After a 2-0 start to the USFL season in Week 1, Week 2 returns with another four-game slate to dig into. With more information available, this piece will discuss all four games from a betting perspective ahead of this week’s USFL action. Here are the best USFL betting picks for Week 2.
Best USFL Betting Picks & Predictions | Week 2
Houston Gamblers vs. New Orleans Breakers
The Gamblers are 4-point underdogs to the New Orleans Breakers in a game with a 39 total. After finishing 3-7 last year and bringing in a new coaching staff, Houston showed almost no improvement by dropping its first game 29-13 to the Michigan Panthers. Conversely, the Breakers picked up a win over the Pittsburgh Maulers by a score of 22-15 after finishing 2022 with a 6-4 record.
First and foremost, this Houston offense looks brutal. The team ran 53 plays (fifth) and passed 45% of the time (eighth) behind horrific quarterback play. Both Kenji Bahar and Terry Wilson appeared in this game, but Bahar played the most. His 59% completion percentage, 4.95 yards per attempt and three turnovers all ranked near the bottom of the USFL in Week 1. Making matters worse, he will face a New Orleans defense that paced the USFL in 2022 and picked up right where it left off.
In their season debut, the Breakers only allowed 2.7 yards per pass (first) and 4.4 yards per carry (sixth). In fact, Pittsburgh put up 15 points but failed to score an offensive touchdown. The Maulers scored on defense and special teams to get them to 15 points. In total, Pittsburgh averaged an inept 3.3 yards per play against the Breakers in Week 1. Plus, the Houston offensive line allowed four sacks immediately in its Week 1 game.
On the other side, the Breakers should have no problem moving the ball. Houston allowed a league-worst 9.1 yards per pass in Week 1. Its 3.5 yards per rush was second best, but the pass defense gave up so much production that it did not matter. This putrid pass defense will clash with two-time CFL champion McLeod Bethel-Thompson, who passed for 302 yards in his season debut. The Breakers also have the best receiver room in the USFL, consisting of Johnnie Dixon, Jonathan Adams and newly signed tight end Sage Surratt. While 4 points seems like a lot to lay in Week 2, New Orleans is the significantly better team here.
Best USFL Bet: Breakers -4 (-110) at BetMGM
Memphis Showboats vs. Birmingham Stallions
After winning the inaugural USFL season, the Birmingham Stallions are 7.5-point favorites over Memphis in a game with a 44.5 total. In addition to its championship run, Birmingham immediately took care of business with a 27-10 win over New Jersey in Week 1. On the other side, Memphis dropped its season opener to the Philadelphia Stars by a score of 27-23.
To start this week, early money has come in on Birmingham. However, this might be a chance to buy low on Memphis and sell high on Birmingham with additional line movement. In its opening loss, Memphis out-gained Philadelphia 5.4 yards per play, compared to 4.8 from the Stars. Ultimately, Memphis missed a field goal and threw an interception on the Philadelphia 22-yard line, which proved the difference in the game.
On the other side, Birmingham appeared to roll New Jersey, but the game was much closer than the final score appeared. The Stallions averaged 6.3 yards per play, compared to 5.7 for the Generals. However, New Jersey turned the ball over twice while also failing to convert three key fourth downs. Specifically, those failed fourth-down conversions occurred at the Birmingham 25-yard line, 10-yard line and 1-yard line. While nothing should be taken away from Birmingham, box score watchers may not realize how close this game was.
On the field, Birmingham also allowed 6.4 yards per carry last week. Memphis appears to have one of the stronger running backs in the league behind former NFL back Alex Collins. Meanwhile, Birmingham continues its quarterback rotation despite the repeated superior play from J’Mar Smith. While Alex McGough has not necessarily been bad, keeping the better players off the field will bite Birmingham at some point. Plus, the Stallions lost their top receiver Marlon Williams to a torn ACL immediately in Week 1. Memphis allowed 6.5 yards per pass (fifth) and 3.9 yards per carry (fourth), but the defense generated five sacks.
This game should be closer than the spread indicates. However, waiting to take this later in the week may result in a better number, with money coming in on the Stallions.
Best USFL Bet: Showboats +7.5 (-105) at BetMGM
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New Jersey Generals vs. Pittsburgh Maulers
After losing their opening game to the 2022 champion Birmingham Stallions, the New Jerseys Generals are 2.5-point underdogs in a game with a 37 total. Despite the loss, this team still finished with a 9-1 record last season before losing to the Stars in the semifinals. On the other side, the Pittsburgh Maulers also dropped their opening game to the New Orleans Breakers by a score of 22-15.
There was quite a bit of noise for both teams in their opening game. First, the Generals played the Stallions much closer than the final score indicated; two turnovers and three turnovers on downs inside Birmingham 25-yard line contributed to the lopsided final score. On the other side, the Maulers failed to score an offensive touchdown despite logging 15 total points. They scored once on defense and once on special team to keep the game closer than it should have been.
Diving in further, Pittsburgh gave up 6.6 yards per pass (sixth) but only 2.7 yards per carry (first). However, the New Orleans Breakers struggled mightily up front. This was not the case for New Jersey, who only allowed two sacks and ran up 6.4 yards per carry against the Stallions. Meanwhile, New Jersey defended the run well but allowed 8.7 yards per pass (7th). This ranked only ahead of the Gamblers. However, Pittsburgh trotted out the single worst passing attack in the USFL in Week 1. James Morgan and Troy Williams both completed under 40% of their passes for fewer than 4.0 yards per attempt.
With New Jersey possessing two competent quarterbacks and getting solid play out of Dakota Prukop, this offense should be in line for positive regression. The line opened at just a field goal, so New Jersey presents plenty of value here.
Best USFL Bet: Generals -2.5 (-110) at BetMGM
Michigan Panthers vs. Philadelphia Stars
This is one of the harder games to handicap at first glance. Philadelphia is a 3-point favorite over the Michigan Panthers in a game with a 41.5 total. Both teams impressed right away in Week 1, with Michigan demolishing the Houston Gamblers 29-13 and Philadelphia knocking off the Memphis Showboats 27-23. Both teams could be due for some negative regression. Memphis out-gained Philadelphia and Michigan appears to have just demolished the worst in the league. This could lead to more value in the total instead of the spread.
Currently sitting at 43 points, this total looks a bit light. Starting with Philadelphia, this team retained its coaching staff and most of its skill position players from one of 2022’s best offenses. The Stars averaged 4.8 yards per play in Week 1 but improved throughout the game. Case Cookus completed 69% of his passes for 7.3 yards per attempt, throwing to veteran receiver targets in Devin Gray, Corey Coleman, Chris Rowland and Jordan Suell.
On the Michigan side, the Panthers also looked vastly improved behind the flawless play of Josh Love and Carson Strong. Together the two only accounted for two incomplete passes on 25 attempts. The team also received quality production from veterans Stevie Scott and Reggie Corbin at the running back position. Not to mention, the Philadelphia defense still allowed 5.8 yards per pass (fourth) and 4.6 yards per rush (seventh). With openings for Michigan to score, Philadelphia just needs to play a normal game for this contest to eclipse the total.
Best USFL Bet: Over 41.5 (-110) at BetMGM
