Call me Kayla McBride the way I have had the hot hand lately: After going 6-1 on Friday, we followed it up with a 2-0 sweep of our best bets for yesterday’s sole WNBA matchup, a blowout of the Indiana Fever by the Connecticut Sun. We’re on a sick run right now, with 12 of my last 14 bets hitting in these articles–now 44-31 on the season. Let’s keep it rolling with some WNBA best bets and player props for today’s three-game slate.
WNBA Best Bets & Player Props Today: June 11
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Washington Mystics-Atlanta Dream Bet
A cliche that you’ve probably heard by now about the Washington Mystics is that, despite being 0-12, they’ve largely played close games. In fact, only members of the WNBA’s elite have managed to pull of double-digit wins against the league’s worst team by record — they’ve only lost by 10 or more three times this season, against the Storm, Liberty and Sun. Last time the Dream and Mystics met, in Washington, the game was tied headed into the third, with the Dream winning by just 6.
The spread for this game is currently at +7 at most books. While homecourt advantage is flipped, that’s offset by the Mystics likely having Brittney Sykes available and possibly Shakira Austin as well. It’s also offset by the pressure on the Mystics right now, just five losses away from tying the record for worst start in WNBA history, set at 17 by the Dream when they were in their first year of existence as an expansion team back in 2008.
I’m taking the points with Washington and sprinkling a tiny play on the moneyline as well. They have to win some time, right?
Best WNBA Bet: Washington Mystics +7
Speaking of much-needed bounce-backs, I like this as a regression spot for Rhyne Howard, who’s been in an awful shooting slump, shooting an abominable 17-for-54 in the last five games. While Howard isn’t the most efficient scorer in the league, she’s been shooting in the low 30s over these past games and is due for regression. Narratively, I like this to regression to come against the Mystics, the franchise that traded down in the 2022 draft to avoid taking Howard with the No. 1 pick. I love a revenge spot, and I have to imagine Howard feels a bit of extra motivation every time she faces Washington. Let’s buy low on her here at 14.5 points.
Best WNBA Player Prop: Rhyne Howard Over 14.5 Points
Minnesota Lynx-Las Vegas Aces Bet
If you’ve been reading this column, you know that I’ve been riding the Minnesota Lynx since before the WNBA season started. The Lynx have been one of the best teams in the league after coming into the season severely underrated by sportsbooks, and that’s borne out in their record against the spread — 9-2 (8-3 record straight up).
The Aces are one of the only teams that have covered against the Lynx, beating them by 14 points as favorites in that aforementioned game in late May. Shooting variance favored the Aces in that game, with the Lynx shooting 36.9% from the floor and 33.3% from deep, well below their season marks.
In spite of the fear of a repeat of that game, with how the Lynx and Aces have both looked, I had to smash this spread when it opened at +8.5. The Lynx are 8 points better than the Aces by net rating, and the several models I’ve run on this game all agree that this spread should be closer to even, with some of them even showing the Aces as home dogs.
To the surprise of no one, I’m taking Minnesota and the points with a sprinkle on the moneyline.
Best WNBA Bet: Minnesota Lynx +7.5
Another angle I’ve been riding since the season started has been Napheesa Collier’s rebound overs. While books have caught up a bit to her career-high rebounding numbers, she’s still clearing the current line, 10.5, at a really impressive clip. She has 11 or more boards in eight of her 11 games this season, including 13 rebounds against the Aces last time these teams met. Collier will likely draw the defensive assignment on A’ja Wilson for many possessions this game, giving her more time in the low post and more opportunities to crash the board.
Best WNBA Player Prop: Napheesa Collier Over 10.5 Rebounds
