It’s time to continue our best WNBA bets series by showcasing our Mercury-Aces pick, prediction and a look at a solid A’ja Wilson play.
The reigning champion Las Vegas Aces open their three-peat campaign at home, hosting the Phoenix Mercury. While the Aces will be without the services of Chelsea Gray, I still think they’re absolutely in a spot to roll the Mercury here. The Mercury have a more significant absence in Brittney Griner, who will miss the opening weeks of the season with an injury to her toe.
The Mercury have little post depth behind Brittney Griner, and will likely be starting second-year player Morgan Bertsch at the five for the foreseeable future, backed up by fellow post prospect Natasha Mack.
I feel for Mack and Bertsch, because they’re about to have the worst 40 minutes of their lives trying to slow down A’ja Wilson. Wilson is going to absolutely dominate this match-up, so much so that I’m willing to bet her overs despite the blowout risk.
The Mercury’s young center rotation is neither going to be able to keep A’ja off the backboards nor stop her from scoring in the paint at will. FanDuel is hanging Wilson’s points at 23.5 and rebounds at 9.5, I like her to clear both of these lines even if she barely plays in the fourth quarter in a blowout scenario. I will also be playing higher alts for both stats.
Best WNBA Bet: A’ja Wilson over 23.5 points and 9.5 rebounds
In terms of betting a side on this game, I believe the Aces should cover the full game spread, currently -15.5 at most books; but I think there may be even more value on a first half play. Las Vegas trended toward being a first half team last season, tending to build double-digit leads in the first half before somewhat easing off a bit toward the end of games.
There’s a serious coaching mismatch angle here too: Becky Hammon is among the best coaches in professional basketball, and Nate Tibbets of the Mercury is coaching his first half of regular season basketball as a head coach (#FadeGirlDad). Take the first half spread so you can just relax and enjoy basketball after halftime.
Best Mystics-Aces Prediction, Pick and Bet: Las Vegas Aces -8.5 first half spread
