat coming in the 2011 group stage.
USA-Sweden Picks and Predictions
In my last article, I made a bold bet that the USA would get knocked out in the quarterfinals by a superior Japan team. That tips the hand with this game, and in turn the USWNT will be able to grit its way through. This is a country that has received a podium finish and medal at every single Women’s World Cup. Choosing it to go out in the Round of 16 to Sweden, a country it knows inside and out, seems almost too bold.
Sweden deserves its flowers too. It was terrific in the group stage, and it never took its foot off the gas pedal, which is the sign of a really well-disciplined team. On top of that, it has set piece quality — specifically from the corner flag — that is unmatched, not only in women’s soccer, but international soccer. Seriously, almost half of its 11 goals were from corner kicks.
Defenders like Amanda Ilestedt have been able to contribute on offense because of this while also holding it down at the back. Sweden has only conceded once, slightly outperforming its expected goals against of 2.2. For an American offense that has underperformed on its expected goals tally by over three goals, it is going to be hard to beat Zecira Musovic. Not to mention, Rose Lavelle is suspended for this match, which takes away a serious creator for the Americans.
Regardless, the USWNT should still get the job done, at least in this match. If this sounds disgruntled, it is because it should be playing so much better. It was so close to being labeled the worst USWNT ever had that post not saved it against Portugal, and the worst part was that it did not seem like that bothered the Americans.
If they can stretch Sweden’s back line with their pace and control the ball better, they have a good chance here. Someone will have to step up on offense, though (looking at you, Alex Morgan), because the Americans have looked simply boring since their match versus World Cup first-timer Vietnam.
Remember, any time betting on the USWNT seems like a hot take, there is good value because a U.S. win is still the probable result. On top of that, both teams to score in this one at even money is also a good play. Despite this epically trending the other way Down Under, the USWNT defense is untested, and it is hard to see Sweden not scoring.
Final USA-Sweden Picks: USWNT Moneyline (+115, DraftKings)
Both Teams to Score (+100, DraftKings)
