Wednesday was an absolute movie. We went a smoking-hot 4-1 our last time out to lift our record to a strong 36-30 on the season. But we’ve had a whole day since then to do our victory lap; time to lock in on today’s slate, and boy, it’s a big one. Our Friday night WNBA slate features four great matchups. Let’s dig into those and make some WNBA best bets and player prop picks.
WNBA Best Bets & Player Props Today: June 7
Indiana Fever-Washington Mystics Bet
This is a really interesting spot because both of these teams have to be pretty desperate for a win right now. The Mystics are 0-10 and are at home, having just blown a lead last night in front of their fans. There’s a lot of pressure and a lot of pride there. The Mystics absolutely do not want to leave this homestand winless.
The Fever are 2-9, which is obviously not great, but it’s a much better look than 0-10. However, there’s a level of scrutiny on the Fever that’s pretty unusual and undue for a team in the early stages of a rebuild due to the presence of Caitlin Clark. There’s a magnifying glass on them, and you can tell this team is feeling the heat of it. With the lofty (unfair) expectations placed on Indiana coming into this season, I can see them bringing a fire to this game that might match Washington’s.
I haven’t been able to put my feet squarely on either side of this one. But with the pressure on both of these teams, I’m liking this to be an absolute dog fight. This is going to be a grind-it-out, down-to-the-wire game. I spotted a really intriguing bet on FanDuel for this matchup you have to scroll to the “Margin” tab to find it. Under ‘Tri-Bet’, FanDuel is offering “either 7 points or less” at -110. Essentially, you’re getting +7.5 on either side of this spread, cashing as long as neither team wins by more than 7.
Best WNBA Bet: Tri-Bet — Either Team to Win by 7 or Less (FanDuel)
Check out our guide to WNBA player prop betting! >>
Seattle Storm-Las Vegas Aces Bet
This game has potential to be one of the best of the season with the star power featured. A’ja Wilson, Jackie Young and Kelsey Plum are on one side of the court, Jewell Loyd, Skylar Diggins-Smith, Ezi Magbegor and Nneka Ogwumike on the other. It’s a matchup I’ve been waiting for eagerly since Diggins-Smith and Ogwumike joined up with Loyd and Magbegor in the offseason.
The books have Aces favored by 8.5 at home — it’s dropped a bit from where it opened at 10. I was surprised it didn’t drop to -5.5 or so when Ogwumike was cleared to return from an eye injury for this game. With a player of Ogwumike’s magnitude available and the Aces still missing Chelsea Gray, I like the Storm to at least come within a few possessions, if not pull off the upset altogether. Worse teams than Seattle have taken a win off Vegas this season, and my modeling has this as a toss-up. The Storm’s Big Four are going to be really hard to matchup with for the shorthanded Aces. I’m taking the points on Seattle and sprinkling the moneyline.
Best WNBA Bet: Seattle Storm +8.5
From a player props perspective, books are overvaluing Plum, struggling to adapt to the on-ball touches Plum has been ceding to Young this season. FanDuel has Plum’s points at 19.5 and her assists at 5.5, both lines that feel based on her previous two seasons’ production and not as much her role this season. My modeling puts Plum at 17.6 points and 4.8 assists in this matchup. FanDuel has her combined points and assists prop at 24.5; she’s been under that in four of seven this season.
Best WNBA Player Prop: Kelsey Plum Under 24.5 Points + Assists (FanDuel)
Dallas Wings-Los Angeles Sparks Bet
Instead of going into the sides in this game, I want to just share a really fun player prop spot here.
A common, even cliche, criticism of Arike Ogunbowale’s game is that, although she can absolutely score the lights out some games, she’s an inconsistent and inefficient offensive piece from a broader, game-to-game perspective. She’s not a player who tends to get hot for a run of games; she tends to explode and regress pretty quickly.
When I dug further into the data to see if it supports this trend, I was shocked by what I saw.
Going back all the way to 2020, Ogunbowale is under 25.5 points in 25 of 27 games after going over 25.5 points in the previous game. She’s only had two pairs of consecutive games with 26-plus points since the second year of her career. This trend goes all the way back to the WNBA Quarantine ‘Wubble’ in Bradenton, Fla. It runs deep.
The one thing that’s scary about this under is, of course, Ogunbowale’s volume. Ogunbowale leads the league in field goal attempts (23.3), but I’m trusting this trend. After all, she had 30 field goal attempts against the Sparks last time out and only had 20 points in that game. That was the game after she dropped 40 on the Mercury.
Fresh off Ogunbowale’s 31-point outing against the Aces, I’m betting on inconsistency.
Best WNBA Player Prop: Arike Ogunbowale Under 25.5 Points
Minnesota Lynx-Phoenix Mercury Bet
When these two teams last met at Target Center, the Lynx blew out the Mercury 95-71. The Lynx pulled out an absolutely dominant performance on both ends, flipping the script on the 3-point-happy Mercury by suppressing their 3-point attempts and letting a 3-point barrage rain down on them on the other end. The books opened this one at just -2.5, which I absolutely smashed at the time. Homecourt is obviously not enough to account for a 20-point difference from the last time these two met. The Lynx are one of the best teams in the league, and the Mercury have looked awful in recent goings without Brittney Griner and Rebecca Allen.
With Griner and Allen questionable for this game and this spread now sitting at -5.5, I’m hesitant to recommend hitting the Lynx spread until we know the status of these Merc players. I still like the Lynx to cover the original spread if you got it there, and I like them to cover up to -7.5 if Griner and Allen don’t play.
Keep an eye on the news around those players and try to get a jump on the books when lineups drop. If the Mercury have Griner and Allen available and the line moves back in response, I will play the Lynx at -3.5 or better. If they’re ruled out, I would play this up to -7.5.
Best WNBA Bet: Minnesota Lynx Spread
I’ve been backing Kayla McBride in various player props all season, and so far she’s been making it worth my while. I’ve previously spoken about the Mercury’s weak perimeter defense, their infectious 3-point shooting and their fast pace all contributing to above-average offensive production for their opponents. I’m running back two props I played for McBride last time these two teams met: Her assists and 3’s. She’s over her assists line in seven of nine, and the 3’s in five of nine.
Best WNBA Player Props: Kayla McBride Over 2.5 3’s, Over 3.5 Assists
