March Madness is finally here, and I have you covered with all your best bet needs for the tournament. We get started with an electric Thursday slate featuring some of the top teams in this year’s field. It’s why we are here to talk about our Round of 64 Thursday best bets, including a key look at Samford.
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Round of 64 Thursday Best Bets
No. 14 Akron vs. No. 3 Creighton
Akron is back in the NCAA Tournament, and if there’s one thing you can bank on, it’s ironically the Zips playing at a slow pace. Akron ranks 276th in adjusted tempo, while Creighton ranks 212nd. That sets up for one of my favorite March Madness trends – since 2017, the first half under is 148-111-6 (57%) in games between teams averaging fewer than 70 possessions per game, and this game fits the bill.
Creighton is a heavy jump-shooting team, ranking second in the rate of jump shots taken. Akron boasts an elite jump-shooting defense, ranking in the 99th percentile and allowing a bottom-30 rate of unguarded jumpers. It wouldn’t be shocking to see the Bluejays shooters get off to a slow start in a tournament setting – their opening game against NC State last year featured just 54 first-half points.
Akron rarely looks to push the ball in transition, and Creighton allows the 21st-fewest transition possessions per game. The Bluejays have an elite rim defense with Ryan Kalkbrenner and force opponents to take tough mid-range jumpers. Creighton also fouls at the lowest rate in the country, never sending opponents to the line for free points.
In the Zips’ only other tournament appearance under head coach John Groce, they finished with 51 first-half points against UCLA. Groce looks to grind these tournament games to a halt, and five of his six opponents in the tournament have failed to hit 65 points for the game. His defensive recipe should work, at least in the first half, while nerves are more of a factor.
With an early tip and two slow-paced, stout half-court defenses, the first-half under is my favorite play in this game.
Round of 64 Thursday Best Bets: First Half Under 66.5 Points (Play to 65)
No. 14 Morehead State vs. No. 3 Illinois
In the NCAA Tournament, I always look to fade top-seeded teams with a glaring weakness. That’s exactly what we have with this Illinois team. The Illini rank third in adjusted offensive efficiency but just 96th on the defensive end. Since the beginning of February, that split has been even more drastic, with Illinois ranking first on offense and 155th on defense.
The Illini defense is particularly dreadful on the perimeter. They allow unguarded jump shots at a 49% rate, which ranks 282nd in the country per Synergy. In this game, they face a Morehead State team featuring Jordan Lathon and Kalil Thomas, two guards scoring in double figures and shooting better than 38% from 3-point range.
Riley Minix leads the Jackrabbits with 20.8 points per game and is also a tremendous interior defender. According to ShotQuality, Minix ranks sixth in the tournament in FG% allowed as the primary interior defender. That interior defense will be crucial against Terrence Shannon, one of the country’s best scorers off the dribble.
Morehead State also boasts an excellent transition defense, ranking 17th in the country in points allowed on the open floor per Synergy. That’s critical against an Illinois team that thrives in transition. I expect the Eagles to slow the pace tremendously, as they rank 334th in adjusted tempo.
Illinois is a team I’m targeting for an early exit in the tournament, and I wouldn’t be shocked if that comes as early as this first-round game. It will be easy to overlook this Morehead team after its triumphant Big Ten championship, and the Eagles have tons of poise and experience. I’d recommend a sprinkle on the ML in addition to a play on the spread.
Round of 64 Thursday Best Bets: Morehead State +11.5 (play to +10.5)
No. 10 Nevada vs. No. 7 Dayton
It was disappointing to see Nevada’s early exit in the Mountain West Tournament, as I believe this is the best team in the conference. The Wolf Pack had been in tremendous form entering the tournament, as they are 17th in adjusted efficiency since February 1st according to Bart Torvik. However, several players were hit with the flu, which played a large part in their first-round loss to Colorado State.
However, that early exit could pay dividends for the Wolf Pack here, as they have a full week to prepare for this game. Mountain West teams were completely under-seeded in this year’s bracket, and the committee cited concerns over reliance on altitude as a key reason. Well, this game is taking place in Salt Lake City, Utah, which is over 4,300 feet above sea level. Advantage: Wolf Pack.
Dayton hasn’t played a game at altitude all season, and it will be a greater adjustment for the Flyers, especially given their lack of depth—they rank 345th in bench minutes this season. That lack of depth could become a further issue if Nevada can get to the line often like they have all season, ranking third in free throw rate this year.
Nevada runs its offense through a lethal guard tandem of Kenan Blackshear and Jarod Lucas, and they should have plenty of success against a Dayton defense that ranks dead last in defending isolation per Synergy. Dayton boasts a 20-point-per-game scorer, Da’Ron Holmes, but the rest of the roster has been inconsistent at best and unreliable at worst. If Holmes gets into foul trouble early here, Dayton could be in big trouble in front of what should be a pro-Nevada crowd in Salt Lake City.
