It’s time to continue our best WNBA bets today series by giving our Liberty-Fever predictions while also showcasing a bonkers Breanna Stewart prop.
After being thrown straight into the fire in her first WNBA game, being blown out by the Connecticut Sun on the road, Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever return to Indianapolis to try to right the ship in their home opener. Unfortunately for the Fever, they host one of the league’s upper crust, as the superstar laden New York Liberty come to town.
The Liberty are coming off a bit of a rough one themselves, having barely eked out a win opening day on the road against the Washington Mystics, who have been power-ranking basement-dwellers pretty much across the board heading into the season.
WNBA Bets Today – Liberty-Fever Predictions
Heading into this match-up, I’m looking to the Liberty’s established stars to crash Caitlin Clark’s home debut. Overall, one of my slants this season has been that the public is too high on Clark, and the Fever by extension. We saw the Fever struggle against a more veteran-heavy, elite team in Connecticut last game, and I like that trend to continue today against the Liberty.
The Liberty present some match-up nightmares for the Fever, with Jonquel Jones and Breanna Stewart covering Aliyah Boston and NaLyssa Smith, and elite perimeter defender Betnijah Laney likely to pick up the assignment on Caitlin.
I hammered Liberty -4.5 when these lines first opened a few weeks ago, but I think there’s still value enough for a single-unit play on the Liberty at -6.5 or better.
Liberty-Fever Predictions – Best WNBA Bets Today (SPREAD): New York Liberty -6.5
WNBA Player Props
On the player prop front, my projections have New York’s frontcourt stars Jonquel Jones and Breanna Stewart upstaging Clark in front of her fans. I like this as a welcome to the league moment for Caitlin. JJ and Stewie, both former MVPs, laying the smackdown on the young upstarts in Clark, Boston, and Smith has a certain narrative quality that just fits.
For Jones, I see this season as her return-to-form year. Having struggled a bit with nagging injuries over the last two seasons, Jones began to look like herself in the WNBA playoffs last season. JJ averaged 16.8 points and 11.6 rebounds per game in the playoffs, up from 11.3 points and 8.6 rebounds per game in the 2023 regular season.
Jones looked ready to pick up where she left off in the season opener, dropping 25 points. While lines have adjusted up some, I’m riding Jones’ scoring until the wheels fall off. I like her rebounding prop tonight too in what should be a fast paced game.
Take the ladder up on both of these props too on FanDuel, hitting alt on 20+ Points and Top Points Scorer, as well as 12+ Rebounds.
Jonquel Jones Best Player Props: Jonquel Jones over 14.5 points and 9.5 rebounds (DraftKings)
Breanna Stewart Prop
Breanna Stewart had quite the opposite opening night outing compared to her frontcourt co-star, with just 8 points on 3-9 shooting against the Mystics. Stewart’s points prop has dropped a bit in response to this poor outing, from 23.5 to 20.5. This presents the perfect opportunity to bet on one of Stewie’s signature bounce-back games.
This trend is strong: Last season, in the regular season and playoffs combined, Breanna Stewart scored over 20.5 points in 8 of the 10 games following performance where she had recorded less than 15 points. Stewart is prone to the occasional underwhelming scoring outing, but she tends to follow up those games pridefully with a scorcher in the next one.
A great example of this trend was her first two games of last season, also against the Mystics and then the Fever. Stewart struggled against Washington last season too, scoring 10 points. But she bounced back hard in her next game against Indiana, dropping a career high 45 points against the Fever.
Let’s bet on history repeating itself today. Hit Stewart to exceed 20.5 points, and then like with Jonquel, let’s take the ladder. I’m sprinkling a bit all around on 25+, 30+, 35+, and 40+ points.
Breanna Stewart Best Player Prop: Over 20.5 Points (FanDuel)
