Women’s basketball analyst Dani Bar-Lavi back for the latest installment of our WNBA best bets series. After going 2-1 on plays for the Friday night slate, I improved to 10-4 on the season thus far on my WNBA best bets here on OddsShopper. With a full day of WNBA basketball ahead of us, and plenty of offerings on the books, I like us to continue our hot streak and have a very profitable Saturday. We’ve got several WNBA player props that have value along with one bet against the spread.
There are four games on the WNBA schedule today: Our morning game sees the Indiana Fever travelling to Brooklyn for an instant rematch against the New York Liberty, who spoiled their home opener Thursday, blowing them out 102-66. Then, the Las Vegas Aces host the Los Angeles Sparks in what the books have projected as a total beatdown, with the Aces having opened as a -21.5 point favorites. Our evening games open with another ‘instant rematch’, with the Chicago Sky and Dallas Wings on the second half of a two-game mini-series in Arlington, Texas. Finally, the Phoenix Mercury host the Atlanta Dream in a battle of two teams solidly in the league’s middle class. I dug into each of these matchups and found some solid betting angles for each of them, let’s start with the matinee game:
WNBA Best Bets & Player Props Today: Saturday, May 18
Indiana Fever-New York Liberty Bet
When these two teams played earlier in the week, I wrote about how I expected Breanna Stewart to upstage Caitlin Clark in her home debut, and boy did that prediction come true: Stewart had a 31 point masterclass against Indiana, helping lead her team to the blowout win, whereas the dogged defensive efforts of Betnijah Laney-Hamilton held Clark to single-digit scoring in a game for the first time since her freshman year of college.
In this rematch, I’m going back for a second helping of Stew by running back Breanna Stewart over 20.5 points. I was surprised to see books running 20.5 for her again after she dropped 30-plus on Thursday, books seem to be still over-adjusting to when Stewart had just 8 points on opening day.
Stewart is averaging 29.4 points per game against Indiana in her time as a member of the New York Liberty, and she has recorded 30 or more points in 3 of her last 5 outings against the Fever. It seems that the Fever’s young stud frontcourt of Aliyah Boston and NaLyssa Smith has serious issues containing an offensive force like Stewart. Run this one back, and hit the alts again too: 25+, 30+, 35+, and 40+, as high as you can get.
Best WNBA Bet for Indiana Fever-New York Liberty: Breanna Stewart over 20.5 points
Los Angeles Sparks-Las Vegas Aces Bet
I really, really hate to ever bet against the Aces, ever. I especially hate to fade the Aces backing a team-in-transition like the Sparks, who are towards the bottom of most experts’ power rankings heading into the season in the wake of the departure of Nneka Ogwumike, who was the last standing member of their 2010’s Big Three. However, in spite of all that, here we are. I’m taking the points and recommending we hit Los Angeles +19.5. It’s just too long, we have to.
The Sparks did look really good for much of their season opener against the Atlanta Dream. Despite losing the game by double-digits ultimately, their starting unit put up a great effort, winning much of their minutes behind a triple double from Layshia Clarendon and a 20 point 14 rebounds outing from Dearica Hamby. The Aces, however, looked a bit out of sorts in their opening game against Phoenix. I picked the Aces to cover their 15-point spread against the Mercury, figuring they would roll Phoenix by dominating the paint in the absence of Brittney Griner.
After building a fifteen-point lead in the first quarter, the Aces nearly gave up their lead headed into the half and struggled to pull away from Phoenix for the rest of the game. The Aces only ended up beating the Mercury by nine after losing the final three quarters of the game by six. They really missed starting point guard Chelsea Gray out there, and they seemed to have trouble sustaining four quarters of effort without her leadership. I don’t think the Aces should be laying 20 points on anyone right now without Gray. I’m going to take the points here and look for a live middle opportunity if one presents itself.
Best WNBA Bet for Los Angeles Sparks-Las Vegas Aces: Los Angeles Sparks +19.5
Sign up with BetMGM and get your first WNBA player prop bet paid back up to $1,500 if it loses! >>
Chicago Sky-Dallas Wings Bet
For parts of these teams’ first matchup, it looked as though the Chicago Sky were going to ruin the Wings’ home opener. The game was tied heading into the fourth, with some heroics from Arike Ogunbowale helping the Wings create separation and ultimately win the game by nine. The Wings will look to Arike to continue these heroics heading into Game 2, as they lost frontcourt start Natasha Howard to a foot injury that will have her sidelined for the coming weeks. Last season, per pbpstats.com, Ogunbowale scored 5.19 more points per 100 possessions when not sharing the floor with Howard.
The Wings were already a bit shorthanded with Satou Sabally already injured, so it’s going to be on Ogunbowale to do what she does best: Play absolute heliocentric basketball and put up a ton of points. Add to this edge the friendly rivalry I mentioned last game between Ogunbowale and her college roommate and former teammate, Marina Mabrey of the Sky, and I think we have a recipe for another big scoring outing.
I’m also highlighting Wings center Teaira McCowan, who has already seen her role expand heading into this season in the absence of Sabally. She should get even more opportunity now with Howard sidelined. McCowan scores on putbacks a ton, so her points and rebounds prop at 25.5 should be the best way to get at this. Don’t leave these WNBA player props off your card.
Best WNBA Bet for Chicago Sky-Dallas Wings: Arike Ogunbowale over 22.5 points AND Teaira McCowan over 25.5 points + rebounds
Atlanta Dream @ Phoenix Mercury
The Phoenix Mercury remain without star center Brittney Griner, who is sidelined with a broken toe. The Mercury gave up their center depth piece (Brianna Turner) to the Sky in the Kahleah Copper trade, and as such, they’ve been forced to go to young centers Morgan Bertsch and Natasha Mack to fill the five. In their season opener, A’ja Wilson made life extremely difficult for these young posts, dropping 30 points, 13 rebounds, and 5 assists on them.
For the time being, I’m going to continue to back dominant centers against the Mercury, who are so, so small without Griner. The Dream added Tina Charles in the offseason, and the 2012 MVP wasted no time getting back to work after missing the 2023 season as an unsigned free agent. Charles scored 21 points and grabbed 14 rebounds against the Sparks, who, similarly to the Mercury, don’t currently have a traditional defensive five.
If Charles was able to go off like that against Dearica Hamby, I shudder to think of what she’s going to do to these young Mercury posts. With her points line still rather low, Charles’ scoring over is a smash here, but play her rebounds as well. I’m backing her to continue her revenge tour against weak defense today.
Best WNBA Bet for Atlanta Dream-Phoenix Mercury: Tina Charles over 12.5 points and over 7.5 rebounds