Round of 64 Thursday Best Bets: Nevada -1 (play to -2)
No. 15 South Dakota State vs. No. 2 Iowa State
Iowa State enters the NCAA Tournament fresh off a Big 12 championship punctuated by blowout wins over Baylor and Houston. However, I still have major concerns about the Cyclones’ offense that I believe could be exposed in this tournament. Iowa State ranks in the 63rd percentile in half-court efficiency per Synergy, and they’re facing a South Dakota State team that will force them to operate in the half-court.
South Dakota State rarely pushes for offensive rebounds, allowing them to limit opponents to a low rate of transition chances – they’re outside the top 300 in both. While they didn’t do it often during the regular season, we could also see the Jackrabbits dial up the press at times in this game. They rank top 70 in efficiency when pressing while Iowa State is just 235th against the press.
Iowa State’s defense is elite, but their aggressive blitzing ball-screen pressure leaves them vulnerable to weakside spot-up shooting. The Cyclones are 233rd in open 3-point rate allowed, while the Jackrabbits have four core rotation players shooting better than 37% from deep. They’re also top 25 in both catch-and-shoot and off-the-dribble 3-point efficiency per ShotQuality.
Iowa State has hit peak market value after two blowout wins over Baylor and Houston, but I’m still not sold on this offense being of a high enough caliber for a deep tournament run. I’ll be looking to fade the Cyclones, and this game presents a strong sell-high opportunity against a South Dakota State team that will slow down the pace and shoot plenty of 3s, which you always want in a double-digit underdog.
Round of 64 Thursday Best Bets: South Dakota State +16 (play to +14.5)
No. 13 Samford vs. No. 4 Kansas
After plenty of preseason hype and big-time non-conference wins over UConn, Tennessee, and Kentucky, it looked like Kansas was poised for a run as a national title contender. Instead, the Jayhawks lost eight conference games, their most since the 1988 season. Now, they enter the NCAA Tournament without leading scorer Kevin McCullar Jr.
The McCullar absence is particularly meaningful for several reasons. First, this is already a Kansas team that lacks depth, ranking 318th in bench minutes. That contrasts starkly with a Samford team that ranks third in bench minutes. The Bulldogs are one of the deepest teams in the country and have six different rotation players shooting better than 38% from 3-point range.
Samford’s depth is needed to maintain its frenetic, relentless brand of basketball. The Bulldogs rank 12th in adjusted tempo and press their opponents at the second-highest rate in the country. Kansas will be overwhelmed by that style of play, as it ranks outside the top 250 offenses against the press, per Synergy.
Hunter Dickinson’s return to the lineup is significant for Kansas, and he should find success against an undersized Samford frontline. Still, Kansas ranks 334th in 3-point attempt rate, and it will require a highly efficient 2-point scoring game to keep pace with Samford’s 3-point barrage, particularly with the expected benefit of additional possessions via turnovers.
Like the Dayton-Nevada game, this is taking place at altitude in Salt Lake City. That favors Samford as the far deeper team, particularly with “Bucky Ball” creating tons of matchup problems for the Jayhawks. Kansas hasn’t lost in the first round of the tournament since 2006, but that changes on Thursday.
Round of 64 Thursday Best Bets: Samford +7 (play to +6.5)
No. 10 Drake vs. No. 7 Washington State
For the second straight season and the third time in the last four years, the Drake Bulldogs are going dancing. Last season, Drake went out in the first round in tragic fashion. With 5:40 left in the game, Drake held an 8-point lead over Miami. Unfortunately, their offense went stagnant from that point forward as Miami ended the game on a 16-1 run.
This veteran roster has been waiting for its chance at retribution, and that’s particularly true for Tucker DeVries, who I believe will be the best player on the court on Thursday night. DeVries averages 21.8 points per game, the sixth-most in the country, and is the engine of the 11th-best pick-and-roll offense in the country per Synergy. Washington State ranks 270th defending the pick-and-roll ball-handler, making this a great matchup for DeVries.
As it has been all season, Washington State’s biggest advantage in this game will be its size. The Cougars rank second in the country in average height per KenPom, while the Bulldogs rank 307th. However, despite being undersized, Drake does an excellent job of keeping teams off the offensive glass, ranking 13th in defensive rebounding and top 60 in second-chance conversion rate allowed per Haslametrics.
Drake’s ball screen defense is vulnerable, but I don’t fully trust the Washington State guards to take advantage. Myles Rice is a freshman who has hit a bit of a wall down the stretch, and the Cougars rank in just the 29th percentile in pick-and-roll ball handler efficiency. The Cougars will be able to score at the rim, given their size advantage, which could tip the scales, but the Bulldogs have better guard play.
Head coach Darian DeVries has led Drake to the tournament in three of the past four years, and I believe they’re ready to make a real run in the dance. It starts with a win in Omaha tonight in front of what should be a pro-Drake crowd – Des Moines, Iowa is just under 150 miles from Omaha, Nebraska.
Round of 64 Thursday Best Bets: Drake ML
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