t’s time to continue our best WNBA predictions today series by focusing on Aliyah Boston and Caitlin Clark. First, some catching up.
It’s a new week in the W, with a three game Tuesday slate filled with great matchups and juicy value. We went out on a high note last week, going 4-2 on the Saturday slate to improve to 22-17 on the year. Let’s keep it rolling.
Today’s slate is a bit compressed, with two games tipping off at 7pm eastern and another tipping around halftime of those at 8pm. The Connecticut Sun, the sole remaining undefeated team in the WNBA, host the Phoenix Mercury, who have cooled a bit after a red-hot start. Simultaneously, the Indiana Fever are at home for a rematch against the only team they’ve beaten so far this year, the Los Angeles Sparks. And in every weather pun fan’s favorite matchup, the Seattle Storm are in Skytown to take on Chicago.
I’ve got a best bet or two for each of these games. Let’s dig in.
WNBA Predictions Today
Phoenix Mercury @ Connecticut Sun
The Phoenix Mercury will be without Rebecca Allen (concussion) and possibly Sug Sutton (ankle), in addition to Brittney Griner (toe) who has yet to make her season debut. The Mercury have had an impressive start to the season sans Griner, opening the season 3-2 including a road upset of the sometimes-seemingly-unbeatable Las Vegas Aces. However, with injuries stacking and depth looking shallow, this is a particularly bad spot for Phoenix. The Mercury looked significantly impacted by losing Allen after she suffered a head injury in their 107-92 loss to Dallas Wings on Saturday.
Even apart from the injury concerns, Phoenix matches up pretty poorly with the Sun. Head coach Nate Tibbets’ offensive system relies heavily on the three-ball, and the Sun have one of the best perimeter defenses in the league, allowing the third fewest three point attempts per 40 minutes. I also anticipate the Mercury struggling to contain the post tandem of Alyssa Thomas and Brionna Jones given their lack of size and post presence, an issue exacerbated by the injury to Allen, who’s filling in as a power forward on this ultra-small roster. I’m laying the points with the Sun here.
Best WNBA Predictions Today: Connecticut Sun -7.5
The Mercury’s three-point shooting rate has been infectious, and their perimeter defense somewhat loose, with them on the opposite end of the spectrum from the Sun, allowing their opponents the most three point attempts in the league. The Sun overall aren’t the most three-point-happy team in the league, but one player I can see getting hot from deep is DeWanna Bonner, who’s averaging 5.8 three point attempts per game and coming off a game where she attempted 9 against the Chicago Sky. Bonner’s three-point line is hung at 1.5 at FanDuel, a bit deflated by her cold start to the season from deep. I’m anticipating a lot of volume from deep for Bonner tonight, I like her to have at least 2 threes.
WNBA Predictions Today – Best Player Prop: DeWanna Bonner over 1.5 threes
Los Angeles Sparks @ Indiana Fever
Last time these two teams met in LA, the Fever upset the Sparks on the road to earn their only win of the season thus far. Reigning Rookie of the Year Aliyah Boston had a get-right game against the Sparks, scoring a season-high 17 points after struggling mightily to open the season. The Sparks successfully held down Caitlin Clark’s scoring for most of the game, scoring 11 points on 4-14 shooting. But Clark was able to make her presence felt in other ways, setting or tying her career high in assists (8) and rebounds (10) in a near triple-double.
With Los Angeles allowing their opponents the most assists AND second most points-in-the-paint in the WNBA, I like Clark and Boston to run back what they were able to accomplish last time out. While they’ve struggled in the early goings of playing together, the upside of the Boston/Clark post-guard tandem is monumental, and we saw flashes of that against the Sparks last time. I’m hitting Clark over 6.5 assists and Boston over 11.5 points, and like a parlay of 8+ assists/15+ points as an elevator for both of these plays.
WNBA Predictions Today – Best Player Props: Aliyah Boston over 11.5 points and Caitlin Clark over 6.5 assists
Seattle Storm @ Chicago Sky
The Chicago Sky have looked really impressive over the last week. Projected as a non-playoff team, the Sky won a road game against the superstar-laden New York Liberty and almost pulled out a second consecutive upset of a top-tier team, losing by just four against the Connecticut Sun in their home opener.
A big part of the Sky’s early success has been their defense, architected by new head coach Theresa Weatherspoon. Chicago boasts the fifth best defensive rating in the league heading into today’s game. Chicago has been especially strong defending the perimeter, only the Lynx are allowing fewer three point attempts per 40 minutes than the Sky. It’s that three point shooting I want to key into.
Storm star Skylar Diggins-Smith has struggled with her three-point shot coming into this season, attempting just three shots from deep per game and making none in four of the six games she’s played so far. Diggins-Smith will have a highly skilled and energetic perimeter defender in Dana Evans in her–I see Evans dogging Diggins-Smith and keeping her in her rut. FanDuel’s hung her at 0.5 threes with the juice to the over, so let’s take plus money on the under.
WNBA Predictions Today – Best Player Prop: Skylar Diggins-Smith under 0.5 three pointers
