We’re back with more Best Bets for today’s four game Saturday WNBA slate! I’m looking to improve on my 18-15 record on the season so far with some solid bets, and a full schedule today means plenty of value to pick from. Let’s get into our WNBA best bets and player prop picks, but before we do, I’ll recap last week and run through the WNBA action we can expect tonight. Make sure to check out our WNBA betting model and our guide to WNBA player prop betting!
Last week ended with quite a few incredible games. On Thursday, the Minnesota Lynx and Connecticut Sun had an overtime nail-biter decided by just one point (and one bad foul call). The still-winless Washington Mystics had their best shot at a dub yet this season in a letdown game for the Phoenix Mercury, who beat the current worst team in the league by just three points the game after upsetting the best team in the league, the Las Vegas Aces. Meanwhile, the Chicago Sky pulled off their second road upset in two seasons at Barclays Center, beating the New York Liberty 90-81 after getting star Jonquel Jones in foul trouble early. Our sole WNBA game of Friday night was a night cap, with the Indiana Fever getting their first win on the road against the Los Angeles Sparks behind a near triple-double from Caitlin Clark (11 points, 10 rebounds, 8 assists).
The W picks up in just a few hours as the New York Liberty take on the Minnesota Lynx at noon central at Target Center, with reigning MVP Breanna Stewart engaging in some UConn-on-UConn beef with emerging dark horse MVP candidate Napheesa Collier. The Sky return triumphantly home to Wintrust Arena to host the Connecticut Sun, hoping the basketball gods will grant them another upset. The Seattle Storm host the Washington Mystics, Seattle seeking to gain momentum after starting the season 2-3, while the Mystics search for a pulse at 0-6, the sole winless team remaining in the W. The Indiana Fever travel to Las Vegas for a back-to-back against the Aces in the biggest let down spot of all time, more on that later. The Phoenix Mercury host the Dallas Wings, with the stage set for what hopes to be epic scoring battle between Arike Ogunbowale and Kahleah Copper.
Man, I’m excited just thinking about it. Let’s get some bets in, and then lock in on watching some amazing hoop.
WNBA Best Bets & Player Props Today: Saturday, May 25
New York Liberty-Minnesota Lynx Bet
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. I’ve written multiple times about the Lynx being the most underrated team in the league by sportsbooks heading into the season, a fact reflected by their 3-0 record against the spread. The Lynx have been spread underdogs in all four games of their season thus far, with a tough opening schedule featuring the Sun, the Storm (twice), and the Liberty.
The Liberty are favored by 6.5 points with the Lynx at home, and with home-court advantage factored out, that number is simply too long for me. Napheesa Collier has been playing like a true MVP, and the Lynx have looked like the most cohesive unit in the WNBA at times thus far. Add to this that dogs have covered 70% of spreads in the WNBA since Monday, and I’m sold here. Let’s ride the Lynx wave, I’d play this down to +5.5.
Best WNBA Bet for Liberty-Lynx: Minnesota Lynx +6.5
The one area of this game I have concerns about for the Lynx is the matchup in the post. Minnesota is allowing the third-most points in the paint per 40 minutes in the W right now. This makes sense given they run a non-traditional frontcourt with Napheesa Collier and Alanna Smith both playing center-by-committee despite neither being a true “big.”
We saw this play out in the Lynx’s last time out, when they allowed Brionna Jones, not known for her offense, to score 19 points largely by posting up on Collier. Sandy Brondello and the Liberty should look to take advantage of this by trying to get Jonquel Jones, known mostly for her offense, going in the paint against Collier and Smith. Let’s take her points over.
Best WNBA Player Prop for Liberty-Lynx: Jonquel Jones Over 14.5 points
Connecticut Sun-Chicago Sky Bet
Speaking of the Connecticut Sun frontcourt, I think they’re going to cause some issues for the Chicago Sky. The Sky have struggled with their shooting overall to open the season, ranked towards the bottom of the league in effective field goal percentage and true shooting percentage, but have been somewhat buoyed by their work on the backboard.
The Sky lead the league in offensive rebounding, allowing them to create second chance opportunities off their misses. This is largely due to the hustle of rookie Angel Reese and vet Elizabeth Williams, who lead the league in offensive rebounds with an astounding 5 and 4.7 offensive boards per game, respectively.
