It’s time to continue our best WNBA bets series by showcasing some fun rookie fades and an interesting Marina Mabrey prop.
The WNBA season started with some absolute banger games. The Minnesota Lynx upsetting the newly-formed super-team Storm behind a double-double from young superstar Napheesa Collier. Meanwhile, the reigning champ Las Vegas Aces and runner-up New York Liberty both looked a bit shaky, getting played close by the Phoenix Mercury and Washington Mystics. Caitlin Clark made her WNBA regular season debut alongside the Indiana Fever, getting blown out by the veteran-laden Connecticut Sun amid struggles from Clark, who had 10 turnovers.
Today marks the regular season debuts of two of the other most talked about rookies in this draft class, with No. 2 pick Cameron Brink and No. 4 pick Rickea Jackson suiting up for the Los Angeles Sparks against the Atlanta Dream, and No. 7 pick Angel Reese suiting up for the Chicago Sky, facing the Dallas Wings.
I’ve spoken a bit before about how I feel that books are mispricing lines and offerings around Clark due to the inordinate amount of public interest around her. We cashed my first Clark fade of the season last night, under 23.5 points which I gave out on my new pod Bet She Wins.
Best WNBA Bets Today
Looking at the lines being offered today for Reese and Brink, I think that this ‘Caitlin effect’ extends beyond just Clark, inflating the lines of the other rookies in the 2024 class. It makes sense that the public, and books alike, would be extra-high on this rookie class:
Over the last four years, they’ve played in front of some of the biggest audiences in women’s basketball history during March Madness. I think a combination of public interest and overvaluing preseason results has led linesmakers to assume these rookies’ immediate roles are going to be a bit bigger than they will be in reality. I’m fading rookie debuts across the board:
Rookie Fades: Cameron Brink (LAS) under 12.5 points, Rickea Jackson (LAS) under 12.5 points, Angel Reese (CHI) under 18.5 points and rebounds
But wait! There’s more! I have on more non-rookie bet to tell you about.
Chicago’s Marina Mabrey is absolutely primed to smash her points prop today. Books opened Mabrey’s points line at 14.5 points, basically exactly at her average for last season. The books are badly failing to adjust for the fact that Mabrey averaged 14.5 points playing as an offensive second option behind Kahleah Copper, who was traded to Phoenix in the off-season.
This Sky roster is sorely lacking in offensive weapons, and I’m looking to Mabrey to carry the load scoring. She’s shown she’s able to take on a more volume-scoring role when called upon throughout her career. Finally option 1A this year, I like Mabrey to have a breakout season, I believe she could be an All-Star and a serious contender for Most Improved Player.
Another angle I really love here with Mabrey’s scoring is that she’ll be matched up against her former team, the Dallas Wings, and her best friend Arike Ogunbowale. Mabrey and Ogunbowale played together both for the Wings and in college at Notre Dame, where they were roommates. I like Marina and Arike to feed off each other’s energy scoring wise in this match-up, but Marina is the stronger angle with respect to market value.
The numbers back it up: Marina Mabrey exceeded her scoring averages in each of her three games against the Wings last season, including a 30 point outing against her former team.
Sharps have already moved her prop on many books, but you can still get 14.5 at DraftKings and BetRivers. Ladder this up with smaller bets on her alts at FanDuel for 20+, and Top Points Scorer as well.
Best WNBA Bet Today: Marina Mabrey (CHI) over 14.5 points
