After a month off from women’s basketball that felt like an eternity, WNBA season is just one day away. I’m so psyched for what should be an electrifying season of W basketball. From a betting perspective, though, this is the last call for season-long bets and WNBA futures.
Last week, I wrote up some season-long player props, including one for Caitlin Clark and a 5-pick flex entry for PrizePicks/Underdog. If you didn’t lock those in last week, I’ll give you a little pause to do so now.
Okay, great. Today, I’m going to dive into two mispriced team win totals still available on the books here in the eleventh hour. I think the market is massively undervaluing these two teams, arguably the two most improved teams in the WNBA.
WNBA Futures – WNBA Win Totals
Seattle Storm
Last season, following Sue Bird’s retirement and Breanna Stewart’s free agency exit, the Seattle Storm had their worst finish since 2015. The Storm won just 11 games despite the heroic efforts of last-star-standing Jewell Loyd, who led the league in scoring.
This season, Loyd returns to the Storm as the fulcrum of a new Big 3. The Storm cleaned up in the off-season, signing former MVP Nneka Ogwumike and elite combo guard Skylar Diggins-Smith, who seems primed to set the WNBA ablaze on a revenge tour after missing the 2023 season.
With Seattle’s season win total at 24.5 at most books, the market hasn’t adjusted far enough to react to the magnitude of these free agency additions–I personally have the Storm finishing somewhere just under 30 wins.
Best Bet: Seattle Storm 25+ Wins (-105, FanDuel)
Minnesota Lynx
This one’s an absolute hammer for me. The market is shockingly low on the Minnesota Lynx across the board, with their win total still as low as 16.5 on ESPNBet and DraftKings and their odds to make the playoffs as low as -170 on Caesars.
The Lynx went 19-21 last season, making the playoffs as the 6th seed overall in the league. They have one of the most accomplished coaches in WNBA history in Cheryl Reeve, and a bonafide superstar in Napheesa Collier, who finished fourth in MVP voting last season.
The Lynx return most of their core from last season, and added some really solid pieces in the off-season such as Natisha Hiedemann, Courtney Williams, and Alanna Smith. Minnesota will miss playmaking forward, Jessica Shepard, this season, but the addition of Smith as another versatile post player will help stem that loss.
Overall I see little reason to expect a backslide from this team, I have them winning at least as many games as they did last season, if not more. The best way to back the Lynx at this juncture is their team win total. Hammer it at ESPN or DraftKings.
Best Bet: Minnesota Lynx over 16.5 wins (-130, ESPNBet or DraftKings)
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