Our WNBA hot streak continues here on OddsShopper, with my last batch of best bets going 3-1! I am especially proud of having successfully called the Washington Mystics’ long-awaited first win last time out. We’ve been on a roll lately, hitting 15 of our last 18 bets in these articles — we’re now 47-32 on the season. We have another three-game slate today, so let’s reinvest and find some more of the best WNBA bets and player props today.
WNBA Best Bets & Player Props Today: June 13
Atlanta Dream-Indiana Fever Bet
The Atlanta Dream, fresh off allowing the Mystics their aforementioned first win, roll through to Indiana to take on the Fever. Looking at things from a sheer narrative, emotional angle, it’s hard to imagine the Atlanta Dream dropping back-to-back games against the two worst teams by record. The Dream have a core of exceptionally tough, proud players — players who, in a phrase, got that dog in them. Rhyne Howard, Allisha Gray, Tina Charles and Cheyenne Parker-Tyus have to be motivated to come out strong in this game coming off the upset by Washington, and I love this bounce-back spot for them against the Fever. The line currently sits at -3.5 or -3 in most books; my modeling like this ends closer to -7 in Atlanta’s favor.
Best WNBA Bet: Atlanta Dream -3.5
In terms of a player prop angle for this game, I’m borrowing one from my dear friend Calvin Wetzel, who gave this out on our podcast, Bet She Wins today.
After she had zero assists against the Mystics, books lowered Rhyne Howard’s assist prop to 3.5. This seems like a bit of an overcorrection to me given that, just the game before, Howard had 10 assists against the Chicago Sky. Howard is averaging close to four assists on the season and will likely be looking to get her teammates going after that assist-less outing ended in a blowout. The Fever allow the second-most assists per 40 minutes in the league and have the league’s worst defensive rating by a pretty wide margin, fully 8.1 points behind the next team.
Best WNBA Player Prop: Rhyne Howard Over 3.5 Assists
Seattle Storm-Dallas Wings Bet
The Dallas Wings seek their first win in five games hosting the red-hot Seattle Storm, who have won seven of their last eight.
This spread opened with the Storm favored by just 2.5 points, which feels ridiculously off given how hot the Storm are and how much the Wings have struggled in the absence of Natasha Howard and Satou Sabally. This is a matchup where the Wings will particularly miss their frontcourt stars as they struggle to contain Ezi Magbegor and Nneka Ogwumike. Over the last eight games as the team’s begun to gel, the Storm had the second-best net rating in the league.
The line-makers don’t seem to understand quite how dominant the Storm are becoming behind their big four of Magbegor, Ogwumike, Jewell Loyd and Skylar Diggins-Smith. Meanwhile, they also seem to not grasp that the Dallas Wings are not the team they were last season without Sabally and Howard.
Although this line has moved a ton from open towards the Storm, now hanging at Storm -7.5, I still would back Seattle on the spread here. My modeling makes this -10, and I would even have it in the low teens.
Best WNBA Bet: Seattle Storm -7.5
Check out our guide to WNBA player prop betting! >>
Las Vegas Aces-Phoenix Mercury Bet
Our lone late game features the Phoenix Mercury, looking much improved since the return of Brittney Griner and Rebecca Allen, hosting the Las Vegas Aces, who have dropped four of their last five games, including three straight losses. There is a beacon of hope for the Aces with Chelsea Gray questionable to play in this game; they’ve sorely missed their point gawd.
When this line first went up, before the news that Gray might play, I loved the Mercury in this game. Phoenix has rediscovered some of its early-season fire, stoked by the returns of Griner and Allen, and the Aces have been playing the worst stretch of basketball they’ve played in years. With all of the options that the Mercury have on offense, and the way that the Aces have struggled on the defensive end this season (8th in defensive rating), I had this pegged as another upset, with the Aces favored by 6.5. If Gray does get ruled out, I would recommend taking the points with the Mercury and sprinkling the moneyline.
Best WNBA Bet (if Chelsea Gray doesn’t play): Phoenix Mercury +6.5
Keep your eyes on notifications from WNBA news-breakers because lines are going to move fast after that news breaks if Gray’s playing, from spreads to props. If she does play, and you get the drop on the books before line movement, I would recommend playing unders on Kelsey Plum and Jackie Young’s points and assists, splitting one unit between those four bets. Even if Gray is on a minute’s restriction, I anticipate that she’ll take a ton of usage away from Plum and Young in the minutes she does play as the Aces look to reintegrate her into their offense.
