Women’s World Cup Best Bets: Japan-Spain and Canada-Australia Predictions

On Monday, Groups B and C will wrap up play at the 2023 Women’s World Cup with a four-match slate. Below we will provide the best Women’s World Cup bets for Japan-Spain and Canada-Australia as those two matches have the most influence on the rest of the tournament.

The only team that eliminated so far in Group B is Ireland. Their final match will come against the first-place Super Falcons of Nigeria, who have been one of the more delightful surprises of the tournament. With motivation in mind, I favor Nigeria to go on and qualify at this point. Now, the other match in this group is Canada-Australia, which is where things get interesting. These teams sit on four and three points, respectively, so who qualifies depends on the result. Moreover, Sam Kerr declared herself fit for Australia; it cannot get better than that for the Matildas.

On the contrary, Group C is a bit more straightforward. Japan and Spain have already qualified with wins over Costa Rica and Zambia. Now, they face each other for first place bragging rights and placement in the knockouts. The runner-up of Group C will most likely have to play the United States in the quarterfinals, rather than the semifinals, so there is a lot still to play for.

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Women’s World Cup Odds: Japan-Spain Odds

Japan-Spain Prediction

Both Japan and Spain have had eerily similar World Cup runs so far. Two wins over the same two teams, two clean sheets and only a one-point margin on goal difference. However, the odds for this game and their futures at this tournament are significantly different. Japan and Spain have odds of +1800 and +300, respectively, to win the entire tournament. On top of that, Spain is a -130 favorite for Monday morning, giving them an implied win probability of 56.5%. Their recent head-to-head play backs these numbers too. These teams have met four times since 2017 with Spain going 3-1-0.

Japan also has a horrific record on the last day of the group stage; in eight tournaments so far, Futoshi Ikeda’s side has only won once. Whether that is strategy or coincidence, it is an important trend to follow. While it is obvious Japan are not the side they once were, they are still one of the finer teams Down Under. They might not have won many matches against top sides this year, but they rarely got beat by more than a goal, which is a testament to their discipline.

In the same vein, while we have some lovely creators on both sides, including the likes of Alexia Putellas, Jennifer Hermoso and Aoba Fujino, this match will be a quiet one.  There is a lot to play for, but it also is a chance for some rotation and to put the brakes on a little bit. Also, both defenses are top-notch: if you look at their last twenty combined matches, they have only conceded 0.45 goals per match, with 13 combined clean sheets.

In turn, I am going to side with a parlay on Spain to win and under 2.5 total goals. You’ll find that wager priced at odds of +185 via DraftKings. We placed a similar bet on England-Denmark and it played out perfectly.

Final Japan-Spain Prediction: Spain Moneyline and Under 2.5 Total Goals (+185, DraftKings)

Women’s World Cup Odds: Canada-Australia Odds

Canada-Australia Prediction

In our other Monday morning contest, you just have to favor the hosts. This is one of the rare situations where your gut instinct is probably the right one. Ignore the fact Canada has beaten Australia three times since 2016. Ignore the fact Australia lost to Nigeria, who sit 30 spots below them in the FIFA Women’s Rankings. None of that matters with elimination on the line at the World Cup.

Heart matters, and this team is playing with the entire country behind them in support. You simply cannot recreate that advantage. On top of that, Sam Kerr either could be starting for the Matildas or be available off the bench, a detail head coach Tony Gustavsson was hesitant to reveal at this point in time. Kerr was my pick for the Golden Boot before the tournament started and is widely considered to be one of the top footballers in the entire world. If you look through her match logs with the national team, you will see she has led them to an 11-1-3 record in her last 15 matches.

Canada have their own heroes as well in the likes of Christine Sinclair, Jessie Fleming and Kadeisha Buchanan. However, Canada still have not been overly impressive Down Under. They have only scored one proper goal so far and now face the pressure of potentially falling out of the tournament. Keep it simple and back the Aussies on the moneyline moneyline at +120.

Final Canada-Australia Prediction: Australia Moneyline (+120, DraftKings)