We had another profitable day off our WNBA Best Bets yesterday, winning 3 of our 5 bets on the three game slate to bring us to 25-19 on the season so far. We have another slate of three games tonight, and once again, it’s unfortunately three overlapping games. Let’s find some value and mentally prepare ourselves to be sweating multiple bets across multiple games at the same time.
We have two games tipping off simultaneously at 7 eastern–the Atlanta Dream will visit the Washington Mystics in a double revenge game for Tina Charles (demanded her way off the Mystics) and Rhyne Howard (Mystics GM Mike Thibault passed on taking her in the 2022 draft). The Phoenix Mercury, plagued by the injury bug, are in a bit of a skid right now as they head to Brooklyn to take on the New York Liberty in what could be a brutal second half to a back-to-back. Tipping off halfway between these two games, the Minnesota Lynx host the Las Vegas Aces in what should be a fun test for both teams after the surging Lynx passed the reigning champions in ESPN’s power rankings this week.
I have a few WNBA Best Bets for two of these games, with the Dream/Mystics game overall looking like a stayaway for me. Let’s win some bets.
WNBA Best Bets Today
Phoenix Mercury @ New York Liberty
The Phoenix Mercury look awful right now, having sustained an injury to Rebecca Allen (concussion) in addition to their existing injury to star Brittney Griner (toe). Last time out yesterday, we faded the Mercury with the Connecticut Sun, who beat them 70-47, with Phoenix having the worse three point shooting outing of any team in WNBA history, making 1 of the 27 threes they attempted.
Obviously, shooting variance will swing back the Mercury’s way some in this game. But on the second half of a back-to-back, and with the line-up featuring some veterans, especially Diana Taurasi, I’m called to lay the points again and fade the Mercury with the Liberty, who are also in a bounce-back spot after dropping consecutive games to the Lynx and the Sky. I’m looking to the Liberty laying the beat-down on the Mercury to re-establish their rhythm and confidence.
New York center Jonquel Jones is in particular need of a bounce-back, coming off two successive games where foul trouble limited her. Jones played under 30 mins in each of these last two games with 5 fouls in both, leading to low rebounding and scoring numbers in both losses for the former MVP. With the Mercury drawing the fourth-fewest opponent fouls in the league, and allowing the second most opponent rebounds, I love this spot for a get-right game for JJ. The Mercury front court is incredibly small right now, with Sophie Cunningham filling in as a power forward and Natasha Mack at center.
Jonquel Jones’ rebounding prop is at 7.5 juiced to the over on FanDuel at the time of this writing, she’s cleared that line in every game this season where she hasn’t had foul trouble. I’d play that up to 8.5 and sprinkle the double-double prop at +175 or better.
Best Bet: New York Liberty -14.5 or better
Best Player Prop: Jonquel Jones over 7.5 rebounds
Las Vegas Aces @ Minnesota Lynx
After being horribly underestimated by sportsbooks coming into the season, the Minnesota Lynx have solidified themselves as one of the best teams in the league and a genuine contender. They’re currently the second team in ESPN’s power rankings, and yet they somehow haven’t been the favorites in a single game this season.
That’s an incredible thing to be able to say about a team that’s 4-1, but it speaks to the strength of schedule that the Minnesota Lynx have succeeded in spite of, with wins over superstar squads like the Seattle Storm and New York Liberty, and a near-win in overtime against the undefeated Connecticut Sun. It goes without saying that this team is undefeated against the spread, and when this opened at 6.5, the spread was my favorite way to bet on the Lynx here.
With the spread now closer to 4 at most major books, the value seems about gone for me–though I’d look out for it to be bet up to 5 or higher again closer to tip, hit it there if it does.
In lieu of the spread, I’m recommending betting on the elite, extremely disruptive defensive scheme concocted by Lynx head coach Cheryl Reeve. The Lynx are the W’s #1 defensive team by defensive rating, and are allowing the fewest assists per 40 minutes in the league. With the Aces’ usual point guard, Chelsea Gray, out of commission, the Lynx will look to complicate things for the Aces’ remaining playmakers. I’m splitting a bet between the under on Jackie Young’s assists at 6.5 and Kelsey Plum’s assists at 5.5.
Best Player Props: Kelsey Plum under 5.5 assists, Jackie Young under 6.5 assists
