With both Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz winning their semifinal matches in convincing fashion, tennis bettors are getting prepped for the final they dreamed of between the two best players in the sport. BetMGM has already set lines for the title match taking place on Sunday. Let’s dive into the Wimbledon odds for Alcaraz-Djokovic and see if there is any edge to be gained leading up.
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Wimbledon Tennis Odds: Djokovic Favored in Final vs. Alcaraz
Wimbledon Champion Odds, via BetMGM
Novak Djokovic -185
Carlos Alcaraz +155
These two met in the semifinal of the French Open last month in what was expected to be an exciting matchup of new vs. establishment. However, Alcaraz suffered cramps after winning the second set and ended up being noncompetitive the rest of the way, dropping the last two sets to Djokovic 6-1, 6-1. However, Alcaraz is still the No. 1 player in the ATP rankings and has absolutely cruised through Wimbledon. In six matches, he has lost only two sets — one in Round 3 and one in Round 4. Alcaraz also cleaned up against No. 3 Daniil Medvedev on Friday, with an impressive 6-3, 6-3, 6-3 win to advance to the final.
Djokovic, meanwhile, has also dropped just two sets throughout the tournament, and though his semifinal victory was slightly less of a blowout than Alcaraz’s, Djokovic still defeated No. 8 Jannik Sinner in straight sets. He has also won four straight Wimbledon titles and three of the last four grand slams, with Alcaraz’s U.S. Open win in 2022 being the only thing preventing a Djokovic sweep.
Because of Djokovic’s control of this tournament over the past few years, it makes sense that he is a solid favorite despite sitting a slot below Alcaraz in the world rankings. That said, Alcaraz has looked every bit as dominant on this run and has arguably faced stiffer competition.
As far as history between these two, there have only been two matches between them: The French Open semifinal last month and another clay-court battle back in 2022. Alcaraz took the earlier one, though it was only a best-of-three match and he snuck by 6-7, 7-5, 7-6. Of course, clay is the polar-opposite surface to grass, so the small sample does not offer much insight at all.
Djokovic will be looking to extend his grand slam record to 24, while Alcaraz is looking to add No. 2 to his resume. With a win on Sunday, Alcaraz will become the fourth-youngest male tennis player ever at the time of his second grand slam win, trailing only Boris Becker (18 years, 7 months), Bjorn Borg (18 years, 11 months) and Rafael Nadal (19 years, 11 months).
Stay tuned to OddsShopper for positive expected value tennis bets as we head toward the Wimbledon finale. OddsShopper’s market-based betting modeluses the sharpest linemakers in the industry to find the true odds of a bet, it then identifies where the prices are off so you can find the highest ROI bets on the tennis odds board. The team also creates expert analysesand model bets for all major sports.