The Sun, however, have an extremely strong rebounding frontcourt in Alyssa Thomas and Brionna Jones, and I don’t see them letting Chicago work them on the boards like that. The Sun are leading the league in opponent rebounding, holding other teams to just 30.3 rebounds per 40 minutes, and just 6.5 offensive rebounds per 40 minutes. I can’t see them ceding almost 10 combined offensive boards to Reese and Williams. I’m targeting Reese with this under specifically:
Best WNBA Player Prop for Sun-Sky: Angel Reese Under 7.5 Rebounds
Washington Mystics-Seattle Storm Bet
The Washington Mystics aren’t very good right now. They’re off to an 0-5 start to the season and are looking pretty shallow heading into this game: they’re still missing Brittney Sykes and will be without starting center Shakira Austin for this one. Washington is shorthanded and is playing their third road game in five days. They’re also missing their best post defender against a team that has a historic post scorer in Nneka Ogwumike.
This seems like a good “get right spot” for the Storm, with Jewell Loyd’s shot starting to fall and Ogwumike back from injury. Playing a fatigued, shorthanded, beat-down team like the Mystics is the perfect spot for Seattle to gain confidence. I’m looking for them to come out strong in the first half and am taking the first half spread.
Best WNBA Bet for Mystics-Storm: Seattle Storm 1H Spread -4.5
I also like a play on Nneka’s points prop. The Mystics do have depth in the post defensively with Aliyah Edwards and Stefanie Dolson, but Nneka has cleared this line in every game she has played this season thus far. She’s getting more touches than I expected and is converting them at whopping 62% clip. Even with that regressing toward her career field-goal percentage of 54.6%, with the volume we’re seeing from her, she should hit this over.
Best WNBA Player Prop for Mystics-Storm: Nneka Ogwumike Over 18.5 points
Indiana Fever-Las Vegas Aces Bet
Okay, let’s paint a picture. The Fever are a young team whose superstar is still making the adjustment to the rigors of the WNBA. They’re playing their seventh game in 11 days, and it’s a back-to-back on the road. Indiana is feeling good though, coming off their first win this season. But they had to fight hard to eke out that win, digging themselves out of a double-digit deficit at halftime.
The Fever also must play the Aces, the reigning champions, tonight. And the reigning champions are pissed off because they just got upset by the Mercury in spite of their stars scoring 73 combined points.
Add to all of this that Caitlin Clark has become the biggest media story in the WNBA simply by being drafted while the Aces are playing historic basketball, in the middle of a run at a three-peat.
I’m liking the Aces to come out hot tomorrow. I’m hitting their 1H team total over, 1H spread, 1st quarter spread — basically however I can get at them in this first part of the game. The Fever have the biggest letdown spot in history here.
Best WNBA Bet for Fever-Aces: Las Vegas Aces 1H Spread -8.5
Dallas Wings-Phoenix Mercury Bet
I wrote a bit last slate about the Phoenix Mercury being the most surprising team of this early WNBA season, exceeding expectations after losing star center Brittney Griner, who has been sidelined with a toe injury. Missing their star and with a new relatively unknown coach, many had the Mercury projected to struggle coming into the season. But they are 3-1, and as I mentioned in the last segment, upset the reigning champion Aces earlier this week.
New head coach Nate Thibbets has zagged without Griner, playing four-out basketball and leading the league in three point attempts while second in percentage. The Mercury are one of the most efficient offenses in the W and boast a breakout MVP candidate in Kahleah Copper.
The Wings have struggled to find the same offensive consistency, missing stars Natasha Howard and Satou Sabally and relying on heliocentric hero ball from Arike Ogunbowale. Dallas is towards the bottom of the league in both true shooting percentage and effective field goal percentage.
With where these two teams are at this point in the season, I was surprised to see this game open essentially as a pick’em slightly in Dallas’ favor with the Mercury at home. The spread seems to be drawing off of last year’s data a bit, and with Dallas’ injuries and the Mercury looking so different, it feels way off. The spread has moved to -3 at this point, but I’d honestly play the Mercury up to -5.5 or so here.
Best WNBA Bet for Wings-Mercury: Phoenix Mercury -3
