After a brief hiatus, we are back with WNBA Best Bets here on OddsShopper! We left off on a hot streak, going 3-1 on my last article to improve to 20-6 over my last 26 bets and 52-35 on the full season. I’m ready to keep cooking today with just one game on the WNBA slate: The Commissioner’s Cup Championship! It should be a really great game between the two top teams in net rating, the Minnesota Lynx and New York Liberty, squaring off for the in-season crown.
In addition to the Commissioners Cup title, the winning squad will split a pool of prize money: $500,000 dollars is USD in addition to $120,000 in crypto-currency courtesy of the event’s sponsor, Coinbase. But the players won’t be the only ones cashing in tonight. With just one game on the slate, I’ve dug extra deep into this matchup and some of the special offerings from books for this game. Let’s get into the best WNBA bets and player props today for the Commissioner’s Cup Championship.
Check out our guide to WNBA player prop betting! >>
WNBA Best Bets & Player Props Today: June 25
Best WNBA Bet Today
If you’ve read this column before, or if you’ve listened to my podcast Bet She Wins, or if you follow me on Twitter, it should come as little surprise to you that I’m backing the Lynx against the spread in this game. I have been in love with this team going all the way back to the preseason, and it’s paid off: Minnesota is 12-4 against the spread. On the road, the team is 5-1. As underdogs, it’s 6-1. Minnesota has been consistently elite despite a pretty tough strength of schedule. It is the league’s best team by net rating and has had convincing wins against almost every other team in the WNBA’s elite class: The Storm, Aces, Mercury and Liberty themselves in their last matchup.
While the Liberty are beginning to round into form, it still feels like they’re prone to lapses in effort. Head coach Sandy Brondello has made jokes about New York getting bored in second quarters — the Lynx aren’t a team you can afford to take a quarter off against; they will smell blood in the water and run away with this game. I would take a look at the second quarter moneyline or spread for Minnesota and consider live betting them at the end of the first quarter.
The line also seems to not be adjusted to the fact that the Liberty don’t have true homecourt advantage in this game. Due to the Commissioner’s Cup Championship being booked the day before the NBA Draft, the Liberty don’t have access to Barclays Center. The game has been exiled to UBS Arena in Long Island. Of course, Long Island is still firmly Liberty country, but I’m not sure the usual crowd is going to be able to make the commute out the island for this. The Long Islanders that do turn up won’t be bringing the same energy or presence as the Liberty’s usual Brooklyn crowds, and that takes away a potential edge for the Liberty.
While I would take the Lynx at +5.5, it’s worth waiting on updates on the statuses of Betnijah Laney-Hamilton and Courtney Vandersloot for the Liberty. The line will move toward New York if one or both of these players are announced as available. If Vandersloot starts, the Lynx will be able to take advantage of her on the defensive end. If we can get Lynx +6.5 or +7.5 in that situation, I’d love that spot for them.
Best WNBA Bet: Minnesota Lynx +5.5 and Second Quarter Moneyline
Best WNBA Player Props
Minnesota Lynx head coach Cheryl Reeve has been placing a clear emphasis in recent games on getting Bridget Carleton more looks from deep. Carleton has attempted four or more 3’s in six of her last seven games, hitting multiple 3’s in five of those seven games. I really like Carleton to get some great looks from deep in this game. Since she is a tertiary scoring option for the Lynx, I see the Liberty defense sagging off Carleton to give more attention to Kayla McBride and Napheesa Collier. Carleton will likely draw coverage from Sabrina Ionescu, Leonie Fiebich and Vandersloot if she plays, great matchups for her to get cooking from long range. This prop is at 1.5 at DraftKings juiced -130 to the over, but my model has this closer to -230.
Best Minnesota Lynx Player Prop: Bridget Carleton Over 1.5 3’s (-130, DraftKings)
As a corollary to the above play, there’s a Player Prop Special being offered for this game that is really fun and has great value. Under “Player Props Featured” in the “Popular” tab for this game, FanDuel is offering any player to record at least six made 3’s at +650. Ionescu had six 3’s a few games ago against the Sparks. McBride has had at least six 3’s twice this season, both in the month of June — I could easily see a player with the leadership qualities of McBride stepping up and locking in to get some cash for her younger teammates on smaller contracts. Six 3’s would be a new career high for Carleton, but she had five a few games ago against the Aces and has been shooting the lights out; it’s not outside the realm of possibility for her. I would have this line in the low +500s.
Best Special Player Prop: Any Player to Record 6+ Made 3’s (+650, FanDuel)
As I alluded to earlier, Vandersloot is questionable for this game, having been away from the team dealing with the passing of her mother Jan in early June. During Vandersloot’s absence, her fellow starters have all stepped up their playmaking. Ionescu has led the way, averaging 8.4 assists during this stretch, but Jonquel Jones, Breanna Stewart and Laney-Hamilton have all been flashing their playmaking as well, with each of them averaging above four assists per game.
If Vandersloot returns to the starting lineup for this game, I like assist unders across the board for Ionescu, Stewart, Jones and Laney-Hamilton. I would bet each and hope we get the under on at least three of the four, if not all four of them. I would turn on Tweet notifications for your favorite Liberty beat writer (mine is @MylesEhrlich) now and pay close attention. Be ready to pull the trigger on these unders if Vandersloot is cleared to return to the starting lineup.
Best New York Liberty Player Props: Sabrina Ionescu Under 6.5 Assists, Jonquel Jones Under 3.5 Assists, Breanna Stewart Under 3.5 Assists, Betnijah Laney-Hamilton Under 4.5 Assists
