Looking for the best WNBA player props today? It’s time to continue our WNBA bets today series by looking at an Ariel Atkins prop and other solid plays for Friday.
At the beginning of my last column, I said I was looking for a bounce back, and bounce back we did! We went a super hot 3-1 on our WNBA Best Bets yesterday, improving to 28-23 on the season. We have a packed four game Friday night slate to keep it rolling, and looking over the offerings, I’m seeing a lot of value across the board.
We have another unfortunately squished WNBA slate tonight, with three of our four games tipping off all at 7:30pm EST, and just one game following them up at 9:30. The Las Vegas Aces visit Atlanta to take on the Dream, looking to keep their newly re-established run of dominance going coming off two straight double digit wins.
The Dallas Wings will try to avoid flying to close to the Sun as they visit Connecticut to take on the league’s sole remaining undefeated team. Meanwhile, on the other end of the standings, the winless Washington Mystics are in Brooklyn to take on the New York Liberty. For our night cap, the Minnesota Lynx play host to the Phoenix Mercury, with a duel of burgeoning MVP candidates in Kahleah Copper and Napheesa Collier.
I have a Best WNBA Bet for each of these games, let’s eat.
Editor’s note: Before we get into our Ariel Atkins prop and other WNBA bets today, you can find out exactly how you should approach WNBA player props here.
WNBA Player Props & Bets Today
Las Vegas Aces @ Atlanta Dream
The Aces opened the season 0-3 against the spread, dropping a home game outright to the Phoenix Mercury in a wild upset. Since the Mercury loss, however, the Aces have turned it around, covering their spread in their last two games, including a 14 point win against the Minnesota Lynx, who had been undefeated against the spread to that point.
It seems the upset lit a fire for the Aces, and it seems that they’re adjusting to not having Chelsea Gray, who has yet to make her season appearance with a foot injury. Jackie Young has been particularly key to the Aces adjusting to life without their Point Gawd. Young has stepped into the starting point guard role, sliding over from the 3, where she’s played most of her professional career. She’s seamlessly become one of the best points in the WNBA this season, averaging a league-leading 8.2 assists per game while scoring 21.8 points per game and consistently guarding the other team’s best perimeter players.
Overall, the Aces match-up super well with the Dream, with Tina Charles and Cheyenne Parker coming up against the league’s number one post defensive tandem in A’ja Wilson and Kiah Stokes. Rhyne Howard will have the aforementioned Jackie Young to contend with on both ends, while Allisha Gray, who’s listed as questionable and may not play, will be picked up by elite wing defender Alysha Clark if she does suit up.
I’m laying the points with Vegas here, they should comfortably win this by double digits. It seems that slines-makers have just adjusted to the Aces early season struggles in time for them to get over them, let’s ride that wave. Watch for news about Allisha Gray, too. I like this spread regardless of if she plays, but if she’s out, I’m going to be adding to this play and looking at some alts.
Best WNBA Bet Today: Las Vegas Aces -8.5
Dallas Wings @ Connecticut Sun
This is a game where the Dallas Wings are really going to miss Natasha Howard and Satou Sabally, who are both sidelined with injuries right now. Dallas could really use some frontcourt two-way star power going against the likes of Alyssa Thomas and Brionna Jones in the front court.
I have a feeling that Teaira McCowan is going to struggle with the attention she’ll get in this match-up without Sabally and Howard, with the Sun holding opponents to the fewest rebounds per game and the fourth fewest points in the paint in the league. I don’t see a superhero game from Arike Ogunbowale in this match-up either, with Arike having to contend with coverage from the likes of DiJonai Carrington and DeWanna Bonner, two excellent perimeter defenders.
Dallas really just needs to get healthy, but for now, they simply do not have enough offensive options to deal with the absolute smorgasbord of defensive players Stephanie White has on her squad in Connecticut, who lead the league in defensive rating. I’m laying the points with the Sun, and fading Arike’s scoring to go with it.
Best WNBA Bet: Connecticut Sun -8.5
Best WNBA Player Prop Today: Arike Ogunbowale under 24.5 points
Washington Mystics @ New York Liberty (Ariel Atkins Prop)
The spread for this game is at -15.5, and I’ve really struggled with it. On one hand, the Mystics are straight up bad right now. They’re winless and they have the worst offensive rating in the league, and the second worst net rating. The Liberty are a superstar laden squad with the third best net rating in the league. That makes me want to lay the points with the Liberty. New York, however, is simply incapable of covering a spread.
They’re 1-6 against the spread this season and have been upset outright in two of their last three games. That makes me want to take the points with the Mystics, but then I get worried about the Liberty laying the beatdown on Washington in a get-right blowout game.
All that is to say, I’m laying off the spread in this one. Instead, I’m going to take the under on Ariel Atkins points. Atkins is a player I’ve looked to to step up with the Mystics’ offensive options depleted, but she’s had a bit of trouble getting her shot to fall consistently. In fact, I’ve noticed an interesting pattern with Atkins’ scoring:
This season, she’s alternating having games with 15+ points and games with single digit scoring every other game over her first seven this season. Atkins’ line is right at 14.5, and she had 21 points in the last outing. With Ariel Atkins likely to draw Betnijah Laney, maybe the best perimeter defender in the league, I like this pattern to hold tomorrow against the Liberty.
Best WNBA Player Prop Today: Ariel Atkins under 14.5 points
Phoenix Mercury @ Minnesota Lynx
This is probably my match-up of the night in terms of a game to watch. As I mentioned in the intro, this game features an MVP candidate match-up between Kahleah Copper and Napheesa Collier, who are both playing the best basketball of their lives right now. It’s also a match-up of two teams with ultra-modern constructions, with neither of these teams having super traditional frontcourts right now, the Lynx by design and the Mercury out of necessity with injury to Brittney Griner.
These are also both teams that have emphasized three-point shooting coming into this season, with the Mercury leading the league in three point attempts while the Lynx lead the league in three-point percentage. The Mercury’s three point shooting has been infectious, and their perimeter defense lacking, allowing opponents the most three-point attempts (and third most makes) per game.
The Mercury will continue to be without 3-and-D wing Rebecca Allen in this game, exacerbating their lack of depth and perimeter game. The Lynx, unlike Phoenix, pair their three-point shooting with elite perimeter defense, holding opponents to the fewest three point attempts in the league and the second lowest three point percentage in the league.
The Mercury are going to come into this one thinking the can win in a shoot out and, between the Lynx’s own three point shooting and their perimeter defense, it’s not going to go well for Phoenix. I’m hitting Lynx -7.5, and taking Kayla McBride to make 3+ threes. McBride is Minnesota’s best three point shooter, and I love this spot for her to get a ton of attempts with weak coverage on her.
Best WNBA Bet: Minnesota Lynx -7.5
Best WNBA Player Prop: Kayla McBride 3+ threes (-210, FanDuel)
