Who made more cash off the Commissioner’s Cup Final, us or the Minnesota Lynx? Probably the Lynx, who went home with the Cup’s prize money, but we cleaned up pretty well! We hit an astounding seven of the eight bets I outlined in my best bets piece for the game earlier this week. We’ve been on quite the run and now are looking at a 59-36 record on the season on our WNBA records here on OddsShopper. As we come out of the Commissioner’s Cup break and back into regular season play, we have a packed slate today with four games on the schedule, including an early Camp Day game. Let’s get into the best WNBA bets and player props today for Thursday, June 27.
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WNBA Best Bets & Player Props Today: June 27
The Minnesota Lynx get little rest coming off their Commissioner’s Cup victory, as they visit the Dallas Wings in said camp day game, which tips off at noon CT. The Wings have dropped 11 straight games; can they perhaps take advantage of the quick turnaround to steal a win from Minnesota? Later on, at 6 p.m. CT, we see the first-ever matchup between A’ja Wilson and Angel Reese, with the Chicago Sky playing host to the Las Vegas Aces. At the same time, the Connecticut Sun take on the Washington Mystics, who have picked up some wins despite continuing to be plagued by injury. The slate closes out with the Indiana Fever visiting the Seattle Storm, with a very literal “old guard versus new guard” matchup in Jewell Loyd versus Caitlin Clark.
I lean towards the favorite in each of these matchups, but each of them is rightfully favored by close to double digits. This is a bit of a square move — not usually my style — but I’m just going to keep it simple in terms of sides for this slate and hit a moneyline parlay with the Lynx, Aces, Sun and Storm. That parlay should get you close to even money, if not even slightly plus money. These are four of the best teams in the league taking on two teams that have been awful (Washington and Dallas) and two teams that have looked relatively good (Chicago and Indiana) but are still not remotely in the same breath as their opponents. Don’t overthink it: Favorites sweep.
Best WNBA Bets: Parlay Lynx, Aces, Sun and Storm Moneylines
Best WNBA Player Props Today
For our afternoon game, I’m looking at a fade that’s a little scary, all things considered. The Wings continue to miss Satou Sabally to injury, with Maddy Siegrist out right now as well and Natasha Howard ruled out for tomorrow’s game as well. That’s a lot of responsibility and a lot of usage on the shoulders of one Arike Ogunbowale. However, given Ogunbowale’s history in this matchup, I need to take her under here. Cheryl Reeve and the Lynx have had Ogunbowale’s number since she stepped foot in the league. The market is hanging Ogunbowale at 21.5 points, a line she’s only cleared against Minnesota twice in 16 matchups going all the way back to her rookie season. I’m not sure what Ogunbowale’s specific kryptonite is, but I know Reeve has it. The Lynx defense, arguably the league’s best, is going to be fully keyed in on stopping Ogunbowale in the absence of some of her other offensively productive teammates.
Minnesota allows the fewest opponent assists in the league, so I’m going to play under points + assists here to work in that angle as well.
Best WNBA Player Prop: Arike Ogunbowale Under 25.5 Points + Assists
I’m in a bit of a “wait and see” phase for Aces player props with Chelsea Gray still freshly back, so I’m instead going to set my eyes on the other side of this matchup. Chennedy Carter has been the story of the season for the Sky, opening as one of the league’s best scorers off the bench before recently joining the Sky’s starting lineup. In Carter’s three games since joining Chicago’s starting five, she’s scored 18, 19 and 23 points, putting on quite a show and living up to her nickname “Hollywood.”
Books opened Carter at 15.5 points for this game, seemingly shading down a bit with the matchup against the Aces, but it’s a bit of an overcorrection considering Carter’s offensive production. Carter is third in the league in points per possession this season, behind only Wilson and Kahleah Copper in per-possession scoring. It is likely Carter will draw Kelsey Plum defensively as well given position and size, and I can easily see her cooking Plum or the two of them feeding off each other’s energy as scorers and competitors.
Best WNBA Player Prop: Chennedy Carter Over 16.5 Points
DeWanna Bonner went into the Commissioner’s Cup game in a bit of a scoring slump, her average having plummeted to 16.3 points per game over the month of June after opening the season with six straight games of 20 points or more. Her scoring prop is 16.5, a line she’s only gone over once in her last seven games. It’s a bit scary, but I have to buy low here.
Bonner is an older player in this league, and her game really suffers when she hasn’t had ample time to rest and recover between games. In 2023, Bonner’s points per game were dramatically correlated with rest, rising from 15.1 in games off one day of rest to 18.9 in games off two days’ rest. The Sun played seven games in 14 days heading into the Commissioner’s Cup break — not the most grueling stretch in the WNBA this season by any means but still a lot for a player as sensitive to this as Bonner is.
Coming back from almost a week off and guarded by a below-average perimeter defense from the Mystics, I like a big bounce back here from Bonner.
Best WNBA Player Prop: DeWanna Bonner Over 16.5 Points
