In what’s projected as the least equal game of the year, the 1-0 Houston Roughnecks are a 5.5-point home favorite over the 1-0 Arlington Renegades. Despite both teams’ solid play in Week 1, sharps are flocking to the Roughnecks for this one. Bettors looking for an Arlington Renegades-Houston Roughnecks prediction should hit this XFL bet for Week 2 at BetMGM — this spread has just gotten too wide.
Best Arlington Renegades-Houston Roughnecks XFL Bet & Predictions | Week 2
Arlington Renegades (+5.5) vs. Houston Roughnecks | Feb. 26, 7 p.m. ET
The Arlington Renegades looked like one of the better XFL teams in Week 1 offensively. Quarterback Drew Plitt completed 76% of his passes for 172 yards, no touchdowns and one interception — not great, but good enough for the Renegades to come out ahead. He got plenty of help from his defense, which scored two pick-sixes, but Arlington’s lack of scoring production fell more on bad fourth-down luck than an inability to move the ball. Plitt enters Week 2 ranked fourth among starting quarterbacks in passing efficiency (125.79) and fifth in adjusted net yards per attempt, or ANY/A (4.21). He leads Houston’s quarterback, Brandon Silvers, in the former metric (122.5) but trails him in the latter (4.58).
Arlington’s offense leaned on the rushing attack. They ran the ball 31 times, or on 55.4% of their plays, second-most in the XFL. However, they weren’t all that efficient — they averaged only 2.67 yards per rush attempt, which ranks just sixth. Running back De’Veon Smith carried the rock 15 times for only 42 yards and no scores. Arlington’s offense enters Week 2 ranked just sixth in yards per play (4.5). Co-offensive coordinators Jonathan Hayes and Chuck Long similarly emphasized the run when leading the St. Louis BattleHawks in 2020, so bettors should expect another run-heavy game plan.
In contrast, Houston’s offense uses a modern, pass-heavy scheme under young offensive coordinator A.J. Smith. The Roughnecks ran the ball only 32.3% of the time as they leaned on Silvers. Although Silvers played a solid game, he threw two interceptions and took three sacks for a loss of 16 yards. The unit enters Week 2 ranked third in yards per play (5.7) and yards per rush attempt (4.1). If Silvers can’t get his turnover issues under control, Cole McDonald, a 2020 seventh-round pick of the Tennessee Titans, is waiting in the wings.
These defenses appear evenly matched. Houston’s unit, led by head coach Wade Phillips, bent but didn’t break last week. The Orlando Guardians racked up an XFL-high 356 yards but scored only 12 points as their quarterbacks threw a combined three interceptions and took seven sacks. Still, Houston enters Week 2 ranked a concerning eighth in yards allowed per play (6.5). Arlington’s defense ranks fifth in the metric (5.4) and leads the XFL in yards allowed per rush attempt (1.6). They added three sacks for a loss of 13 yards and a pair of pick-sixes.
Sharp action has poured in Houston. The Roughnecks opened as a 4-point favorite but have seen their advantage bid up to 5 or 5.5. That number feels too generous — only one XFL game has been decided by more than four points thus far. Houston deserves to be favored but not by this much. Pinnacle, a sharp book, now has the juice stacked on Arlington to cover the +5. That means we’ve reached the buyback point, so head to BetMGM to get the extra half-point for a marginally tougher price. Readers yet to register at BetMGM can get up to $1,000 in first-bet insurance!
Best XFL Bet Renegades-Roughnecks: Renegades +5.5 (-115 for 0.57 Unit) at BetMGM
The legal gambling age is 21+ in most states. Gambling Problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
